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risk management is informed by assessments provided by a group of experts, where the final assessment is one that represents the group judgment. Individual expert judgments can be aggregated mathematically or behaviorally to reach this group judgment. Previously, expert judgments have been mathematically aggregated using the linear opinion pool, where experts have been kept separate during the elicitation ( Clemen and Winkler 1999 ; Griffiths et al. 2009 ; Brito et al. 2010 ). There are different
risk management is informed by assessments provided by a group of experts, where the final assessment is one that represents the group judgment. Individual expert judgments can be aggregated mathematically or behaviorally to reach this group judgment. Previously, expert judgments have been mathematically aggregated using the linear opinion pool, where experts have been kept separate during the elicitation ( Clemen and Winkler 1999 ; Griffiths et al. 2009 ; Brito et al. 2010 ). There are different
1. Introduction The risks posed by many natural hazards are dynamic in that the threat and information available about it evolve. When a hurricane threatens a coastline, for example, its position and intensity changes, and forecast and preparedness information is refined as the storm approaches. People’s assessments of and responses to natural hazard risks are also dynamic, as individuals process information and interact with each other to communicate about, interpret, and respond to the
1. Introduction The risks posed by many natural hazards are dynamic in that the threat and information available about it evolve. When a hurricane threatens a coastline, for example, its position and intensity changes, and forecast and preparedness information is refined as the storm approaches. People’s assessments of and responses to natural hazard risks are also dynamic, as individuals process information and interact with each other to communicate about, interpret, and respond to the
assessment in the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard for Lightning Protection, Part II (IEC 62305-2:2010; referred to herein as IEC62305) was used ( International Electrotechnical Commission 2010 ). The risk assessment framework of IEC62305 is intended to produce an annual value of lightning risk for structures. This risk value helps to determine whether or not protection measures are required in order to reduce losses due to lightning. For this research, the risk assessment was adapted
assessment in the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard for Lightning Protection, Part II (IEC 62305-2:2010; referred to herein as IEC62305) was used ( International Electrotechnical Commission 2010 ). The risk assessment framework of IEC62305 is intended to produce an annual value of lightning risk for structures. This risk value helps to determine whether or not protection measures are required in order to reduce losses due to lightning. For this research, the risk assessment was adapted
Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM). The comparisons of meteorological parameters (e.g., measures of buoyancy and vertical shear) to past severe weather occurrences provide a background for anticipating severe storm risk based on initial environmental information (e.g., Rasmussen and Blanchard 1998 ; Thompson et al. 2003 , 2007 ; Craven and Brooks 2004 ). These studies provide background for forecasters to anticipate future severe weather occurrences based on past ones using meteorological parameter
Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM). The comparisons of meteorological parameters (e.g., measures of buoyancy and vertical shear) to past severe weather occurrences provide a background for anticipating severe storm risk based on initial environmental information (e.g., Rasmussen and Blanchard 1998 ; Thompson et al. 2003 , 2007 ; Craven and Brooks 2004 ). These studies provide background for forecasters to anticipate future severe weather occurrences based on past ones using meteorological parameter
system that allows direct comparison between the models. We find that bias in the track model is more than compensated for on most regional-scale coast segments by the reduction of sampling error compared to the local model. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that the use of basinwide statistical track models has been rigorously justified for use in TC landfall risk assessment. 2. Local model The local model makes predictions of future TC landfall rates on a segment of coastline using only
system that allows direct comparison between the models. We find that bias in the track model is more than compensated for on most regional-scale coast segments by the reduction of sampling error compared to the local model. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that the use of basinwide statistical track models has been rigorously justified for use in TC landfall risk assessment. 2. Local model The local model makes predictions of future TC landfall rates on a segment of coastline using only
1. Introduction According to the regional disaster assessment framework, flash flood risk refers to the potential damage caused by flood disaster occurrences in mountainous, hilly, and river valley areas due to heavy precipitation ( Shi 2016 ; Zhang et al. 2006 ); obviously, flash flood floods represent the major form of flood disasters. Changes in regional thermodynamic processes caused by climate warming have resulted in an increase in atmospheric water vapor content, and the annual
1. Introduction According to the regional disaster assessment framework, flash flood risk refers to the potential damage caused by flood disaster occurrences in mountainous, hilly, and river valley areas due to heavy precipitation ( Shi 2016 ; Zhang et al. 2006 ); obviously, flash flood floods represent the major form of flood disasters. Changes in regional thermodynamic processes caused by climate warming have resulted in an increase in atmospheric water vapor content, and the annual
1987 ), recommending a “shift from an effect- towards a cause-oriented approach to environmental policy.” Climate change risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVA) are one way to provide policy makers with the necessary information. They identify the main risk drivers and inform climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) interventions and decision-making. Concepts and definitions utilized in CRVA are constantly evolving to better meet the challenges of capturing and
1987 ), recommending a “shift from an effect- towards a cause-oriented approach to environmental policy.” Climate change risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVA) are one way to provide policy makers with the necessary information. They identify the main risk drivers and inform climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) interventions and decision-making. Concepts and definitions utilized in CRVA are constantly evolving to better meet the challenges of capturing and
Accurate assessment of flood risk is critical to protecting lives and property worldwide. The design and safe operation of dams, levees, culverts, bridges, storm drainage infrastructure, and many nuclear facilities are informed by estimates of an “upper bound” of possible precipitation. In particular, dams and nuclear facilities in populated areas are often referred to as “critical” or “high hazard” due to the risk to life and property a failure presents. These structures must be built to
Accurate assessment of flood risk is critical to protecting lives and property worldwide. The design and safe operation of dams, levees, culverts, bridges, storm drainage infrastructure, and many nuclear facilities are informed by estimates of an “upper bound” of possible precipitation. In particular, dams and nuclear facilities in populated areas are often referred to as “critical” or “high hazard” due to the risk to life and property a failure presents. These structures must be built to
–237 . Emanuel , K. , C. DesAutels , C. Holloway , and R. Korty , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 . Emanuel , K. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 . Fankhauser , S. , 1995 : Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse . Earthscan Publications, 180 pp . Hallegatte , S. , 2006 : A
–237 . Emanuel , K. , C. DesAutels , C. Holloway , and R. Korty , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 . Emanuel , K. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 . Fankhauser , S. , 1995 : Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse . Earthscan Publications, 180 pp . Hallegatte , S. , 2006 : A
1. Introduction Understanding the potential consequences of climate change to society is extremely challenging because climate impacts will depend on a multitude of contributing factors that interact in complicated ways and that are characterized by varying degrees of uncertainty ( Moss 2011 ). For example, the risk assessment process must synthesize information from numerous disciplines that span the physical sciences (e.g., how much and how fast climate changes), natural sciences (e.g., how
1. Introduction Understanding the potential consequences of climate change to society is extremely challenging because climate impacts will depend on a multitude of contributing factors that interact in complicated ways and that are characterized by varying degrees of uncertainty ( Moss 2011 ). For example, the risk assessment process must synthesize information from numerous disciplines that span the physical sciences (e.g., how much and how fast climate changes), natural sciences (e.g., how
