Search Results
-cloud-base height (hereinafter termed LCBH) observations, coupled with the cloud-base restrictions on flying, ensure that forecasting cloud properties in support of aviation remains a challenge. This study uses balloon-launched radiosonde data and surface observations from the three Australian East Antarctic coastal stations of Mawson, Davis, and Casey, along with near-coincident numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, in order to determine the accuracy of the NWP relative humidity RH profile by comparing
-cloud-base height (hereinafter termed LCBH) observations, coupled with the cloud-base restrictions on flying, ensure that forecasting cloud properties in support of aviation remains a challenge. This study uses balloon-launched radiosonde data and surface observations from the three Australian East Antarctic coastal stations of Mawson, Davis, and Casey, along with near-coincident numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, in order to determine the accuracy of the NWP relative humidity RH profile by comparing
1. Introduction Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is an important goal of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the past decades, precipitation forecasts by NWP models have been remarkably improved owing to the increased number of atmospheric observations, improved NWP models, and advanced data assimilation (DA) methods. Precipitation nowcasting based on spatiotemporal extrapolation (hereafter, simply “extrapolation”) is also known to be a computationally feasible QPF method, which
1. Introduction Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is an important goal of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the past decades, precipitation forecasts by NWP models have been remarkably improved owing to the increased number of atmospheric observations, improved NWP models, and advanced data assimilation (DA) methods. Precipitation nowcasting based on spatiotemporal extrapolation (hereafter, simply “extrapolation”) is also known to be a computationally feasible QPF method, which
success of these probabilistic forecast models, some questions remain about the usefulness of logistic models. Most importantly, neither study attempted to determine the potential impacts of random measurement error on the quality of the forecasts. In this paper, we assess the ability of logistic models to provide a valuable and accurate diagnosis/prediction of persistent contrail occurrence via numerical weather models under typical random errors expected in meteorological measurements. The next
success of these probabilistic forecast models, some questions remain about the usefulness of logistic models. Most importantly, neither study attempted to determine the potential impacts of random measurement error on the quality of the forecasts. In this paper, we assess the ability of logistic models to provide a valuable and accurate diagnosis/prediction of persistent contrail occurrence via numerical weather models under typical random errors expected in meteorological measurements. The next
-term forecasts at larger geographical scales that are required by energy grid managers to manage energy demand up to several days in advance. These forecasts require the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of mesoscale size or greater, and therefore their development and implementation is usually carried about by national weather centers. Solar irradiance is a key surface flux for an NWP model. Correct computation of downward shortwave radiation is necessary for overall forecast accuracy and
-term forecasts at larger geographical scales that are required by energy grid managers to manage energy demand up to several days in advance. These forecasts require the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of mesoscale size or greater, and therefore their development and implementation is usually carried about by national weather centers. Solar irradiance is a key surface flux for an NWP model. Correct computation of downward shortwave radiation is necessary for overall forecast accuracy and
, 811 – 829 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00052.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00052.1 Rodwell , M. J. , D. S. Richardson , T. D. Hewson , and T. Haiden , 2010 : A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 136 , 1344 – 1363 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.656 . 10.1002/qj.656 Schirmer , M. , and B. Jamieson , 2015 : Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain
, 811 – 829 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00052.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00052.1 Rodwell , M. J. , D. S. Richardson , T. D. Hewson , and T. Haiden , 2010 : A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 136 , 1344 – 1363 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.656 . 10.1002/qj.656 Schirmer , M. , and B. Jamieson , 2015 : Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain
1 MAY 1986JOHN 0. ROADS87 1Forecasts of Time Averages with a Numerical Weather Prediction ModelJOHN 0. ROADSScripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093(Manuscript received 1 July 1985, in final form 2 December 1985) ABSTRACTForecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction modelare documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. The error growth of this model is comparedto the error growth in a simple
1 MAY 1986JOHN 0. ROADS87 1Forecasts of Time Averages with a Numerical Weather Prediction ModelJOHN 0. ROADSScripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093(Manuscript received 1 July 1985, in final form 2 December 1985) ABSTRACTForecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction modelare documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. The error growth of this model is comparedto the error growth in a simple
Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program (available online at http://www.globe.gov ) and geosynchronous satellite imagery along with numerical weather analyses and forecasts to create forecast models for the prediction of persistent contrail formation. These models allow predictions of widespread contrail occurrences on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. More developed versions of the forecast models could eventually be used in aviation for the
Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program (available online at http://www.globe.gov ) and geosynchronous satellite imagery along with numerical weather analyses and forecasts to create forecast models for the prediction of persistent contrail formation. These models allow predictions of widespread contrail occurrences on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. More developed versions of the forecast models could eventually be used in aviation for the
( Dettinger et al. 2011 ; Guan et al. 2010 ). Given their critical role in the global water cycle and extreme precipitation, it is important to understand how well ARs are represented and predicted in current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by Ralph et al. (2010) showed that some of the largest QPF forecast errors were associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers. Forecasters rely heavily on the model guidance of AR activity for
( Dettinger et al. 2011 ; Guan et al. 2010 ). Given their critical role in the global water cycle and extreme precipitation, it is important to understand how well ARs are represented and predicted in current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by Ralph et al. (2010) showed that some of the largest QPF forecast errors were associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers. Forecasters rely heavily on the model guidance of AR activity for
. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 21.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/71107.pdf ] . Ghirardelli, J. E. , 2005 : An overview of the redeveloped Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for short-range forecasting. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95038.pdf
. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 21.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/71107.pdf ] . Ghirardelli, J. E. , 2005 : An overview of the redeveloped Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for short-range forecasting. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13B.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/95038.pdf
, with the major objective of developing operational medium-range weather forecasting capabilities and agrometeorological advisory services (AAS) for the farming community for each of the 127 agroclimatic zones of the country. The weather forecasts up to 3 days in advance began to be produced and distributed to various user agencies by running a global numerical weather prediction model, initially the R-40 model from the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere (COLA) and later the T-80 model from the
, with the major objective of developing operational medium-range weather forecasting capabilities and agrometeorological advisory services (AAS) for the farming community for each of the 127 agroclimatic zones of the country. The weather forecasts up to 3 days in advance began to be produced and distributed to various user agencies by running a global numerical weather prediction model, initially the R-40 model from the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere (COLA) and later the T-80 model from the
