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Chungu Lu, Huiling Yuan, Barry E. Schwartz, and Stanley G. Benjamin

report on how a time-lagged ensemble forecast system can be constructed using forecasts from the RUC, and evaluate how much skill this type of ensemble forecast can provide over each individual deterministic forecast for the very short range weather prediction of 1–3 h. This type of short-range ensemble forecast system could be used in short-range decision support systems, such as those for aviation weather forecast applications including air traffic management, in which case frequent updates to a

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Baoxiang Pan, Kuolin Hsu, Amir AghaKouchak, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Wayne Higgins

, Engineering, and Medicine 2016 ). For regions with distinct dynamics and sources of predictability, the prediction skill at the extended range is reported to be different ( Zhu et al. 2014 ; Wheeler et al. 2017 ). Most winter precipitation events along the West Coast are driven by moisture convergence associated with passing extratropical cyclones ( Bao et al. 2006 ; Dacre et al. 2015 ). At short to medium ranges, due to the coherent life cycle of cyclone events, cyclogenesis is highly predictable. At

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Stanley G. Benjamin, Eric P. James, Ming Hu, Curtis R. Alexander, Therese T. Ladwig, John M. Brown, Stephen S. Weygandt, David D. Turner, Patrick Minnis, William L. Smith Jr., and Andrew K. Heidinger

conditions of light winds through errant downward longwave radiative fluxes. Furthermore, because ceiling and visibility hazards account for 27% of general aviation fatalities over the last 30 years ( Fultz and Ashley 2016 ), accurate clouds and precipitation forecasts are critical. Therefore, skillful prediction of PBL evolution through accurate specification of initial 3D hydrometeor fields is particularly important for accurate short-range cloud, precipitation and convective storm forecasts used in a

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James D. Brown, Dong-Jun Seo, and Jun Du

forecasts from a range of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These include the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF; Du et al. 2009 ), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; Toth et al. 1997 ), and the Climate Forecast System (CFS; Saha et al. 2006 ) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Collectively, the SREF, GEFS, and CFS provide atmospheric forecasts from a few hours to several months into the future and cover hydrologic basins of a few hundred square

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Sophie Casanova and Bodo Ahrens

; favoring it over the newer product of the Ensemble Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project (information online at ), which has at present 10 yr of available seasonal hindcasts. As the short-range product we use multimodel forecasts that are collected and delivered by the Short-range Numerical Weather Prediction (SRNWP)–Poor Man’s EPS (PEPS; see, e.g., Heizenreder et al. 2006 ) project. It collects the operational forecasts by limited

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David J. Stensrud and Jidong Gao

motion, and the potential for severe weather can be made from environmental information, observed storm evolution does not always match these expectations ( Johns and Hart 1993 ). This situation has led to the hope that convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which explicitly predict storm growth and development given the environmental conditions, can provide improved short-range forecast guidance. This deterministic numerical prediction of convective storms, in which the

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H. Hersbach, R. Mureau, J. D. Opsteegh, and J. Barkmeijer

reordering will occur, such that perturbations relevant for the region under consideration are selected first. In order to enhance the performance of the ECMWF EPS (from now on denoted by EPS) for the short to early-medium range (up to day 5), a targeted ensemble prediction system (TEPS) was developed. This system is focused on the European area only (see Fig. 1 ) and the singular vectors are optimized for a forecast period of 72 h. Initiated at NCEP, substantial research is being performed in the

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Zied Ben Bouallègue

). Bentzien and Friederichs (2012) have shown that logistic regression also performed well within the context of short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts considering the first-guess probabilities as predictors. The extension introduced by Wilks (2009) made the logistic regression even more attractive. Extended logistic regression allows one to derive full probability distributions. Explicitly including the predictive threshold as part of the prediction equation, one single equation is used to

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David J. Stensrud and Nusrat Yussouf

and Buizza 2001 ). However, it is clear that the raw ensemble data still provide useful information. Du et al. (1997) show that raw 80-km forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system provide skillful 6-h PQPFs relative to climatology over 70% of the model domain. Results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) indicate that the raw ensemble forecasts provide skillful summertime predictions of light precipitation

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Huiling Yuan, John A. McGinley, Paul J. Schultz, Christopher J. Anderson, and Chungu Lu

provide more information for decision-making systems. In the past decade, short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF, Brooks et al. 1995 ) has been developed and implemented in different operational centers worldwide ( Lewis 2005 , and references within), such as the breeding-perturbed SREF (e.g., Toth and Kalnay 1997 ; Du et al. 2006 ) at NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the singular-vector-perturbed ensemble forecasts at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather

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