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2326MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWVOLUME 112A Forecasting Model for the Onset of a Major El Ni-oMASAMICHI INOUE AND JAMES J. O'BRIENMesoscale Air Sea interaction Group, The Florida Stale University, Tallahassee, FL 32306(Manuscript received 3 December 1983, in final form 17 August 1984)ABSTRACTThe feasibility of a forecasting scheme for predicting the onset of a major El Ni-o in the ocean isdemonstrated using the linear numerical model of Busalacchi and O'Brien and the interannual componentsof the
2326MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWVOLUME 112A Forecasting Model for the Onset of a Major El Ni-oMASAMICHI INOUE AND JAMES J. O'BRIENMesoscale Air Sea interaction Group, The Florida Stale University, Tallahassee, FL 32306(Manuscript received 3 December 1983, in final form 17 August 1984)ABSTRACTThe feasibility of a forecasting scheme for predicting the onset of a major El Ni-o in the ocean isdemonstrated using the linear numerical model of Busalacchi and O'Brien and the interannual componentsof the
datasets are part of the Satellite CloudClimatology Project (ISCCP) B3 product. It was demonstrated that it is now possible to derive long-term surfaceSWJ,, which can be useful in climate studies, and that the accuracy of the derived fields is sufficient to detectinterannual differences that can exceed at times 70 W m'2. The variability of the daily totals of SWJ, from themonthly means was similar during three of the four years investigated, yet, during the El Ni-o year of 1982-83, north of lO-N such
datasets are part of the Satellite CloudClimatology Project (ISCCP) B3 product. It was demonstrated that it is now possible to derive long-term surfaceSWJ,, which can be useful in climate studies, and that the accuracy of the derived fields is sufficient to detectinterannual differences that can exceed at times 70 W m'2. The variability of the daily totals of SWJ, from themonthly means was similar during three of the four years investigated, yet, during the El Ni-o year of 1982-83, north of lO-N such
during northern winter. Mort. Wea. Rev., 113, 941-961.Woodruff, S. D., R. J. Slutz, R. L. Jenne, and P. M. Steurer, 1987: A Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 68, 1239-1250.Wyrtki, K., 1975: El Ni~o: The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific to atmospheric forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 5, 572-584. , and B. Kilonsky, 1984: Mean water and current structure during the Hawaii-to-Tahiti shuttle experiment. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 14, 242-254.Yamagata, T., 1985
during northern winter. Mort. Wea. Rev., 113, 941-961.Woodruff, S. D., R. J. Slutz, R. L. Jenne, and P. M. Steurer, 1987: A Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 68, 1239-1250.Wyrtki, K., 1975: El Ni~o: The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific to atmospheric forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 5, 572-584. , and B. Kilonsky, 1984: Mean water and current structure during the Hawaii-to-Tahiti shuttle experiment. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 14, 242-254.Yamagata, T., 1985
. Jenne, 1988: Global distribution of total cloud cover and cloud type amounts over the ocean. NCAR Tech. Note TN-317+STR, 42 pp. and 170 maps.Whetton, P. H., and I. Rutherfurd, 1994: El Nifio-Southern Oscil lation teleconnections in the Eastern Hemisphere over the last 500 years. Clim. Change, 21, 221-253.--., D. Adamson, and M. A. J. Williams, 1990: Rainfall and river flow variability in Africa, Australia and East Asia linked to El Ni~o-Southern Oscillation events. Proc., Symp. on
. Jenne, 1988: Global distribution of total cloud cover and cloud type amounts over the ocean. NCAR Tech. Note TN-317+STR, 42 pp. and 170 maps.Whetton, P. H., and I. Rutherfurd, 1994: El Nifio-Southern Oscil lation teleconnections in the Eastern Hemisphere over the last 500 years. Clim. Change, 21, 221-253.--., D. Adamson, and M. A. J. Williams, 1990: Rainfall and river flow variability in Africa, Australia and East Asia linked to El Ni~o-Southern Oscillation events. Proc., Symp. on
). REFERENCESBallentine, R. J., 1980: A numerical investigation of New Englandcoastal frontogenesis. Mon. Wen. Rev., 108, 1479-1497.Barnett, T., N. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebaik, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988: On the prediction of the El Nino of 1986 1987. Science, 241, 192-196.504 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME8Bell, G. D., and L. F. Bosart, 1988: Appalachian cold
