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1. Introduction The Mediterranean region is a densely populated area under climatic and environmental stresses, particularly concerning the availability of water resources, and is one of the most responsive regions to climate change (e.g., Hulme et al. 1999 ; Giorgi 2006 ). While the water availability is of great importance, severe weather events causing heavy rainfall and floods also add to the socioeconomic distress. The Mediterranean Experiment (MedEx) database presents several cases of
1. Introduction The Mediterranean region is a densely populated area under climatic and environmental stresses, particularly concerning the availability of water resources, and is one of the most responsive regions to climate change (e.g., Hulme et al. 1999 ; Giorgi 2006 ). While the water availability is of great importance, severe weather events causing heavy rainfall and floods also add to the socioeconomic distress. The Mediterranean Experiment (MedEx) database presents several cases of
1. Introduction The study region belongs to the Mediterranean part of France, which is historically prone to extreme precipitations and flash floods ( Antoine et al. 2001 ). Should the climate change, this region could be one of the most affected in terms of extremes ( Barnet et al. 2006 ; Giorgi 2006 ). In the recent past, a number of heavy rainfall events occurred: 144 events with daily precipitation amounts greater than 190 mm during the period 1958–1994 were inventoried by Jacq (1994
1. Introduction The study region belongs to the Mediterranean part of France, which is historically prone to extreme precipitations and flash floods ( Antoine et al. 2001 ). Should the climate change, this region could be one of the most affected in terms of extremes ( Barnet et al. 2006 ; Giorgi 2006 ). In the recent past, a number of heavy rainfall events occurred: 144 events with daily precipitation amounts greater than 190 mm during the period 1958–1994 were inventoried by Jacq (1994
1. Introduction Heavy rainfall episodes are a climatic feature of the western Mediterranean ( Font 1983 ; Romero et al. 1999 ; see Fig. 1 for all locations referred to in the text). Important highly populated areas are affected regularly by floods that produce human fatalities, substantial property losses, and impacts on the communication systems and landscape. Severe weather events typically occur in the region at the end of the summer (e.g., Homar et al. 2003a ) and during autumn (e
1. Introduction Heavy rainfall episodes are a climatic feature of the western Mediterranean ( Font 1983 ; Romero et al. 1999 ; see Fig. 1 for all locations referred to in the text). Important highly populated areas are affected regularly by floods that produce human fatalities, substantial property losses, and impacts on the communication systems and landscape. Severe weather events typically occur in the region at the end of the summer (e.g., Homar et al. 2003a ) and during autumn (e
warming obtained by PRUDENCE by downscaling the ECHAM4/Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) projections are more consistent with our projections than with any other results based on the other GCMs that they used. All the PRUDENCE simulations indicate a decrease in projected summer precipitation over southern Europe, which is consistent with our projections. However, Déqué et al.’s (2007) study showed that during summer over the Mediterranean region the uncertainty in precipitation projections associated
warming obtained by PRUDENCE by downscaling the ECHAM4/Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) projections are more consistent with our projections than with any other results based on the other GCMs that they used. All the PRUDENCE simulations indicate a decrease in projected summer precipitation over southern Europe, which is consistent with our projections. However, Déqué et al.’s (2007) study showed that during summer over the Mediterranean region the uncertainty in precipitation projections associated
. Study area and data description The island of Crete is located in the southeastern part of the Mediterranean region ( Fig. 4 ) and is well known to be one of the most drought-prone areas of Greece. Political interests and disputes among the four prefectures and the more than 100 municipalities of the island, as well as poor water management, have created a public belief that water resources are inadequate and that some kind of drought is imminent ( Manios and Tsanis 2006 ). The island has a surface
. Study area and data description The island of Crete is located in the southeastern part of the Mediterranean region ( Fig. 4 ) and is well known to be one of the most drought-prone areas of Greece. Political interests and disputes among the four prefectures and the more than 100 municipalities of the island, as well as poor water management, have created a public belief that water resources are inadequate and that some kind of drought is imminent ( Manios and Tsanis 2006 ). The island has a surface
