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, and instability into snowfall. These storms are generally associated with a transient low pressure system (i.e., a midlatitude cyclone or a northeaster). Yet, several studies have found a large contrast between non-lake-effect snowfall trends and lake-effect snowfall trends, as follows. Braham and Dungey (1984) , Norton and Bolsenga (1993) , Burnett et al. (2003) , Ellis and Johnson (2004) , and Kunkel et al. (2009a) found a significant increase in snowfall for stations that experience lake
, and instability into snowfall. These storms are generally associated with a transient low pressure system (i.e., a midlatitude cyclone or a northeaster). Yet, several studies have found a large contrast between non-lake-effect snowfall trends and lake-effect snowfall trends, as follows. Braham and Dungey (1984) , Norton and Bolsenga (1993) , Burnett et al. (2003) , Ellis and Johnson (2004) , and Kunkel et al. (2009a) found a significant increase in snowfall for stations that experience lake
effects. Snow is an important component of annual runoff, recharge, and water supplies, and greatly affects water management in the northern and western United States. Rapid melt of snowpack is a major cause of floods in the northern United States. Recent studies have examined historical variability in snow cover ( Hughes and Robinson 1996 ; Frei et al. 1999 ). However, studies of trends in other aspects of snow climatology, such as snowfall and snow depth, have generally examined records from the
effects. Snow is an important component of annual runoff, recharge, and water supplies, and greatly affects water management in the northern and western United States. Rapid melt of snowpack is a major cause of floods in the northern United States. Recent studies have examined historical variability in snow cover ( Hughes and Robinson 1996 ; Frei et al. 1999 ). However, studies of trends in other aspects of snow climatology, such as snowfall and snow depth, have generally examined records from the
, as an extension of Kawazoe et al. (2020) . Here we will extend the analysis of recent trend detected from the historical data, which should be examined in parallel to global warming response in future projections. We expect that a close relationship between surface wind and heavy snowfall area in Hokkaido, shown by many studies, enables us to explore the heavy snowfall distribution in the future climates. Again, the heavy snowfall day is defined as the day when the snowfall exceeds 10 mm in
, as an extension of Kawazoe et al. (2020) . Here we will extend the analysis of recent trend detected from the historical data, which should be examined in parallel to global warming response in future projections. We expect that a close relationship between surface wind and heavy snowfall area in Hokkaido, shown by many studies, enables us to explore the heavy snowfall distribution in the future climates. Again, the heavy snowfall day is defined as the day when the snowfall exceeds 10 mm in
future changes in groundwater recharge and snowfall resulting from climate change using output from a GCM to adjust input weather records ( Hay et al. 2011 ). The paper does not evaluate the quality of the future climate trends derived from the GCM, focusing on trends rather than absolute values of potential future changes in hydrologic quantities. The intent of the paper is to look specifically at the changes in groundwater recharge and snowfall that could result from climate change. The model
future changes in groundwater recharge and snowfall resulting from climate change using output from a GCM to adjust input weather records ( Hay et al. 2011 ). The paper does not evaluate the quality of the future climate trends derived from the GCM, focusing on trends rather than absolute values of potential future changes in hydrologic quantities. The intent of the paper is to look specifically at the changes in groundwater recharge and snowfall that could result from climate change. The model
records for use in trend analyses. Distinct patterns of cold-season snowfall trends have been identified ( Kunkel et al. 2009a ), including steep twentieth-century declines along the West Coast, Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern margins of the seasonal snowpack. Snowfall has been increasing in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, portions of the north-central United States, and in the Great Lakes–northern Ohio Valley. Although trends in mean snowfall totals are an important indicator of changes in
records for use in trend analyses. Distinct patterns of cold-season snowfall trends have been identified ( Kunkel et al. 2009a ), including steep twentieth-century declines along the West Coast, Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern margins of the seasonal snowpack. Snowfall has been increasing in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, portions of the north-central United States, and in the Great Lakes–northern Ohio Valley. Although trends in mean snowfall totals are an important indicator of changes in
