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Chungu Lu
,
Huiling Yuan
,
Barry E. Schwartz
, and
Stanley G. Benjamin

report on how a time-lagged ensemble forecast system can be constructed using forecasts from the RUC, and evaluate how much skill this type of ensemble forecast can provide over each individual deterministic forecast for the very short range weather prediction of 1–3 h. This type of short-range ensemble forecast system could be used in short-range decision support systems, such as those for aviation weather forecast applications including air traffic management, in which case frequent updates to a

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Baoxiang Pan
,
Kuolin Hsu
,
Amir AghaKouchak
,
Soroosh Sorooshian
, and
Wayne Higgins

, Engineering, and Medicine 2016 ). For regions with distinct dynamics and sources of predictability, the prediction skill at the extended range is reported to be different ( Zhu et al. 2014 ; Wheeler et al. 2017 ). Most winter precipitation events along the West Coast are driven by moisture convergence associated with passing extratropical cyclones ( Bao et al. 2006 ; Dacre et al. 2015 ). At short to medium ranges, due to the coherent life cycle of cyclone events, cyclogenesis is highly predictable. At

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Stanley G. Benjamin
,
Eric P. James
,
Ming Hu
,
Curtis R. Alexander
,
Therese T. Ladwig
,
John M. Brown
,
Stephen S. Weygandt
,
David D. Turner
,
Patrick Minnis
,
William L. Smith Jr.
, and
Andrew K. Heidinger

conditions of light winds through errant downward longwave radiative fluxes. Furthermore, because ceiling and visibility hazards account for 27% of general aviation fatalities over the last 30 years ( Fultz and Ashley 2016 ), accurate clouds and precipitation forecasts are critical. Therefore, skillful prediction of PBL evolution through accurate specification of initial 3D hydrometeor fields is particularly important for accurate short-range cloud, precipitation and convective storm forecasts used in a

Open access
James D. Brown
,
Dong-Jun Seo
, and
Jun Du

forecasts from a range of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These include the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF; Du et al. 2009 ), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; Toth et al. 1997 ), and the Climate Forecast System (CFS; Saha et al. 2006 ) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Collectively, the SREF, GEFS, and CFS provide atmospheric forecasts from a few hours to several months into the future and cover hydrologic basins of a few hundred square

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Sophie Casanova
and
Bodo Ahrens

; favoring it over the newer product of the Ensemble Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project (information online at http://www.ensembles-eu.org ), which has at present 10 yr of available seasonal hindcasts. As the short-range product we use multimodel forecasts that are collected and delivered by the Short-range Numerical Weather Prediction (SRNWP)–Poor Man’s EPS (PEPS; see, e.g., Heizenreder et al. 2006 ) project. It collects the operational forecasts by limited

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Jorge E. Guerra
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Adam Clark
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Brian Matilla
,
Kent Knopfmeier
, and
Anthony E. Reinhart

convective storms (e.g., Wheatley et al. 2015 ; Jones et al. 2016 ). We demonstrate a clear effect of cycled data assimilation (DA), where POD in WoFS analyses and short-lead-time forecasts increases markedly with increasing storm age. We also show that DA-based improvements in thunderstorm forecasts decrease with increasing forecast length, but are maintained through 3 h of forecast lead time. Quantification of the impact of rapidly cycled DA on the quality of WoFS thunderstorm analysis and prediction

Free access
Guo Deng
,
Jun Du
,
Yushu Zhou
,
Ling Yan
,
Jing Chen
,
Fajing Chen
,
Hongqi Li
, and
Jingzhou Wang

.1002/qj.3730 . Deng , G. , and Coauthors , 2010 : Development of mesoscale ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center . Chin. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. , 21 , 513 – 523 , https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.05.001 . Du , J. , 2002 : Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction . J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. , 13 , 16 – 28 . Du , J. , and M. S. Tracton , 2001 : Implementation of a real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP

Open access
James Taylor
,
Takumi Honda
,
Arata Amemiya
,
Shigenori Otsuka
,
Yasumitsu Maejima
, and
Takemasa Miyoshi

estimation of analysis increments, resulting in suboptimal analysis and less accurate forecasts. Correct setting of the localization scale parameter is therefore essential to ensure that the best possible analysis is obtained. In this study sensitivity testing for horizontal localization scale is performed with the SCALE-LETKF in its real-time configuration setting, with the aim to determine the most suitable scale for short-range precipitation forecasting. Tuning of this parameter is performed using

Free access
David J. Stensrud
and
Jidong Gao

motion, and the potential for severe weather can be made from environmental information, observed storm evolution does not always match these expectations ( Johns and Hart 1993 ). This situation has led to the hope that convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which explicitly predict storm growth and development given the environmental conditions, can provide improved short-range forecast guidance. This deterministic numerical prediction of convective storms, in which the

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Maria Laura Poletti
,
Martina Lagasio
,
Antonio Parodi
,
Massimo Milelli
,
Vincenzo Mazzarella
,
Stefano Federico
,
Lorenzo Campo
,
Marco Falzacappa
, and
Francesco Silvestro

. L. , F. Silvestro , S. Davolio , F. Pignone , and N. Rebora , 2019 : Using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in a meteorological model to improve very short range hydrological forecasts . Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 23 , 3823 – 3841 , https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3823-2019 . Ramos Filho , G. M. , V. H. R. Coelho , E. da Silva Freitas , Y. Xuan , and C. da Neves Almeida , 2021 : An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and

Open access