1. Introduction As a significant component of natural climatic variability, teleconnections play an important role in determining changes of the regional climate. In the Mediterranean region, which lies in the transitional zone between northern Africa and southern Europe, the most prominent influence of an independent large-scale circulation mode is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Rodo et al. 1997 ; Dunkeloh and Jacobeit 2003 ; Martin et al. 2004 ; Türkes and Erlat 2003 ). More
1. Introduction As a significant component of natural climatic variability, teleconnections play an important role in determining changes of the regional climate. In the Mediterranean region, which lies in the transitional zone between northern Africa and southern Europe, the most prominent influence of an independent large-scale circulation mode is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Rodo et al. 1997 ; Dunkeloh and Jacobeit 2003 ; Martin et al. 2004 ; Türkes and Erlat 2003 ). More
1. Introduction Located between the midlatitude storm rainband and the Sahara Desert, the Mediterranean region experiences a profound seasonal cycle, with wet-cold winters and dry-warm summers ( Peixoto et al. 1982 ). The hydrological cycle is especially sensitive to the timing and the location of the winter storms as they move into the region. Interannual climate variability is closely related to the variability in the Atlantic sector such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Hurrell 1995
1. Introduction Located between the midlatitude storm rainband and the Sahara Desert, the Mediterranean region experiences a profound seasonal cycle, with wet-cold winters and dry-warm summers ( Peixoto et al. 1982 ). The hydrological cycle is especially sensitive to the timing and the location of the winter storms as they move into the region. Interannual climate variability is closely related to the variability in the Atlantic sector such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Hurrell 1995
1. Introduction The Mediterranean region has given name to the Mediterranean type of climate, which is loosely defined as a subtropical to midlatitude climate with cool, damp winters; hot, dry summers; and overall semiarid conditions. In the Mediterranean region, like other Mediterranean climate zones such as California, southwest Australia, and parts of Southern Africa, water is a perennial concern. While ecosystems have evolved to deal with the semiarid climate and its seasonal cycle, people
1. Introduction The Mediterranean region has given name to the Mediterranean type of climate, which is loosely defined as a subtropical to midlatitude climate with cool, damp winters; hot, dry summers; and overall semiarid conditions. In the Mediterranean region, like other Mediterranean climate zones such as California, southwest Australia, and parts of Southern Africa, water is a perennial concern. While ecosystems have evolved to deal with the semiarid climate and its seasonal cycle, people
1. Introduction Heavy precipitation is a serious weather hazard in the western Mediterranean region ( Fig. 1 ), as discussed by, among others, GarcÃa-Dana et al. (1982) , Ramis et al. (1986) , Llasat (1987) , and Ramis et al. (1994 ). It is mostly the result of deep, moist convection, which can lead to significant amounts of precipitation in a short time. Extraordinary observations of such heavy precipitation include a case of more than 200 mm of rainfall in 2 h in Ibiza (in
1. Introduction Heavy precipitation is a serious weather hazard in the western Mediterranean region ( Fig. 1 ), as discussed by, among others, GarcÃa-Dana et al. (1982) , Ramis et al. (1986) , Llasat (1987) , and Ramis et al. (1994 ). It is mostly the result of deep, moist convection, which can lead to significant amounts of precipitation in a short time. Extraordinary observations of such heavy precipitation include a case of more than 200 mm of rainfall in 2 h in Ibiza (in
precipitation anomalies. In a solely observational study, we quantify the mechanisms using a well-established ( Seager et al. 2010b ) decomposition of the moisture budget in an atmospheric reanalysis. This will allow us to assess how precipitation variations across the North Atlantic, Europe, and Mediterranean region are related to changes in circulation and humidity, changes in mean flow moisture convergence and advection and changes in storm tracks. We will also examine for two winters with NAO extremes
precipitation anomalies. In a solely observational study, we quantify the mechanisms using a well-established ( Seager et al. 2010b ) decomposition of the moisture budget in an atmospheric reanalysis. This will allow us to assess how precipitation variations across the North Atlantic, Europe, and Mediterranean region are related to changes in circulation and humidity, changes in mean flow moisture convergence and advection and changes in storm tracks. We will also examine for two winters with NAO extremes
