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1. Introduction In the past two decades, major progress has been made in understanding and modeling the coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific, in particular the salient feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon ( McPhaden et al. 1998 ; Neelin et al. 1998 ; Wallace et al. 1998 ). Moreover, it has been recognized that the tropical Pacific climate has an abundance of coupled air–sea phenomena ( Jin 2001 ). The observed spectra for tropical sea surface
1. Introduction In the past two decades, major progress has been made in understanding and modeling the coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific, in particular the salient feature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon ( McPhaden et al. 1998 ; Neelin et al. 1998 ; Wallace et al. 1998 ). Moreover, it has been recognized that the tropical Pacific climate has an abundance of coupled air–sea phenomena ( Jin 2001 ). The observed spectra for tropical sea surface
surface temperature (SST), midtroposphere moisture (e.g., 600 hPa), and vertical wind shear ( Camargo et al. 2007 ; Chia and Ropelewski 2002 ; Gray 1979 ). The steering flow is measured by midtroposphere wind fields, which are substantially influenced by the subtropical high ( Chan 1984 , 2005 ; Chan and Gray 1982 ; Harr and Elsberry 1991 , 1995a , b ; Holland 1993 ). The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ( Bjerknes 1969 ) is a powerful interplay between the tropical ocean and atmosphere in
surface temperature (SST), midtroposphere moisture (e.g., 600 hPa), and vertical wind shear ( Camargo et al. 2007 ; Chia and Ropelewski 2002 ; Gray 1979 ). The steering flow is measured by midtroposphere wind fields, which are substantially influenced by the subtropical high ( Chan 1984 , 2005 ; Chan and Gray 1982 ; Harr and Elsberry 1991 , 1995a , b ; Holland 1993 ). The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ( Bjerknes 1969 ) is a powerful interplay between the tropical ocean and atmosphere in
equatorial Pacific thermocline is closely associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which results from the coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific ( McPhaden et al. 2006 ). Jin (1997) proposed the recharge oscillator mechanism including zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback to illuminate the role of the upper-oceanic heat content in the ENSO cycle. Variations in the equatorial thermocline are accompanied by subsurface ocean temperature anomalies (SOTAs
equatorial Pacific thermocline is closely associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which results from the coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific ( McPhaden et al. 2006 ). Jin (1997) proposed the recharge oscillator mechanism including zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback to illuminate the role of the upper-oceanic heat content in the ENSO cycle. Variations in the equatorial thermocline are accompanied by subsurface ocean temperature anomalies (SOTAs
1. Introduction El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are two dominant drivers for year-to-year climate variability on earth. Predicting those climate modes is of great value because of their large environmental and societal effects, both globally and regionally. El Niño is now generally predictable at a lead time of several seasons (e.g., Palmer et al. 2004 ; Luo et al. 2005a ; Saha et al. 2006 ; Jin et al. 2008 ), and it may be predicted even up to two years in advance for
1. Introduction El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are two dominant drivers for year-to-year climate variability on earth. Predicting those climate modes is of great value because of their large environmental and societal effects, both globally and regionally. El Niño is now generally predictable at a lead time of several seasons (e.g., Palmer et al. 2004 ; Luo et al. 2005a ; Saha et al. 2006 ; Jin et al. 2008 ), and it may be predicted even up to two years in advance for
1. Introduction El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the source of the most energetic sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Pacific on the interannual time scale. El Niño and La Niña events vary from event to event in their characteristics. In addition to the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events with the strongest SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern Pacific (such as the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events), a different type of El Niño that has its maximum SSTA more in
1. Introduction El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the source of the most energetic sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Pacific on the interannual time scale. El Niño and La Niña events vary from event to event in their characteristics. In addition to the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events with the strongest SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern Pacific (such as the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events), a different type of El Niño that has its maximum SSTA more in
1. Introduction El Niño usually means a significant warming of the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the strongest interannual climate variation signal in the coupled air–sea system and has profound impacts on global climate. Bjerknes (1969) first linked El Niño with the Southern Oscillation, and pointed out that they are two different aspects of the same phenomenon, which is called ENSO now. During the recent decades, a new type of ENSO event
1. Introduction El Niño usually means a significant warming of the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the strongest interannual climate variation signal in the coupled air–sea system and has profound impacts on global climate. Bjerknes (1969) first linked El Niño with the Southern Oscillation, and pointed out that they are two different aspects of the same phenomenon, which is called ENSO now. During the recent decades, a new type of ENSO event
1. Introduction As the most prominent interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts significant climate influences in many regions worldwide. Scientists have focused on the mechanisms involved in ENSO and have attempted to predict ENSO events with a lead time of 1 year or more ( McPhaden et al. 1998 ; Latif et al. 1998 ; Barnston et al. 2012 ). Generally, there are two prerequisites for an El Niño event: anomalous warm waters accumulating in the
1. Introduction As the most prominent interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts significant climate influences in many regions worldwide. Scientists have focused on the mechanisms involved in ENSO and have attempted to predict ENSO events with a lead time of 1 year or more ( McPhaden et al. 1998 ; Latif et al. 1998 ; Barnston et al. 2012 ). Generally, there are two prerequisites for an El Niño event: anomalous warm waters accumulating in the
1. Introduction The approximate “phase locking” of El Niño events to the seasonal cycle (i.e., the tendency of El Niño events to peak during the second half of the calendar year) suggests that interactions between interannual and seasonal time scales are important contributors to tropical climate variability. This suggestion has motivated many studies, which have provided several hypotheses on the complex mechanisms at work for the existence of such interactions. In the present paper we focus
1. Introduction The approximate “phase locking” of El Niño events to the seasonal cycle (i.e., the tendency of El Niño events to peak during the second half of the calendar year) suggests that interactions between interannual and seasonal time scales are important contributors to tropical climate variability. This suggestion has motivated many studies, which have provided several hypotheses on the complex mechanisms at work for the existence of such interactions. In the present paper we focus
1. Introduction El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest climate signal on interannual time scales and has pronounced impacts on global weather and climate ( Horel and Wallace 1981 , 1982 ; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987 ; Lau and Nath 1996 ; Webster et al. 1998 ). It is recognized as a primary predictor determining the interannual variability of the summer climate over the East Asia ( Fu and Ye 1988 ; Huang and Wu 1989 ; Chang et al. 2000 ; Chou et al. 2009 ; Lin and Lu 2009
1. Introduction El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest climate signal on interannual time scales and has pronounced impacts on global weather and climate ( Horel and Wallace 1981 , 1982 ; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987 ; Lau and Nath 1996 ; Webster et al. 1998 ). It is recognized as a primary predictor determining the interannual variability of the summer climate over the East Asia ( Fu and Ye 1988 ; Huang and Wu 1989 ; Chang et al. 2000 ; Chou et al. 2009 ; Lin and Lu 2009
1. Introduction During El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, substantial climate anomalies occur throughout the Tropics outside of the Pacific source region (hereafter, the “remote Tropics”). Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific drive convective heating anomalies that in turn cause remote tropical changes through a suite of teleconnected dynamical and thermodynamic linkages, commonly referred to as the atmospheric bridge ( Lau and Nath 1996
1. Introduction During El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, substantial climate anomalies occur throughout the Tropics outside of the Pacific source region (hereafter, the “remote Tropics”). Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific drive convective heating anomalies that in turn cause remote tropical changes through a suite of teleconnected dynamical and thermodynamic linkages, commonly referred to as the atmospheric bridge ( Lau and Nath 1996
