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). Given the high contribution of cyclones to rainfall in this region, and the magnitude of projected declines, this may translate to an underestimation of the true projected rainfall declines for these highly populated areas including southern Australia, South Africa, and South America. Consequently, improved model projections for cyclone structure would improve decision making for water availability and risks associated with extremes including flooding. In Australia south of 25°S, surface cyclones
). Given the high contribution of cyclones to rainfall in this region, and the magnitude of projected declines, this may translate to an underestimation of the true projected rainfall declines for these highly populated areas including southern Australia, South Africa, and South America. Consequently, improved model projections for cyclone structure would improve decision making for water availability and risks associated with extremes including flooding. In Australia south of 25°S, surface cyclones
( Fu 1981 ) top-down energy and water balance equations to estimate climate change impact on mean annual runoff across Australia. The equations are easy to use, and have been widely applied to estimate water balance response to change in precipitation and other climate variables ( Oudin et al. 2008 ; Potter and Zhang 2009 ; Sivapalan et al. 2003 ; Zhang et al. 2008 ). Gardner (2009) used similar water balance equations and showed that the climate change impact on annual runoff estimates
( Fu 1981 ) top-down energy and water balance equations to estimate climate change impact on mean annual runoff across Australia. The equations are easy to use, and have been widely applied to estimate water balance response to change in precipitation and other climate variables ( Oudin et al. 2008 ; Potter and Zhang 2009 ; Sivapalan et al. 2003 ; Zhang et al. 2008 ). Gardner (2009) used similar water balance equations and showed that the climate change impact on annual runoff estimates
, for these regions there is either no change in annual rainfall or even a decrease in annual rainfall. Australia has a significantly high rainfall variability; therefore, many studies have examined rainfall variations throughout Australia ( Yu and Neil 1993 ; Nicholls and Kariko 1993 ; Nicholls et al. 1996 ; Haylock and Nicholls 2000 ; Nicholls 2003 ; Hardwick Jones et al. 2010 ; Li et al. 2011 ). Haylock and Nicholls (2000) also examined the trends in Australian extreme rainfall and found
, for these regions there is either no change in annual rainfall or even a decrease in annual rainfall. Australia has a significantly high rainfall variability; therefore, many studies have examined rainfall variations throughout Australia ( Yu and Neil 1993 ; Nicholls and Kariko 1993 ; Nicholls et al. 1996 ; Haylock and Nicholls 2000 ; Nicholls 2003 ; Hardwick Jones et al. 2010 ; Li et al. 2011 ). Haylock and Nicholls (2000) also examined the trends in Australian extreme rainfall and found
1. Introduction During each warm season in the Southern Hemisphere, from around November to April, approximately 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are observed in the Australian region between longitudes 90° and 160°E ( McBride and Keenan 1982 ; Dare and Davidson 2004 ; Ramsay et al. 2008 ). While it is well known that a TC’s strong winds inflict damage directly upon human infrastructure, causing economic losses and loss of human life ( Sheets 1990 ; Elsberry 2002 ; Rappaport 2000 ; Blake et al
1. Introduction During each warm season in the Southern Hemisphere, from around November to April, approximately 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are observed in the Australian region between longitudes 90° and 160°E ( McBride and Keenan 1982 ; Dare and Davidson 2004 ; Ramsay et al. 2008 ). While it is well known that a TC’s strong winds inflict damage directly upon human infrastructure, causing economic losses and loss of human life ( Sheets 1990 ; Elsberry 2002 ; Rappaport 2000 ; Blake et al
1. Introduction The northern Australian rainy season starts sometime between September and December, peaks during the austral summer, and ends rapidly in March or April ( Suppiah and Hennessy 1996 ). The remainder of the year is virtually dry. During the wet season, rainfall at most stations north of about 30°S is affected by active and break periods of the monsoon, the presence of tropical cyclones, and local thunderstorms. The monsoon refers to that time during the summer when the tropics are
1. Introduction The northern Australian rainy season starts sometime between September and December, peaks during the austral summer, and ends rapidly in March or April ( Suppiah and Hennessy 1996 ). The remainder of the year is virtually dry. During the wet season, rainfall at most stations north of about 30°S is affected by active and break periods of the monsoon, the presence of tropical cyclones, and local thunderstorms. The monsoon refers to that time during the summer when the tropics are
