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precipitation events (the >10 mm 12 h −1 results were shown here). These system improvements suggest that with the use of this algorithm, the National Blend probabilistic precipitation forecasts will be of sufficient skill and reliability that they can and should be disseminated more widely. Currently, National Blend guidance does not include fully probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast guidance, only the probability of nonzero precipitation (POP). The authors of this article intend to work with
precipitation events (the >10 mm 12 h −1 results were shown here). These system improvements suggest that with the use of this algorithm, the National Blend probabilistic precipitation forecasts will be of sufficient skill and reliability that they can and should be disseminated more widely. Currently, National Blend guidance does not include fully probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast guidance, only the probability of nonzero precipitation (POP). The authors of this article intend to work with
et al. 2016 ; Yang et al. 2016 ). Ensemble members were further classified based on specific typhoon features to improve the QPF performance of typhoons ( Hong et al. 2015 ). The probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) has been used as an objective parameter to assess and understand the overall performance of ensemble systems and also to develop postprocess bias corrections. For example, Ruiz et al. (2009) calculated PQPF over South America using several ensemble forecast
et al. 2016 ; Yang et al. 2016 ). Ensemble members were further classified based on specific typhoon features to improve the QPF performance of typhoons ( Hong et al. 2015 ). The probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) has been used as an objective parameter to assess and understand the overall performance of ensemble systems and also to develop postprocess bias corrections. For example, Ruiz et al. (2009) calculated PQPF over South America using several ensemble forecast
EMOS model for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting . Environmetrics , 27 , 280 – 292 , https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2391 . 10.1002/env.2391 Baran , S. , and Á. Baran , 2021 : Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation . Idojaras , 125 , 609 – 624 , https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2021.4.4 . Baran , S. , and S. Lerch , 2018 : Combining predictive distributions for statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts . Int. J. Forecast
EMOS model for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting . Environmetrics , 27 , 280 – 292 , https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2391 . 10.1002/env.2391 Baran , S. , and Á. Baran , 2021 : Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation . Idojaras , 125 , 609 – 624 , https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2021.4.4 . Baran , S. , and S. Lerch , 2018 : Combining predictive distributions for statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts . Int. J. Forecast
flash flood monitoring, detection, and decision making. However, the operational FLASH products neither provide probabilistic information to communicate the uncertainty associated with the forecast, nor do they provide significantly longer flash flood forecast lead time. Therefore, to extend the hydrometeorological forecast lead time beyond the watershed response time, it is prudent to explore the use of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from NWP models as a forcing to the
flash flood monitoring, detection, and decision making. However, the operational FLASH products neither provide probabilistic information to communicate the uncertainty associated with the forecast, nor do they provide significantly longer flash flood forecast lead time. Therefore, to extend the hydrometeorological forecast lead time beyond the watershed response time, it is prudent to explore the use of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from NWP models as a forcing to the
wet and ER days for all the summer monsoon months. The GEFSv12 has relatively outperformed the GEFS-SubX for both categorical rainfall events during all the months and it is notably more for ER days. The area under the curve (AUC) is more than 0.6 in both models. Moreover, the AUC value of GEFSv12 is higher than the GEFS-SubX for both wet and ER days during all the months ( Fig. 3 ). Fig . 2. The reliability diagram for Taiwan probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) from 2000
wet and ER days for all the summer monsoon months. The GEFSv12 has relatively outperformed the GEFS-SubX for both categorical rainfall events during all the months and it is notably more for ER days. The area under the curve (AUC) is more than 0.6 in both models. Moreover, the AUC value of GEFSv12 is higher than the GEFS-SubX for both wet and ER days during all the months ( Fig. 3 ). Fig . 2. The reliability diagram for Taiwan probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) from 2000
: Improvements and application to a French large river basin . Atmos. Res. , 169 , 147 – 159 , doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015 . 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015 Bontron , G. , 2004 : Prévision quantitative des précipitations: Adaptation probabiliste par recherche d’analogues. Utilisation des réanalyses NCEP/NCAR et application aux précipitations du sud-est de la France (Quantitative precipitation forecasts: Probabilistic adaptation by analogues sorting. Use of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and application
: Improvements and application to a French large river basin . Atmos. Res. , 169 , 147 – 159 , doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015 . 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015 Bontron , G. , 2004 : Prévision quantitative des précipitations: Adaptation probabiliste par recherche d’analogues. Utilisation des réanalyses NCEP/NCAR et application aux précipitations du sud-est de la France (Quantitative precipitation forecasts: Probabilistic adaptation by analogues sorting. Use of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and application
Prediction , San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10.1 , http://ams.confex.com/ams/SLS_WAF_NWP/techprogram/paper_47241.htm . Gagne , D. J. , II , A. McGovern , and M. Xue , 2014 : Machine learning enhancement of storm-scale ensemble probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts . Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 1024 – 1043 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00108.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00108.1 Gagne , D. J. , II , S. E. Haupt , D. W. Nychka , and G. Thompson , 2019 : Interpretable deep
Prediction , San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10.1 , http://ams.confex.com/ams/SLS_WAF_NWP/techprogram/paper_47241.htm . Gagne , D. J. , II , A. McGovern , and M. Xue , 2014 : Machine learning enhancement of storm-scale ensemble probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts . Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 1024 – 1043 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00108.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00108.1 Gagne , D. J. , II , S. E. Haupt , D. W. Nychka , and G. Thompson , 2019 : Interpretable deep
1. Introduction Recent increases in computational capabilities have allowed for the development of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling systems with horizontal grid spacings ≤ 4 km, such that cumulus parameterizations can be omitted ( Kain et al. 2008 ). Commonly referred to as “convection permitting” ensembles (CPEs), these modeling systems offer significant promise for improving quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) over the western United
1. Introduction Recent increases in computational capabilities have allowed for the development of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling systems with horizontal grid spacings ≤ 4 km, such that cumulus parameterizations can be omitted ( Kain et al. 2008 ). Commonly referred to as “convection permitting” ensembles (CPEs), these modeling systems offer significant promise for improving quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) over the western United
more realistic topography and atmospheric circulations ( Davolio et al. 2008 ; Roberts et al. 2009 ; Yan and Gallus 2016 ; Yu et al. 2016 ). As computational power and observational data quality and quantity improve, the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) by NWP has substantially increased in their capability. Bartholmes and Todini (2005) conducted research employing the combinations of precipitation forecasts by mesoscale atmospheric models of different resolutions with a
more realistic topography and atmospheric circulations ( Davolio et al. 2008 ; Roberts et al. 2009 ; Yan and Gallus 2016 ; Yu et al. 2016 ). As computational power and observational data quality and quantity improve, the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) by NWP has substantially increased in their capability. Bartholmes and Todini (2005) conducted research employing the combinations of precipitation forecasts by mesoscale atmospheric models of different resolutions with a
postprocessing using quantile mapping and rank-weighted best-member dressing . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 146 , 4079 – 4098 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0147.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0147.1 Hamill , T. M. , and J. S. Whitaker , 2006 : Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 134 , 3209 – 3229 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3237.1 . 10.1175/MWR3237.1 Klein , W. H. , B. M. Lewis , and I. Enger , 1959 : Objective prediction
postprocessing using quantile mapping and rank-weighted best-member dressing . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 146 , 4079 – 4098 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0147.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0147.1 Hamill , T. M. , and J. S. Whitaker , 2006 : Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 134 , 3209 – 3229 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3237.1 . 10.1175/MWR3237.1 Klein , W. H. , B. M. Lewis , and I. Enger , 1959 : Objective prediction
