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Ann Bostrom
,
Rebecca E. Morss
,
Jeffrey K. Lazo
,
Julie L. Demuth
,
Heather Lazrus
, and
Rebecca Hudson

1. Introduction Research on hurricane perceptions and evacuation decisions has expanded considerably in the last decade (e.g., Dash and Gladwin 2007 ; Huang et al. 2012 , 2016 ; Meyer et al. 2013 ; Rice 2014 ; Sherman-Morris et al. 2011 ; Wolshon et al. 2013 ), but there is as yet little understanding of hurricane forecasting, warning, and decision-making as a system. One approach to learning how to improve hazard warning systems is to develop an integrated understanding of multiple

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Joseph T. Ripberger
,
Hank C. Jenkins-Smith
,
Carol L. Silva
,
Deven E. Carlson
, and
Matthew Henderson

period. For example, “Tornado Alerts” (an account managed by Simple Weather Alert, which broadcasts NWS alerts to various communities around the county) contributed 3390 tweets, making them the most active user in this database. Despite this seemingly large number, frequent commenters are responsible for a relatively small portion of the total tweets about tornadoes during this time period. The top 25 commenters posted a total of 35 095 tweets, which is less than 1.2% of the 3 030 919 tweets

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Julie L. Demuth
,
Rebecca E. Morss
,
Leysia Palen
,
Kenneth M. Anderson
,
Jennings Anderson
,
Marina Kogan
,
Kevin Stowe
,
Melissa Bica
,
Heather Lazrus
,
Olga Wilhelmi
, and
Jen Henderson

to investigate timing, changes, and causal connections in what people share. In short, social media leave “digital traces” of individuals’ perspectives when faced with real-world, changing risks, providing researchers a window into people’s evolving risk assessments and decision-making ( Palen et al. 2010 ; Morss et al. 2017 ). Twitter is one social media platform that is particularly conducive to research because the data are publicly available ( Twitter 2016 ). Tweets are limited to 140

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Cara L. Cuite
,
Rachael L. Shwom
,
William K. Hallman
,
Rebecca E. Morss
, and
Julie L. Demuth

.e., because they live outside the evacuation zones) decide to evacuate. This can cause additional traffic and stress on shelters, sometimes making it more difficult for those who are at high risk to leave their homes. By choosing to leave their homes, “shadow evacuators” can also place themselves at higher risk. Decisions to evacuate as a hurricane approaches are complex and influenced by many factors ( Hasan et al. 2011 ; Lazo et al. 2015 ; Lindell and Perry 2012 ; Morss et al. 2015 ; Whitehead et al

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Joseph Ripberger
,
Andrew Bell
,
Andrew Fox
,
Aarika Forney
,
William Livingston
,
Cassidy Gaddie
,
Carol Silva
, and
Hank Jenkins-Smith

and relevant findings into the review as they become available. We use these steps in the sections that follow to describe our living review of research literature on the use of probability information in risk communication. a. Study domain The review focuses on research studies that directly examine the impact of probability information on protective action decision-making, intentions, and behaviors. Most of the studies in the review focus on the “best” or most effective way to

Open access
Keely Maxwell
,
Emily Eisenhauer
, and
Allyza Lustig

 al. 2014 ). Here, we use the term “social sciences” as a catchall for social, behavioral, and economic disciplines (e.g., geography, sociology, anthropology, economics), including applied fields (e.g., communications, public administration). Different types of assessments and chapters within assessments have distinct topical foci and orientation toward decisions, with implications for which disciplinary specialties and types of data are most relevant. This article provides a fresh perspective on the

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Astrid Kause
,
Tarlise Townsend
, and
Wolfgang Gaissmaier

uncertainty in individual environmental decisions . Top. Cogn. Sci. , 8 , 242 – 258 , https://doi.org/10.1111/tops.12172 . 10.1111/tops.12172 Garcia-Retamero , R. , and E. T. Cokely , 2014 : The influence of skills, message frame, and visual aids on prevention of sexually transmitted diseases . J. Behav. Decis. Making , 27 , 179 – 189 , https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1797 . 10.1002/bdm.1797 Greater London Authority , 2010 : The Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for London. Greater London

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Corey Davis
,
Heather Aldridge
,
Ryan Boyles
,
Karen S. McNeal
,
Lindsay Maudlin
, and
Rachel Atkins

and/or representative concentration pathways (RCPs). However, these resources have three primary limitations that we find are critical to communicating future climate projections: Single maps are used, which suggests erroneously that a single future climate projection might be appropriately used for decision-making instead of a spread of possible future climates across the downscaled GCMs. While this specific example is focused on climate projections, others have found similar issues in

Open access
Raul P. Lejano
,
Joyce Melcar Tan
, and
A. Meriwether W. Wilson

: A mental models study of hurricane forecast and warning production, communication, and decision-making . Wea. Climate Soc. , 8 , 111 – 129 , doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0033.1 . Bovens, M. , and Hart P. , 1996 : Understanding Policy Fiascoes. Transaction, 173 pp . Casteel, M. A. , 2016 : Communicating increased risk: An empirical investigation of the National Weather Service’s impact-based warnings . Wea. Climate Soc. , 8 , 219 – 232 , doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0044.1 . Chen, T

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Risa Palm
,
Toby Bolsen
, and
Justin T. Kingsland

reducing climate pollution ( Bord et al. 1998 ; Bostrom et al. 1994 ; Kempton 1991 ; Sterman and Sweeney 2007 ; Whitmarsh 2009 ). When individuals are exposed to communications that emphasize specific considerations about climate change, such as recommendations to engage in climate-friendly behaviors or support proclimate policies, they may prioritize the highlighted consideration when forming their opinion, often shifting their opinion in the direction of the message; this is referred to as an

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