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Chungu Lu
,
Huiling Yuan
,
Barry E. Schwartz
, and
Stanley G. Benjamin

report on how a time-lagged ensemble forecast system can be constructed using forecasts from the RUC, and evaluate how much skill this type of ensemble forecast can provide over each individual deterministic forecast for the very short range weather prediction of 1–3 h. This type of short-range ensemble forecast system could be used in short-range decision support systems, such as those for aviation weather forecast applications including air traffic management, in which case frequent updates to a

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Baoxiang Pan
,
Kuolin Hsu
,
Amir AghaKouchak
,
Soroosh Sorooshian
, and
Wayne Higgins

, Engineering, and Medicine 2016 ). For regions with distinct dynamics and sources of predictability, the prediction skill at the extended range is reported to be different ( Zhu et al. 2014 ; Wheeler et al. 2017 ). Most winter precipitation events along the West Coast are driven by moisture convergence associated with passing extratropical cyclones ( Bao et al. 2006 ; Dacre et al. 2015 ). At short to medium ranges, due to the coherent life cycle of cyclone events, cyclogenesis is highly predictable. At

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Stanley G. Benjamin
,
Eric P. James
,
Ming Hu
,
Curtis R. Alexander
,
Therese T. Ladwig
,
John M. Brown
,
Stephen S. Weygandt
,
David D. Turner
,
Patrick Minnis
,
William L. Smith Jr.
, and
Andrew K. Heidinger

conditions of light winds through errant downward longwave radiative fluxes. Furthermore, because ceiling and visibility hazards account for 27% of general aviation fatalities over the last 30 years ( Fultz and Ashley 2016 ), accurate clouds and precipitation forecasts are critical. Therefore, skillful prediction of PBL evolution through accurate specification of initial 3D hydrometeor fields is particularly important for accurate short-range cloud, precipitation and convective storm forecasts used in a

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James D. Brown
,
Dong-Jun Seo
, and
Jun Du

forecasts from a range of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These include the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF; Du et al. 2009 ), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; Toth et al. 1997 ), and the Climate Forecast System (CFS; Saha et al. 2006 ) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Collectively, the SREF, GEFS, and CFS provide atmospheric forecasts from a few hours to several months into the future and cover hydrologic basins of a few hundred square

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Sophie Casanova
and
Bodo Ahrens

; favoring it over the newer product of the Ensemble Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project (information online at http://www.ensembles-eu.org ), which has at present 10 yr of available seasonal hindcasts. As the short-range product we use multimodel forecasts that are collected and delivered by the Short-range Numerical Weather Prediction (SRNWP)–Poor Man’s EPS (PEPS; see, e.g., Heizenreder et al. 2006 ) project. It collects the operational forecasts by limited

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Jorge E. Guerra
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Adam Clark
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Brian Matilla
,
Kent Knopfmeier
, and
Anthony E. Reinhart

convective storms (e.g., Wheatley et al. 2015 ; Jones et al. 2016 ). We demonstrate a clear effect of cycled data assimilation (DA), where POD in WoFS analyses and short-lead-time forecasts increases markedly with increasing storm age. We also show that DA-based improvements in thunderstorm forecasts decrease with increasing forecast length, but are maintained through 3 h of forecast lead time. Quantification of the impact of rapidly cycled DA on the quality of WoFS thunderstorm analysis and prediction

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Guo Deng
,
Jun Du
,
Yushu Zhou
,
Ling Yan
,
Jing Chen
,
Fajing Chen
,
Hongqi Li
, and
Jingzhou Wang

.1002/qj.3730 . Deng , G. , and Coauthors , 2010 : Development of mesoscale ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center . Chin. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. , 21 , 513 – 523 , https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.05.001 . Du , J. , 2002 : Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction . J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. , 13 , 16 – 28 . Du , J. , and M. S. Tracton , 2001 : Implementation of a real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP

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David J. Stensrud
and
Jidong Gao

motion, and the potential for severe weather can be made from environmental information, observed storm evolution does not always match these expectations ( Johns and Hart 1993 ). This situation has led to the hope that convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which explicitly predict storm growth and development given the environmental conditions, can provide improved short-range forecast guidance. This deterministic numerical prediction of convective storms, in which the

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Zied Ben Bouallègue

). Bentzien and Friederichs (2012) have shown that logistic regression also performed well within the context of short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts considering the first-guess probabilities as predictors. The extension introduced by Wilks (2009) made the logistic regression even more attractive. Extended logistic regression allows one to derive full probability distributions. Explicitly including the predictive threshold as part of the prediction equation, one single equation is used to

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David J. Stensrud
and
Nusrat Yussouf

and Buizza 2001 ). However, it is clear that the raw ensemble data still provide useful information. Du et al. (1997) show that raw 80-km forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system provide skillful 6-h PQPFs relative to climatology over 70% of the model domain. Results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) indicate that the raw ensemble forecasts provide skillful summertime predictions of light precipitation

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