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Victoria Reyes-García, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Maximilien Guèze, and Sandrine Gallois

connection between stargazing and potato planting among Quechua and Aymara farmers. Orlove and his colleagues found that farmers in Peru and Bolivia forecasted the most auspicious time to plant potatoes by looking, around mid-June, at the brightness, apparent size, and position of the Pleiades, one of the brightest star clusters in the Taurus constellation. The dimmer the Pleiades, as determined by their apparent size and brilliance, the less rain in the area to be expected 6 months later. Based on such

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Witold F. Krajewski, Ganesh R. Ghimire, and Felipe Quintero

1. Introduction In this paper we demonstrate, in a systematic way, that persistence is a hard-to-beat streamflow forecasting method ( Palash et al. 2018 ), a fact well known to operational forecasters. We limit our considerations to real-time forecasting in space and time in a river network. River networks aggregate water flow that originates from the transformation of rainfall and/or snowmelt to runoff. Additional recognition of the importance of river networks stems from the fact that many

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Tsing-Chang Chen, Jenq-Dar Tsay, and Eugene S. Takle

sea breeze. (b) Two tracks of surface stations connected by red lines along the Tanshui (1–6) and Keelung (7–12) River valleys. Surface winds measured at 1200 LST 18 Aug 2005 are displayed as an example to illustrate the sea breezes along these two river valleys, labeled with red lines. The elevation scale of the orography is also added to each panel. To properly manage the water supply, to mitigate traffic hazards, and to reduce air pollution in the Taipei basin, day-ahead forecasts for the

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Ariel F. Stein, Glenn D. Rolph, Roland R. Draxler, Barbara Stunder, and Mark Ruminski

1. Introduction Rolph et al. (2009) introduced the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Smoke Forecasting System (SFS), a smoke forecasting tool within the National Weather Service’s (NWS) National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) ( Stockwell et al. 2002 ). The SFS, composed of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) dispersion model ( Draxler and Hess 1997 , 1998 ), the BlueSky framework emission processing ( Larkin et al. 2009 ), and

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David R. Novak, David R. Bright, and Michael J. Brennan

1. Introduction Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of hydrometeorological (hydrologic, weather, and seasonal climate) prediction, and is a consequence of the inherent chaotic nature of the atmosphere, inadequate observations, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) deficiencies ( NRC 2006 ). Thus, the assessment and communication of uncertainty is an inherent part of any forecast process. The assessment of uncertainty in modern operational forecasting has largely relied on the use of

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André April

1. Introduction In Canadian waters, forecasting events such as the onset of ice breakup or a marine area being considered open water or bergy water is important to the shipping trade and the Coast Guard for ship routing and icebreaking plans. Bergy water is an area of freely navigable water in which ice of glacier origin is present. Other ice types may be present, although the total concentration of all other ice is less than 1/10. Open water is an area of freely navigable water in which ice is

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Thomas C. Pagano, Andrew W. Wood, Maria-Helena Ramos, Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Martyn P. Clark, Michael Cranston, Dmitri Kavetski, Thibault Mathevet, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Jan S. Verkade

1. Introduction Recent water-related disasters have captured public attention and led to increased interest in hydrologic forecasting systems. Flooding was responsible for nearly half of all natural catastrophe-related losses in 2013, with floods in Europe, Asia, Canada, the United States, and Australia causing over $20 billion (U.S. dollars) in losses [see www.swissre.com/media/news_releases/nr_20130821_sigma_natcat_estimates_H1_2013.html and Coffman (2013) ]. The human toll in developing

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Cristina Primo, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Ian T. Jolliffe, and David B. Stephenson

1. Introduction Probabilistic forecasts represent the uncertainty in a prediction by a probability distribution for the predictand. This distribution may be derived from historical errors of deterministic forecasts or from ensemble forecasts (see Leith 1974 ; Ehrendorfer 1997 ; Stephenson and Doblas-Reyes 2000 , and references therein). In the latter case, probabilistic forecasts for binary events are often obtained as the relative frequency with which the event occurs in the ensemble. For

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Brian J. Etherton

1. Introduction Incorrect weather forecasts cause problems ranging from mere inconvenience to significant loss of life and property. Computer model forecasts, also referred to as guidance, are a valuable tool used by weather forecasters. Predictions by forecast agencies should improve if the accuracy of computer model guidance is increased. In addition to improving accuracy, producing guidance of similar accuracy but in less time is also beneficial to forecasters, as it would allow users of

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Aaron J. Hill, Gregory R. Herman, and Russ S. Schumacher

and are considered supplementarily in a “significant severe” weather class ( Hales 1988 ; Edwards et al. 2015 ). Collectively, these hazards have inflicted more than 1100 fatalities and $36.4B in damages across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in 2010–18 ( NWS 2018 ). While inherently dangerous and damaging phenomena, accurate severe weather forecasts can increase preparedness and help mitigate inclement weather losses. The hazards associated with severe weather are further encumbered by the

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