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1. Introduction Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province is the largest freshwater lake in China and is historically a region of severe floods. At its northern end, Poyang Lake drains into the Changjiang (Yangtze River), the longest river in China. The five major rivers in Jiangxi that flow into Poyang Lake have headwaters in the surrounding mountains ( Figure 1 ). During the summer wet season, May–September, the lake covers an area of 3800 km 2 , inundating the low-lying alluvial plains surrounding the
1. Introduction Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province is the largest freshwater lake in China and is historically a region of severe floods. At its northern end, Poyang Lake drains into the Changjiang (Yangtze River), the longest river in China. The five major rivers in Jiangxi that flow into Poyang Lake have headwaters in the surrounding mountains ( Figure 1 ). During the summer wet season, May–September, the lake covers an area of 3800 km 2 , inundating the low-lying alluvial plains surrounding the
1. Introduction The roles and interactions of climate factors in causing flooding in the lower Brahmaputra basin are not well understood. Improved predictions of monsoon flooding could reduce loss of life and economic damage. For example, the 1998 Brahmaputra–Ganges–Meghna flood inundated 69% of Bangladesh ( Mirza 2003 ), displacing over 30 million persons and causing over 1000 deaths ( DMB 1998 ). Of the three major rivers that contribute to flooding in Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra is the
1. Introduction The roles and interactions of climate factors in causing flooding in the lower Brahmaputra basin are not well understood. Improved predictions of monsoon flooding could reduce loss of life and economic damage. For example, the 1998 Brahmaputra–Ganges–Meghna flood inundated 69% of Bangladesh ( Mirza 2003 ), displacing over 30 million persons and causing over 1000 deaths ( DMB 1998 ). Of the three major rivers that contribute to flooding in Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra is the
1. Introduction The growth and prosperity of human civilization over the centuries resulted in more than 40% of the world’s population living within 15 km of rivers ( Small and Cohen 2004 ), dramatically increasing the vulnerability to floods. By 2050, 70% of the world’s population is projected to be living in large cities ( Cohen 2003 ). With increasing urbanization and changing patterns of climate and extreme weather ( Burby 2001 ; McCarthy et al. 2001 ; Montz and Gruntfest 2002
1. Introduction The growth and prosperity of human civilization over the centuries resulted in more than 40% of the world’s population living within 15 km of rivers ( Small and Cohen 2004 ), dramatically increasing the vulnerability to floods. By 2050, 70% of the world’s population is projected to be living in large cities ( Cohen 2003 ). With increasing urbanization and changing patterns of climate and extreme weather ( Burby 2001 ; McCarthy et al. 2001 ; Montz and Gruntfest 2002
New York City's Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding
Storm Surge Modeling of Past Cyclones
New York City, New York (NYC), is extremely vulnerable to coastal flooding; thus, verification and improvements in storm surge models are needed in order to protect both life and property. This paper highlights the Stony Brook Storm Surge (SBSS) modeling system. It utilizes surface winds and sea level pressures from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) or the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive the Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC). For this study, the MM5 is utilized at 12-km grid spacing and ADCIRC is run on an unstructured grid down to ~10-m resolution in areas around Long Island and NYC.
This paper describes the SBSS and its performance across the NYC region during the 11–12 December 1992 nor'easter and Tropical Storm Floyd on 16–17 September 1999. During the 1992 event, east-northeasterly surface winds of 15–25 m s−1 (30–50 kts) persisted for nearly 24 h, while hurricane-force winds (35–40 m s−1) occurred for a few hours just south of western Long Island. This created a 1.0–1.5-m storm surge around NYC and western Long Island Sound over three tidal cycles. ADCIRC successfully simulated the peak water levels to within ~10%, and it realistically simulated some of the flooding across lower Manhattan. The surface winds for Tropical Storm Floyd were only 5–10 m s−1 weaker than the 1992 event, but no coastal flooding occurred during Floyd, because the storm approached during a low tide. Additional Floyd simulations were completed by shifting the storm's landfall to the spring high tide the previous week, and by doubling the wind speed to mimic a category-1 hurricane. A combination of the spring high tide and a category-1 hurricane scenario during Floyd would have resulted in moderate flooding at several locations around NYC.
New York City, New York (NYC), is extremely vulnerable to coastal flooding; thus, verification and improvements in storm surge models are needed in order to protect both life and property. This paper highlights the Stony Brook Storm Surge (SBSS) modeling system. It utilizes surface winds and sea level pressures from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) or the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive the Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC). For this study, the MM5 is utilized at 12-km grid spacing and ADCIRC is run on an unstructured grid down to ~10-m resolution in areas around Long Island and NYC.
This paper describes the SBSS and its performance across the NYC region during the 11–12 December 1992 nor'easter and Tropical Storm Floyd on 16–17 September 1999. During the 1992 event, east-northeasterly surface winds of 15–25 m s−1 (30–50 kts) persisted for nearly 24 h, while hurricane-force winds (35–40 m s−1) occurred for a few hours just south of western Long Island. This created a 1.0–1.5-m storm surge around NYC and western Long Island Sound over three tidal cycles. ADCIRC successfully simulated the peak water levels to within ~10%, and it realistically simulated some of the flooding across lower Manhattan. The surface winds for Tropical Storm Floyd were only 5–10 m s−1 weaker than the 1992 event, but no coastal flooding occurred during Floyd, because the storm approached during a low tide. Additional Floyd simulations were completed by shifting the storm's landfall to the spring high tide the previous week, and by doubling the wind speed to mimic a category-1 hurricane. A combination of the spring high tide and a category-1 hurricane scenario during Floyd would have resulted in moderate flooding at several locations around NYC.
