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Chungu Lu, Huiling Yuan, Barry E. Schwartz, and Stanley G. Benjamin

report on how a time-lagged ensemble forecast system can be constructed using forecasts from the RUC, and evaluate how much skill this type of ensemble forecast can provide over each individual deterministic forecast for the very short range weather prediction of 1–3 h. This type of short-range ensemble forecast system could be used in short-range decision support systems, such as those for aviation weather forecast applications including air traffic management, in which case frequent updates to a

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Baoxiang Pan, Kuolin Hsu, Amir AghaKouchak, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Wayne Higgins

, Engineering, and Medicine 2016 ). For regions with distinct dynamics and sources of predictability, the prediction skill at the extended range is reported to be different ( Zhu et al. 2014 ; Wheeler et al. 2017 ). Most winter precipitation events along the West Coast are driven by moisture convergence associated with passing extratropical cyclones ( Bao et al. 2006 ; Dacre et al. 2015 ). At short to medium ranges, due to the coherent life cycle of cyclone events, cyclogenesis is highly predictable. At

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James D. Brown, Dong-Jun Seo, and Jun Du

forecasts from a range of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These include the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF; Du et al. 2009 ), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; Toth et al. 1997 ), and the Climate Forecast System (CFS; Saha et al. 2006 ) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Collectively, the SREF, GEFS, and CFS provide atmospheric forecasts from a few hours to several months into the future and cover hydrologic basins of a few hundred square

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H. Hersbach, R. Mureau, J. D. Opsteegh, and J. Barkmeijer

reordering will occur, such that perturbations relevant for the region under consideration are selected first. In order to enhance the performance of the ECMWF EPS (from now on denoted by EPS) for the short to early-medium range (up to day 5), a targeted ensemble prediction system (TEPS) was developed. This system is focused on the European area only (see Fig. 1 ) and the singular vectors are optimized for a forecast period of 72 h. Initiated at NCEP, substantial research is being performed in the

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Guillaume Thirel, Fabienne Rousset-Regimbeau, Eric Martin, and Florence Habets

an effort has been made, to analyze EPS and ESPS for dry and wet events and high and low flows. The scope of the study is then limited to short-range (48 h) streamflow forecasts for which predictions were available using both systems. Because ESPSs are a relatively new field of hydrometeorology, such a comparison is quite state of the art and can be informative in terms of our knowledge of ESPSs. After the description of the SIM model and the meteorological data used, the conditions of the test

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A. Arribas, K. B. Robertson, and K. R. Mylne

as those run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996 ), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; Toth and Kalnay 1993 ), or the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC; Houtekamer et al. 1996 ), are designed for medium-range weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate whether the PEPS may provide a viable alternative system more suited to short-range use. Many forecasting centers now have access to medium-range ensemble products

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William R. Ryerson and Joshua P. Hacker

little skill. The somewhat more skillful results attained by direct, uncalibrated q c predictions in RH14 were from stochastic verification of an ensemble; each individual ensemble member was unskillful on its own. Similarly, Zhou et al. (2009) obtained qualitatively better results than Geiszler et al. (2000) when applying the same simple visibility parameterization to NWP q c predictions from the 32-km horizontal resolution, 21-member Short Range Ensemble Forecast system produced by the

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David J. Stensrud and Nusrat Yussouf

3) to provide a pathway to operational high-resolution temperature and air quality forecasting. As part of this pilot program, a short-range ensemble forecasting system was constructed to evaluate if an ensemble approach can provide improved 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature predictions when compared against the statistical postprocessing available from present operational forecast models. Statistical postprocessing of numerical weather prediction models has been provided to forecasters

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Ying-Hwa Kuo, Evelyn G. Donall, and Melvyn A. Shapiro

measurement errors of a number of hypothetical profiler networkswas tested. Our results demonstrate that profiler wind observations would have a positive impact on short-range numericalweather prediction with a simple static initialization. We also found that forecasts based on retrieved temperatures(calculated from profiler wind data) are significantly better than those ifased on direct radiometric temperaturemeasurements (using climatology 'as the first guess for radiometric retrieval). However, the

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Herbert D. Entrekin, James W. Wilson, and Keith D. Hage

Avovs'r1969 H. D. ENTREIK[N, J. W. WILSON AND K.' D. HAGE 473Evaluation of the Atlantic City Mesonet for Short Range Prediction of Aviation Terminal Weather~HERBERT ~D. ENTREKIN, JAMES W. WILSON AND KEITH D. HAGE2 The Travelers Research Corporations, Hartford, Conn. (Manuscript received 10 March 1969, in revised form 3 June 1969)ABSTRACT Two years of mesoscale weather data collected

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