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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

emission scenarios as input into the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Figure 1. Location map of the United States showing the 14 selected basins. Red triangle denotes location of stream gauge for model calibration (basins not to scale; see Table 1 for relative scales). Table 1. Selected basins listed by drainage area. 2. Growing season length definition Numerous studies quantifying GSL have been completed in the United States. The studies examine GSL using a variety of methods such as

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

assess the sensitivity and potential effects of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed model. Because the scope of this study was limited to climate change (as opposed to weather change), the change factor method was used to capture how changes in climate might evolve through the twenty-first century. For each basin, simulated precipitation and temperature from five GCMs, using one baseline (twentieth

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L. E. Hay, M. P. Clark, M. Pagowski, G. H. Leavesley, and W. J. Gutowski Jr.

) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and compared with runoff produced in PRMS using standard climate observations. A multiobjective, stepwise automated technique was used to calibrate PRMS to each of the input datasets used in the comparison. The Yampa River basin in Colorado (see Fig. 1 ) was chosen as the study area. The Yampa River basin is a mountainous basin where the runoff is strongly dependent on snowmelt. The basin is 1430 km 2 in area and ranges in elevation from 2000 to 3800 m. The

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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

information is critical for management of water supplies” ( Hughes et al. 2007 , p. 1). Because the application of the watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Leavesley et al. 1983 ) to the Flint River basin has already been documented in Viger et al. ( Viger et al. 2010 ), this article will provide relatively brief descriptions of the setup, calibration, and results of the hydrologic model under historical land-cover and climate conditions. The remainder of the article is

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

1. Introduction In a recent study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, the hydrologic effects of different emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated for 14 basins in different hydroclimatic regions across the United States (see Hay et al. 2011 ). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (see Leavesley et al. 1983 ), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model, was used to evaluate these hydrologic effects. For each of the 14 basins, simulated

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Michael G. Bosilovich and Wen-yih Sun

Beljaars et al. (1996) ( Seth and Giorgi 1997 ). In this paper, Purdue Regional Model (PRM) numerical simulations of the 1993 Midwestern floods are presented and the model’s sensitivity to land surface and planetary boundary layer processes are examined. The following section outlines the numerical simulations and experimentation. Section 3 presents the model representation of the atmospheric circulation and its comparison to observations. Finally, the interaction between the model surface, boundary

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

the effects of potential climate change on the water resources of the East River basin ( Leavesley et al. 1992 ; Hay et al. 1993 ; McCabe and Hay 1995 ). The calibrated Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model from these studies was used as the starting point in this investigation. 1.2.2. The Yampa River At Steamboat Springs (USGS gauging station 09239500) is a tributary to the Green River, which is also an important tributary of the Colorado River. The 1439-km 2 basin ranges in

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

United States” was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 ( Markstrom et al. 2010 ). The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate-change studies across the nation. Fourteen river basins for which Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Markstrom et al. 2010 ) models previously had been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites ( Figure 1 ; Table 1 ). PRMS is a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate

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Lauren E. Hay, Jacob LaFontaine, and Steven L. Markstrom

data (GSD) derived from station measurements ( Maurer et al. 2002 ) and 2) statistically downscaled GCM output [an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM); Stoner et al. 2012 ]. The GSD and ARRM datasets were used to simulate streamflow and components of flow (surface, subsurface, and groundwater) using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Daily simulations of surface, subsurface and groundwater flow from PRMS were in turn used with the GSD and ARRM climate forcings to simulate

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Pablo A. Mendoza, Martyn P. Clark, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Michael Barlage, Ethan D. Gutmann, Roy M. Rasmussen, Balaji Rajagopalan, Levi D. Brekke, and Jeffrey R. Arnold

change impacts on hydrology. b. Hydrologic–land surface models We choose four hydrologic–land surface models: the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Leavesley et al. 1983 ; Leavesley and Stannard 1995 ), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC; Wood et al. 1992 ; Liang et al. 1994 , 1996 ), the Noah land surface model (Noah LSM; Ek 2003 ; Mitchell et al. 2004 ), and the Noah LSM with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP; Niu et al. 2011 ; Yang

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