1. Introduction In this paper, we examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of extreme floods through analyses that center on the June 2008 flooding in Iowa ( Fig. 1 ). The 2008 flooding was produced by a series of storms extending from 29 May through 12 June 2008. The 13 June 2008 flood peak of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids (drainage area of 16 861 km 2 ) of 3964 m 3 s −1 was almost twice the previous maximum from a record of 110 years. The spatial extent of flooding in
1. Introduction In this paper, we examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of extreme floods through analyses that center on the June 2008 flooding in Iowa ( Fig. 1 ). The 2008 flooding was produced by a series of storms extending from 29 May through 12 June 2008. The 13 June 2008 flood peak of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids (drainage area of 16 861 km 2 ) of 3964 m 3 s −1 was almost twice the previous maximum from a record of 110 years. The spatial extent of flooding in
DECEMBPR, 1919. MONTHL1 WEATHER REVIEW.THE DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM FLOODS.By ALFRED J. HENRY, Meteorologist.[Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C.1861SYNoPmx--(l) The records of both American and European rivers ehow an average of 7 to 10 great floods per century. (?) Great floods are primarily due to precipittltion,and that pre- cipitation, in the form of rain, which roduces flooda may Be of two distinct types. (a) PO intense and wi&y distributed as to produce floodin6 regardless of antecedent
DECEMBPR, 1919. MONTHL1 WEATHER REVIEW.THE DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM FLOODS.By ALFRED J. HENRY, Meteorologist.[Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C.1861SYNoPmx--(l) The records of both American and European rivers ehow an average of 7 to 10 great floods per century. (?) Great floods are primarily due to precipittltion,and that pre- cipitation, in the form of rain, which roduces flooda may Be of two distinct types. (a) PO intense and wi&y distributed as to produce floodin6 regardless of antecedent
1. Introduction The likelihood of floods and other hydrologic events, including storms and droughts, is often expressed as a return period, such as a “100-yr flood.” This information is used to make decisions about whether a project should go forward in a particular location and how to design structures to withstand an event with a certain magnitude as well as to inform the public of risk. Return periods are based on historic data from which the average recurrence interval over an extended
1. Introduction The likelihood of floods and other hydrologic events, including storms and droughts, is often expressed as a return period, such as a “100-yr flood.” This information is used to make decisions about whether a project should go forward in a particular location and how to design structures to withstand an event with a certain magnitude as well as to inform the public of risk. Return periods are based on historic data from which the average recurrence interval over an extended
1. Introduction We have examined tropical cyclone (TC) flooding in the Carolinas (North Carolina and South Carolina) based on analyses of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging records and hydrometeorological analyses of storm properties. The primary objective of this study is to provide improved characterizations of extreme rainfall and flood hazards associated with TCs. The Carolinas have substantial exposure to TC-induced hazards, with coastal areas exposed to surge, and both
1. Introduction We have examined tropical cyclone (TC) flooding in the Carolinas (North Carolina and South Carolina) based on analyses of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging records and hydrometeorological analyses of storm properties. The primary objective of this study is to provide improved characterizations of extreme rainfall and flood hazards associated with TCs. The Carolinas have substantial exposure to TC-induced hazards, with coastal areas exposed to surge, and both
1. Introduction Flooding is one of the most frequent and substantial natural hazards globally ( Hanson et al. 2011 ; Hinkel et al. 2014 ; Jongman et al. 2012 ; Institute for Economics and Peace 2022 ; IPCC 2021 ). Between 2005 and 2015, flooding accounted for almost one-half of all weather-related disasters, affecting 2.3 billion people ( Wahlstrom and Guha-Sapir 2015 ). In the United States, 90% of federally declared disasters involve flooding ( FEMA 2021 ), and over 40 million
1. Introduction Flooding is one of the most frequent and substantial natural hazards globally ( Hanson et al. 2011 ; Hinkel et al. 2014 ; Jongman et al. 2012 ; Institute for Economics and Peace 2022 ; IPCC 2021 ). Between 2005 and 2015, flooding accounted for almost one-half of all weather-related disasters, affecting 2.3 billion people ( Wahlstrom and Guha-Sapir 2015 ). In the United States, 90% of federally declared disasters involve flooding ( FEMA 2021 ), and over 40 million
1. Introduction According to a recent National Weather Service (NWS) assessment examining 10 yr of weather-related fatality data ( http://www.weather.gov/os/hazstats.shtml ), floods—whether originating because of heavy rain, snowmelt, structural failure, or a combination of these factors—are the second deadliest (in comparison with heat) of all weather-related hazards in the United States. Kunkel et al. (1999) found that fatalities in the United States have generally increased during the past
1. Introduction According to a recent National Weather Service (NWS) assessment examining 10 yr of weather-related fatality data ( http://www.weather.gov/os/hazstats.shtml ), floods—whether originating because of heavy rain, snowmelt, structural failure, or a combination of these factors—are the second deadliest (in comparison with heat) of all weather-related hazards in the United States. Kunkel et al. (1999) found that fatalities in the United States have generally increased during the past
