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Lars Wiegand, Arwen Twitchett, Cornelia Schwierz, and Peter Knippertz

-and-whiskers plots of predicted precipitation and the observed 4-day box average of 37 mm as a dashed line. This value is much smaller than the maximum values discussed in section 3 due to area averaging during the gridding process of the ENSEMBLES data (see details in Haylock et al. 2008 ) and large spatial inhomogeneities. Global models cannot be expected to capture this mesoscale spatial variability. Therefore, the forecasts are more useful as indicators of a potentially significant rain event than for

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Paraskevi Giannakaki and Olivia Martius

. , and Bullock R. , 2006 : Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: Methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 134 , 1772 – 1784 , doi: 10.1175/MWR3145.1 . Davis, C. , Brown B. , Bullock R. , and Halley-Gotway J. , 2009 : The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) applied to numerical forecasts from the 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program . Wea. Forecasting , 24 , 1252 – 1267 , doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222241.1 . Dee, D. P. , and

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