. 2002 ), however. Several studies ( Braham and Dungey 1984 ; Norton and Bolsenga 1993 ; Burnett et al. 2003 ; Ellis and Johnson 2004 ; Kunkel et al. 2009a ) found that lake-effect snowfall increased in various locations in the Great Lakes region during the twentieth century. Table 1 qualitatively describes the direction of lake-effect trends determined by previous studies. Braham and Dungey (1984) found wintertime snowfall increased from the 1930s to the late 1970s within the Lake Michigan
. 2002 ), however. Several studies ( Braham and Dungey 1984 ; Norton and Bolsenga 1993 ; Burnett et al. 2003 ; Ellis and Johnson 2004 ; Kunkel et al. 2009a ) found that lake-effect snowfall increased in various locations in the Great Lakes region during the twentieth century. Table 1 qualitatively describes the direction of lake-effect trends determined by previous studies. Braham and Dungey (1984) found wintertime snowfall increased from the 1930s to the late 1970s within the Lake Michigan
snowmelt runoff in spring ( Cayan et al. 2001 ; Stewart et al. 2005 ) indicate that an important part of the changes in runoff timing has been the earlier onset of springtime snowmelt across the region, but the possible contribution of shifts toward more rainfall and less snowfall has received less attention to date. In the northeastern states, trends toward decreases in the fraction of precipitation as snowfall have already been documented ( Huntington et al. 2004 ). To better understand the nature
snowmelt runoff in spring ( Cayan et al. 2001 ; Stewart et al. 2005 ) indicate that an important part of the changes in runoff timing has been the earlier onset of springtime snowmelt across the region, but the possible contribution of shifts toward more rainfall and less snowfall has received less attention to date. In the northeastern states, trends toward decreases in the fraction of precipitation as snowfall have already been documented ( Huntington et al. 2004 ). To better understand the nature
1993 ; Ellis and Leathers 1996 ; Leathers and Ellis 1996 ). Monotonic 70-yr snowfall increases of up to 120% have been found across the lake-effect snowbelts of Michigan ( Braham and Dungey 1984 ). Similarly, 60-yr snowfall trends (1931–90) of 0.5–2.6 cm yr −1 across the lake-effect regions of western Pennsylvania and New York have been documented ( Leathers and Ellis 1996 ). Explanation of the apparent increases in lake-effect snowfall has been elusive. Leathers and Ellis (1996) found that an
1993 ; Ellis and Leathers 1996 ; Leathers and Ellis 1996 ). Monotonic 70-yr snowfall increases of up to 120% have been found across the lake-effect snowbelts of Michigan ( Braham and Dungey 1984 ). Similarly, 60-yr snowfall trends (1931–90) of 0.5–2.6 cm yr −1 across the lake-effect regions of western Pennsylvania and New York have been documented ( Leathers and Ellis 1996 ). Explanation of the apparent increases in lake-effect snowfall has been elusive. Leathers and Ellis (1996) found that an
OCTOBER 1993NORTON AND BOLSENGA1943Spatiotemporal Trends in Lake Effect and Continental Snowfall in the Laurentian Great Lakes, 1951-1980 D. C. NORTON AND S. J. BOLSENGAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory /NOA/l, ,,Inn Arbor, Michigan(Manuscript received 18 March 1991, in final form 27 March 1993) ABSTRACT A new raster-based monthly snowfall climatology was derived from 1951-1980 snowfall station data for theLaurentian Great Lakes. An automated
OCTOBER 1993NORTON AND BOLSENGA1943Spatiotemporal Trends in Lake Effect and Continental Snowfall in the Laurentian Great Lakes, 1951-1980 D. C. NORTON AND S. J. BOLSENGAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory /NOA/l, ,,Inn Arbor, Michigan(Manuscript received 18 March 1991, in final form 27 March 1993) ABSTRACT A new raster-based monthly snowfall climatology was derived from 1951-1980 snowfall station data for theLaurentian Great Lakes. An automated
—mostly negative—for the longest and most robust time series in these regions. It is not certain, however, that many erroneous zeros remain near the end of the individual records and thus the negative sign of such regional trends may indeed be an artifact of this problem. December–March trends of the 18 regions beginning in more recent decades become mixed (and still insignificant) between positive and negative trends. 2. Data The first and very convenient source of snowfall values was the data archive of the
—mostly negative—for the longest and most robust time series in these regions. It is not certain, however, that many erroneous zeros remain near the end of the individual records and thus the negative sign of such regional trends may indeed be an artifact of this problem. December–March trends of the 18 regions beginning in more recent decades become mixed (and still insignificant) between positive and negative trends. 2. Data The first and very convenient source of snowfall values was the data archive of the
