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mobilize funds and influence the agendas of institutional partners in the face of competing priorities. Second, it provides insights that inform targeting of effort (e.g., farming systems, locations, forecast characteristics, and decision support tools) where the net benefits are likely to be greatest. The substantial body of research on the value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture makes use of both quantitative economic valuation and a range of qualitative social science approaches to
mobilize funds and influence the agendas of institutional partners in the face of competing priorities. Second, it provides insights that inform targeting of effort (e.g., farming systems, locations, forecast characteristics, and decision support tools) where the net benefits are likely to be greatest. The substantial body of research on the value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture makes use of both quantitative economic valuation and a range of qualitative social science approaches to
further advanced the information of QPFs with the concept of probability forecast. This study investigates the forecast skill and potential economic value (EV) of QPFs and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) for the severe typhoons by an operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Taiwan area. Rather than the deterministic viewpoint on a single forecast, the EPS can generate an approximate description of the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast state based on a finite number of members
further advanced the information of QPFs with the concept of probability forecast. This study investigates the forecast skill and potential economic value (EV) of QPFs and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) for the severe typhoons by an operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Taiwan area. Rather than the deterministic viewpoint on a single forecast, the EPS can generate an approximate description of the probability density function (PDF) of the forecast state based on a finite number of members
approaches assessing the economic value of seasonal forecasts. Here, the authors distinguish ex-ante evaluation (i.e., assessing the benefits of forecasts in advance of their adoption by society) from ex-post evaluation, which seeks to assess observed outcomes following adoption of actual forecast schemes. Even if seasonal forecasts are made routinely in sub-Saharan Africa (as in other parts of the world), adoption by farmers is too low to provide any reliable ex-post evaluation ( Meza et al. 2008
approaches assessing the economic value of seasonal forecasts. Here, the authors distinguish ex-ante evaluation (i.e., assessing the benefits of forecasts in advance of their adoption by society) from ex-post evaluation, which seeks to assess observed outcomes following adoption of actual forecast schemes. Even if seasonal forecasts are made routinely in sub-Saharan Africa (as in other parts of the world), adoption by farmers is too low to provide any reliable ex-post evaluation ( Meza et al. 2008
always the events of interest, nor would it imply any predictability of the intensity of landfalling storms, which has a large effect on storm damage. Here, we explore the potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. To provide an upper bound on the potential utility of such forecasts, we first examine the near-best-case scenario of perfect predictability of large-scale conditions; later, we explore the effects of assuming more realistic forecast skill. We here focus on the economic
always the events of interest, nor would it imply any predictability of the intensity of landfalling storms, which has a large effect on storm damage. Here, we explore the potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. To provide an upper bound on the potential utility of such forecasts, we first examine the near-best-case scenario of perfect predictability of large-scale conditions; later, we explore the effects of assuming more realistic forecast skill. We here focus on the economic
paper presents a verification study of the skill and potential economic value of deterministic forecasts of ice growth (also, active icing ; Bredesen et al. 2017b ). The phase of active ice accumulation on blades has been associated with the strongest production losses (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2012 ; Bergström et al. 2013 ); it is also the sensitive phase during which preventive anti-icing can make a difference. Icing forecasts for the range up to day 3 are produced from global and limited
paper presents a verification study of the skill and potential economic value of deterministic forecasts of ice growth (also, active icing ; Bredesen et al. 2017b ). The phase of active ice accumulation on blades has been associated with the strongest production losses (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2012 ; Bergström et al. 2013 ); it is also the sensitive phase during which preventive anti-icing can make a difference. Icing forecasts for the range up to day 3 are produced from global and limited
countries provide public meteorological information services by a government-sponsored institution, government has a crucial role in the development and implementation of a new meteorological information services. To provide justification for government investment, it is important to quantitatively measure the effect of meteorological information services on the public’s quality of life and social welfare. In this context, there has been much research aimed at estimating the economic value of
countries provide public meteorological information services by a government-sponsored institution, government has a crucial role in the development and implementation of a new meteorological information services. To provide justification for government investment, it is important to quantitatively measure the effect of meteorological information services on the public’s quality of life and social welfare. In this context, there has been much research aimed at estimating the economic value of
common to them is that they acknowledge the importance of displaying forecast quality in a multidimensional fashion (i.e., via a diagram). Another well-studied problem involves the situation when a binary decision or action is to be based on forecasts ( Doswell and Brooks 1998 ; Katz and Murphy 1997 ; Mason 2004 ; Richardson 2000 ; Wandishin and Brooks 2002 ; Wilks 2001 , 2006 ). The concept that arises from considering such problems is the economic value of the forecasts. The economic value
common to them is that they acknowledge the importance of displaying forecast quality in a multidimensional fashion (i.e., via a diagram). Another well-studied problem involves the situation when a binary decision or action is to be based on forecasts ( Doswell and Brooks 1998 ; Katz and Murphy 1997 ; Mason 2004 ; Richardson 2000 ; Wandishin and Brooks 2002 ; Wilks 2001 , 2006 ). The concept that arises from considering such problems is the economic value of the forecasts. The economic value
the Swiss road transport system, and Lazo and Chestnut (2002) analyzed the economic value of weather forecasts to the U.S. household sector. Moreover, the literature on the methods for assessing the economic benefits of meteorological service provision is also rather broad, as the following examples show: Frei (2010) , Leviäkangas (2009) , Leviäkangas and Hautala (2009) , Gunasekera (2004) , Freebairn and Zillmann (2002) , and Anaman et al. 1995 . In weather-sensitive activities
the Swiss road transport system, and Lazo and Chestnut (2002) analyzed the economic value of weather forecasts to the U.S. household sector. Moreover, the literature on the methods for assessing the economic benefits of meteorological service provision is also rather broad, as the following examples show: Frei (2010) , Leviäkangas (2009) , Leviäkangas and Hautala (2009) , Gunasekera (2004) , Freebairn and Zillmann (2002) , and Anaman et al. 1995 . In weather-sensitive activities
; Keogh et al. 2006 ). Quantifying the economic value of the use of SCFs in stocking rate decisions provides useful information to drive management change. Studies investigating value utilize many different methodological strategies. These include various forecast types (e.g., theoretical, operational), forecast characteristics (e.g., lead time, length), and forecast variables (e.g., rainfall, growth days). All these factors introduce considerable variability between reported forecast values. For
; Keogh et al. 2006 ). Quantifying the economic value of the use of SCFs in stocking rate decisions provides useful information to drive management change. Studies investigating value utilize many different methodological strategies. These include various forecast types (e.g., theoretical, operational), forecast characteristics (e.g., lead time, length), and forecast variables (e.g., rainfall, growth days). All these factors introduce considerable variability between reported forecast values. For
of SREF forecast values ( Anderson-Berry et al. 2004 ). Complete evaluation of the benefit of a forecast system should consider the weather sensitivity and decision-making processes of a particular end user or group of users. Societal and environmental impacts are also important components of weather forecast evaluation; however, in most cases economic impacts are easier to directly identify and quantify. In a study by Roulston et al. (2006) , laboratory experiments documented the ability of
of SREF forecast values ( Anderson-Berry et al. 2004 ). Complete evaluation of the benefit of a forecast system should consider the weather sensitivity and decision-making processes of a particular end user or group of users. Societal and environmental impacts are also important components of weather forecast evaluation; however, in most cases economic impacts are easier to directly identify and quantify. In a study by Roulston et al. (2006) , laboratory experiments documented the ability of