). REFERENCESBallentine, R. J., 1980: A numerical investigation of New Englandcoastal frontogenesis. Mon. Wen. Rev., 108, 1479-1497.Barnett, T., N. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebaik, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988: On the prediction of the El Nino of 1986 1987. Science, 241, 192-196.504 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME8Bell, G. D., and L. F. Bosart, 1988: Appalachian cold
finds only the subtropical anomalies to be significant with 95% confidence. Figure lbillustrates the large variability among the eight El Nifiocases that make up the warm composite. For example,whereas the composite has weak t2 anomalies in themiddle latitudes between 35 o and 45 °N, most individual cases acquire a maximum amplitude in this region,albeit of varying sign. Zonally averaged wind anomaliesof consistent sign occur only in a small portion of thesubtropics, and it is clear that both
finds only the subtropical anomalies to be significant with 95% confidence. Figure lbillustrates the large variability among the eight El Nifiocases that make up the warm composite. For example,whereas the composite has weak t2 anomalies in themiddle latitudes between 35 o and 45 °N, most individual cases acquire a maximum amplitude in this region,albeit of varying sign. Zonally averaged wind anomaliesof consistent sign occur only in a small portion of thesubtropics, and it is clear that both
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&;E ,a Z E F ZDPprcud( ~l o n t W i lExtrenioi23.Q5 23.6361.36.30 n-ni . 2 3 .6 ~99 a mZ N G I0.0"5 et %I9s ::X N -I.-fiDcprrsric rlny0.13 n. ni23.465h -e EL"6;sU C.E bIfiExtiomor23.455 23.4740 .1 1 n.m23.552'I. 3;2:2 sL.bczE ? a of i 'E d '2 d-Anorold,,,I --Iorcurln I Iorcurlnl Anorold.--tlorcurin Iorcurlnl Anorold.-I-~38.30 n. 10.39 n. nim.23.!30 1 23.708,.jr5ie_- - '25%lorcurial Anorold.--Anorold.D.CO.~O n m.23.720'14on.m23.7013.15 n. m23.993.15 n. ni0.3 n. m23.627a a XM*z.5 k t az p Ea 2
1979, no El Nifio was noticed in the easternPacific.2. Salinity in the western Pacific In the western Pacific, anomalies of surface salinityare the main consequences of El Ni~o events. Usually, a pre E1 Ni~o period is characterized in theequatorial area by high salinities (Donguy and H6nin,1978a) due to a combination of upwelling~ west,yardadvection and evaporation. Conversely, a post ElNii~o period is characterized by low salinity due tothe absence of upwelling, eastward advection andrainfall
1979, no El Nifio was noticed in the easternPacific.2. Salinity in the western Pacific In the western Pacific, anomalies of surface salinityare the main consequences of El Ni~o events. Usually, a pre E1 Ni~o period is characterized in theequatorial area by high salinities (Donguy and H6nin,1978a) due to a combination of upwelling~ west,yardadvection and evaporation. Conversely, a post ElNii~o period is characterized by low salinity due tothe absence of upwelling, eastward advection andrainfall
370 hfONTI-ILY WEATIJ El3 REVIEW OC'TOREE 1937POSITIONS AND AREAS OF SUN SPOTS-Continued POSITIONS AND AREAS OF SUN SPOTS---ContinuedD n l e' I l l .I :i Jil ..I1S i1 BX.o 559 :I1I rl .-, 119 2511 111 2:10 B!0 I .f . 13 ... 1:;. 4 1 -. 11;. 014. I !+I:⟨.l⟩I!I. 4 -2i.U:,i. I +L'4.ll71.4 +l l .USI. 4 - i;. I1it12 4 +I 2 (119,s -2 l .i lw. s +za. ilXLS +l l .U!tl.S -1i.C1112. s +14. I 1109.3 +13.5!I 1;I 1 nI 1 2Ill 5::Clrt. IC..Opt. l i .. I2L .........11.1 1 . ...-I....?!I1 1 .......24
370 hfONTI-ILY WEATIJ El3 REVIEW OC'TOREE 1937POSITIONS AND AREAS OF SUN SPOTS-Continued POSITIONS AND AREAS OF SUN SPOTS---ContinuedD n l e' I l l .I :i Jil ..I1S i1 BX.o 559 :I1I rl .-, 119 2511 111 2:10 B!0 I .f . 13 ... 1:;. 4 1 -. 11;. 014. I !+I:⟨.l⟩I!I. 4 -2i.U:,i. I +L'4.ll71.4 +l l .USI. 4 - i;. I1it12 4 +I 2 (119,s -2 l .i lw. s +za. ilXLS +l l .U!tl.S -1i.C1112. s +14. I 1109.3 +13.5!I 1;I 1 nI 1 2Ill 5::Clrt. IC..Opt. l i .. I2L .........11.1 1 . ...-I....?!I1 1 .......24
?.....Savannah 1 ..._._.- .a4 $85 ; sa;"El 5 8E; s"1 - $5 d o n + ----In. In. +l. 1+2. 4 1.35 17 +2 2 1.30 17+1.0 .86 19+2.2 1.11 15+1.21.30 +2.7 3.07 13+. 2 1.54 15 +.8 1.13 14 -.5 1.04 16-.2 .79 16+.3 .a ia+l. 3 +2.5 1.45 17+2.0 1.20 19 +1.6 1.25 16+5.4 1.91 15 +1.9 1.03 17+1.0 .98 14+i.s 1.61 17+3.7 2.29 ia+3. a 1.15 14+. 4 1. oa 14-.~1 .4 2 11-.:ji.so 9+.4 1.51 14 -2.2 .59 10-2.0 .@I-1.1-1.5 .83 10 -1.61.29 10-2.2 1.17 8-1.7 .73 11-. 6 1.07 8-.z 1.40 11 +.31.11 11 -1.8 .75 a -1.2 .77 5-. i 1.27 7 -1
?.....Savannah 1 ..._._.- .a4 $85 ; sa;"El 5 8E; s"1 - $5 d o n + ----In. In. +l. 1+2. 4 1.35 17 +2 2 1.30 17+1.0 .86 19+2.2 1.11 15+1.21.30 +2.7 3.07 13+. 2 1.54 15 +.8 1.13 14 -.5 1.04 16-.2 .79 16+.3 .a ia+l. 3 +2.5 1.45 17+2.0 1.20 19 +1.6 1.25 16+5.4 1.91 15 +1.9 1.03 17+1.0 .98 14+i.s 1.61 17+3.7 2.29 ia+3. a 1.15 14+. 4 1. oa 14-.~1 .4 2 11-.:ji.so 9+.4 1.51 14 -2.2 .59 10-2.0 .@I-1.1-1.5 .83 10 -1.61.29 10-2.2 1.17 8-1.7 .73 11-. 6 1.07 8-.z 1.40 11 +.31.11 11 -1.8 .75 a -1.2 .77 5-. i 1.27 7 -1