1. Introduction A common limitation in hydroclimatic risk assessment is the lack of suitably long records with which to assess decadal to multidecadal variability ( Kiem and Franks 2004 ; Rutherford et al. 2005 ; Cook et al. 2006 ; Verdon-Kidd and Kiem 2010 ; Gallant et al. 2012 ). For example, in Australia and much of the Southern Hemisphere, reliable rainfall and streamflow records are limited to the last approximately 90 years at best (with records even shorter for most regions
1. Introduction A common limitation in hydroclimatic risk assessment is the lack of suitably long records with which to assess decadal to multidecadal variability ( Kiem and Franks 2004 ; Rutherford et al. 2005 ; Cook et al. 2006 ; Verdon-Kidd and Kiem 2010 ; Gallant et al. 2012 ). For example, in Australia and much of the Southern Hemisphere, reliable rainfall and streamflow records are limited to the last approximately 90 years at best (with records even shorter for most regions
1. Introduction Australia generally experiences below-average rain during El Niño events. This relationship is thought to be modulated by interdecadal variations in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST; e.g., Nicholls et al. 1996 ; Power et al. 1999 ; Arblaster et al. 2002 ; Suppiah 2004 ). One of the largest recorded El Niño events occurred in 1997/98, yet this had only a modest impact on Australian rainfall. In contrast, severe drought in Australia resulted from the weak 2002/03 El
1. Introduction Australia generally experiences below-average rain during El Niño events. This relationship is thought to be modulated by interdecadal variations in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST; e.g., Nicholls et al. 1996 ; Power et al. 1999 ; Arblaster et al. 2002 ; Suppiah 2004 ). One of the largest recorded El Niño events occurred in 1997/98, yet this had only a modest impact on Australian rainfall. In contrast, severe drought in Australia resulted from the weak 2002/03 El
open-ocean conditions. Our aims are twofold. First, in section 2 , we describe how the QuikSCAT data have a similarly important role in forecasting severe weather for the coastal and open-ocean areas of forecast responsibility of the Perth Regional Forecasting Centre (RFC) and the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), in the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. In particular, we indicate how the QuikSCAT data are employed by the Perth RFC and TCWC, and discuss some of the present limitations
open-ocean conditions. Our aims are twofold. First, in section 2 , we describe how the QuikSCAT data have a similarly important role in forecasting severe weather for the coastal and open-ocean areas of forecast responsibility of the Perth Regional Forecasting Centre (RFC) and the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), in the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. In particular, we indicate how the QuikSCAT data are employed by the Perth RFC and TCWC, and discuss some of the present limitations
, we could establish an integrated perspective on long-term rainfall variations for further understanding the impacts of climate changes. Many studies have addressed the issue of rainfall pattern variations and changes in Australia by methods ranging from rain gauge data analysis to monitoring hydroclimatic extremes via remote sensing ( Haylock and Nicholls 2000 ; Spessa et al. 2005 ; Suppiah and Hennessy 1998 ; Xie et al. 2016a , b ). Vegetation in Australia is more sensitive to rainfall
, we could establish an integrated perspective on long-term rainfall variations for further understanding the impacts of climate changes. Many studies have addressed the issue of rainfall pattern variations and changes in Australia by methods ranging from rain gauge data analysis to monitoring hydroclimatic extremes via remote sensing ( Haylock and Nicholls 2000 ; Spessa et al. 2005 ; Suppiah and Hennessy 1998 ; Xie et al. 2016a , b ). Vegetation in Australia is more sensitive to rainfall
). The scorching sun, pulseless calm, and hot weather illustrate how a host of interpretative devices mediated the physical experience of climate in White’s diary: a tropical structure, observation, poetry, sickness, an exact record of latitude, and nautical omens such as sharks all emerge from the narrative. Many diaries of mid-nineteenth-century oceanic passengers include striking portrayals of tropical climate. Using examples archived in Britain and Australia, written on sailing voyages to
). The scorching sun, pulseless calm, and hot weather illustrate how a host of interpretative devices mediated the physical experience of climate in White’s diary: a tropical structure, observation, poetry, sickness, an exact record of latitude, and nautical omens such as sharks all emerge from the narrative. Many diaries of mid-nineteenth-century oceanic passengers include striking portrayals of tropical climate. Using examples archived in Britain and Australia, written on sailing voyages to
