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1. Introduction Although the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was more active than most of the hurricane seasons since 1995, overall activity was near the long-term average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed in 2011, 10 became hurricanes and 6 reached major hurricane strength [maximum 1-min 10-m winds greater than 96 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s −1 )—corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Saffir (1973) ; Simpson (1974) ; Schott et al. (2010
1. Introduction Although the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was more active than most of the hurricane seasons since 1995, overall activity was near the long-term average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed in 2011, 10 became hurricanes and 6 reached major hurricane strength [maximum 1-min 10-m winds greater than 96 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s −1 )—corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale; Saffir (1973) ; Simpson (1974) ; Schott et al. (2010
1. Introduction Paleotempestology (the study of storms from geological evidence) offers a glimpse at tropical cyclone activity through the ages ( Liu 2004 ; Donnelly and Webb 2004 ). Coastal wetlands and lakes are episodically subjected to overwash processes during catastrophic hurricane strikes when barrier sand dunes are overtopped by storm surge. The frequency of overwash sand layers in lake and wetland cores provides an estimate of their return period. Records of hurricanes since 1851 are
1. Introduction Paleotempestology (the study of storms from geological evidence) offers a glimpse at tropical cyclone activity through the ages ( Liu 2004 ; Donnelly and Webb 2004 ). Coastal wetlands and lakes are episodically subjected to overwash processes during catastrophic hurricane strikes when barrier sand dunes are overtopped by storm surge. The frequency of overwash sand layers in lake and wetland cores provides an estimate of their return period. Records of hurricanes since 1851 are
1. Introduction When a hurricane exists in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or North Atlantic Ocean, millions of residents of the U.S. coastline pay close attention to all information related to that storm. The possibility of a storm potentially threatening a coastal location has substantial human and economic repercussions. Property valued in the billions of dollars is subject to damage or destruction, and many aspects of daily life, including personal safety, are affected by these seasonal
1. Introduction When a hurricane exists in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or North Atlantic Ocean, millions of residents of the U.S. coastline pay close attention to all information related to that storm. The possibility of a storm potentially threatening a coastal location has substantial human and economic repercussions. Property valued in the billions of dollars is subject to damage or destruction, and many aspects of daily life, including personal safety, are affected by these seasonal
. Given the aforementioned resistance of hurricane intensity forecasts to improvements in the larger-scale environment, the intrinsic variability provides a starting point for understanding how the environment adds, or removes, predictive capacity. Ultimately, we wish to know the limit of tropical cyclone structure and intensity predictability, which may be approached by forecasts as a result of improvements to models, observations, and data assimilation systems. Again, the present study provides a
. Given the aforementioned resistance of hurricane intensity forecasts to improvements in the larger-scale environment, the intrinsic variability provides a starting point for understanding how the environment adds, or removes, predictive capacity. Ultimately, we wish to know the limit of tropical cyclone structure and intensity predictability, which may be approached by forecasts as a result of improvements to models, observations, and data assimilation systems. Again, the present study provides a
1. Introduction Accurate forecasting of hurricane intensity remains an open and challenging problem. While track forecasts have improved steadily over the past years (e.g., McAdie and Lawrence 2000 ), intensity forecasts have not. One of the main reasons for this deficiency originates from the fact that the internal asymmetric dynamical processes, and their connection to structural and intensity changes, are not fully understood ( Wang and Wu 2004 ). Although the hurricane is thought to be
1. Introduction Accurate forecasting of hurricane intensity remains an open and challenging problem. While track forecasts have improved steadily over the past years (e.g., McAdie and Lawrence 2000 ), intensity forecasts have not. One of the main reasons for this deficiency originates from the fact that the internal asymmetric dynamical processes, and their connection to structural and intensity changes, are not fully understood ( Wang and Wu 2004 ). Although the hurricane is thought to be
1. Introduction Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019 , hereafter RE ) presented a new derivation of surface potential intensity (PI). They based this on consideration of an infinitely narrow Carnot cycle in the vicinity of maximum wind speed. Cyclonic storms, especially powerful hurricanes, represent a serious threat to human lives in many regions of the world but our ability to understand and anticipate these storms remains incomplete. Finding theoretical constraints on maximum hurricane
1. Introduction Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019 , hereafter RE ) presented a new derivation of surface potential intensity (PI). They based this on consideration of an infinitely narrow Carnot cycle in the vicinity of maximum wind speed. Cyclonic storms, especially powerful hurricanes, represent a serious threat to human lives in many regions of the world but our ability to understand and anticipate these storms remains incomplete. Finding theoretical constraints on maximum hurricane
1. Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved substantially over the past few decades. The 48-h track errors in the North Atlantic today have been reduced by 50% over the last 15 years ( Cangialosi and Franklin 2016 ). While these improvements in the forecast tracks generally hold, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) presents an unusual case in which current numerical weather prediction models struggled with the track forecast. The initial poor track forecast of Joaquin resulted in
1. Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved substantially over the past few decades. The 48-h track errors in the North Atlantic today have been reduced by 50% over the last 15 years ( Cangialosi and Franklin 2016 ). While these improvements in the forecast tracks generally hold, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) presents an unusual case in which current numerical weather prediction models struggled with the track forecast. The initial poor track forecast of Joaquin resulted in
1. Introduction The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season continued the trend of generally quieter than average seasons since 1995 ( Fig. 1 ; Table 1 ) ( Wang and Lee 2009 ). A total of seven tropical storms developed, of which three became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes [maximum 1-min winds of greater than 96 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s −1 ), corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale ( Saffir 1973 ; Simpson 1974 ; Schott 2012 )]. In
1. Introduction The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season continued the trend of generally quieter than average seasons since 1995 ( Fig. 1 ; Table 1 ) ( Wang and Lee 2009 ). A total of seven tropical storms developed, of which three became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes [maximum 1-min winds of greater than 96 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s −1 ), corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale ( Saffir 1973 ; Simpson 1974 ; Schott 2012 )]. In
The 2005 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season is considered by many to be the most active 1 Atlantic hurricane season on record, with a total of 28 named storms 2 and 15 hurricanes, including 7 major hurricanes 3 occurring ( Beven et al. 2008 ). While 2005 currently holds the record for most named storms and hurricanes in a single season ( Landsea and Franklin 2013 ), the record for most accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in a single season occurred more than 70 years earlier
The 2005 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season is considered by many to be the most active 1 Atlantic hurricane season on record, with a total of 28 named storms 2 and 15 hurricanes, including 7 major hurricanes 3 occurring ( Beven et al. 2008 ). While 2005 currently holds the record for most named storms and hurricanes in a single season ( Landsea and Franklin 2013 ), the record for most accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in a single season occurred more than 70 years earlier
1. Overview Activity during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was near average, with 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Six of the named storms became hurricanes, with two becoming major hurricanes, corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale ( Saffir 1973 ; Simpson 1974 ). For the 40-yr period 1967–2006, the Atlantic basin averages for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 11, 6, and 2, respectively. Even
1. Overview Activity during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was near average, with 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Six of the named storms became hurricanes, with two becoming major hurricanes, corresponding to category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale ( Saffir 1973 ; Simpson 1974 ). For the 40-yr period 1967–2006, the Atlantic basin averages for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 11, 6, and 2, respectively. Even
