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( McGuire et al. 2006 ). To predict the role of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems in the response of the Earth system to global change requires the integration of climate dynamics, ecosystem dynamics, and large-scale hydrology in high-latitude regions. The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) Project was designed to assess the ability of models to simulate water/energy and CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere, and freshwater delivery to the ocean for the Alaskan region in the 1980s and 1990s. The
( McGuire et al. 2006 ). To predict the role of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems in the response of the Earth system to global change requires the integration of climate dynamics, ecosystem dynamics, and large-scale hydrology in high-latitude regions. The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) Project was designed to assess the ability of models to simulate water/energy and CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere, and freshwater delivery to the ocean for the Alaskan region in the 1980s and 1990s. The
al. 2006 ; Thompson et al. 2006 ). The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was set up to evaluate uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates in Alaska and the adjacent Yukon Territory associated with 1) alternative driving datasets and 2) alternative simulation models. As part of the WALE, Kimball et al. ( Kimball et al. 2007 ) conducted a study of carbon balance in the WALE region that compared the simulations of remote sensing and process-based models during recent decades
al. 2006 ; Thompson et al. 2006 ). The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was set up to evaluate uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates in Alaska and the adjacent Yukon Territory associated with 1) alternative driving datasets and 2) alternative simulation models. As part of the WALE, Kimball et al. ( Kimball et al. 2007 ) conducted a study of carbon balance in the WALE region that compared the simulations of remote sensing and process-based models during recent decades
; McDonald et al. 2004 ) and summer greening ( Myneni et al. 1997a ), indicating a generally positive boreal-arctic NPP response. However, other studies indicate a more variable productivity response to regional warming and associated earlier and longer growing seasons depending on soil moisture and nutrient availability, vegetation type, and disturbance regime ( Barber et al. 2000 ; Kimball et al. 2000 ; Wilmking et al. 2004 ; Goetz et al. 2005 ). The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was
; McDonald et al. 2004 ) and summer greening ( Myneni et al. 1997a ), indicating a generally positive boreal-arctic NPP response. However, other studies indicate a more variable productivity response to regional warming and associated earlier and longer growing seasons depending on soil moisture and nutrient availability, vegetation type, and disturbance regime ( Barber et al. 2000 ; Kimball et al. 2000 ; Wilmking et al. 2004 ; Goetz et al. 2005 ). The Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was
better understand the effect of data biases and uncertainties on simulated water budgets, we perform a series of model simulations using three climate drivers and three methods for estimating PET across the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) domain. Goals of the WALE project include identification of uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates with respect to uncertainties in (i) driving datasets and (ii) among different models. The present paper focuses on how the limitations and
better understand the effect of data biases and uncertainties on simulated water budgets, we perform a series of model simulations using three climate drivers and three methods for estimating PET across the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) domain. Goals of the WALE project include identification of uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates with respect to uncertainties in (i) driving datasets and (ii) among different models. The present paper focuses on how the limitations and
1. Introduction and objectives The goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) is to investigate the role of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems in the response of the Arctic system to global change. To further this goal, climate datasets and climate model results are compiled, collected, and compared for the WALE study region, which includes land areas in Alaska and northwestern Canada at 55°–70°N, 165°–110°W approximately [see McGuire et al. 2006, manuscript submitted to Earth
1. Introduction and objectives The goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) is to investigate the role of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems in the response of the Arctic system to global change. To further this goal, climate datasets and climate model results are compiled, collected, and compared for the WALE study region, which includes land areas in Alaska and northwestern Canada at 55°–70°N, 165°–110°W approximately [see McGuire et al. 2006, manuscript submitted to Earth
1. Introduction One of the central themes of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) is to investigate uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates with respect to variations in different driving datasets. This will provide scientists with a better understanding of how the different datasets influence the hydrology models, leading to a more complete description of model uncertainty. Such analyses are critical to understanding the larger WALE goal of determining how the Arctic
1. Introduction One of the central themes of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) is to investigate uncertainties in regional hydrology and carbon estimates with respect to variations in different driving datasets. This will provide scientists with a better understanding of how the different datasets influence the hydrology models, leading to a more complete description of model uncertainty. Such analyses are critical to understanding the larger WALE goal of determining how the Arctic
Sloan ( Sewall and Sloan 2004 ) provided a clear picture of linkages between changing Arctic surface conditions and precipitation patterns in western North America, it did not address the dynamic response of the fully interactive climate system to the driving forcing behind Arctic ice reduction (i.e., increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the associated warming temperatures). In addition, there is the possibility that this potentially important result of Sewall and Sloan ( Sewall
Sloan ( Sewall and Sloan 2004 ) provided a clear picture of linkages between changing Arctic surface conditions and precipitation patterns in western North America, it did not address the dynamic response of the fully interactive climate system to the driving forcing behind Arctic ice reduction (i.e., increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the associated warming temperatures). In addition, there is the possibility that this potentially important result of Sewall and Sloan ( Sewall
of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies and showed that cold winters across East Asia are associated with warm anomalies in the Barents–Kara Seas, whereas severe winters in North America are linked to warm anomalies in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. On the other hand, thermal conditions in the middle and low latitudes also play a role in resulting thermal gradients, which is one of reasons for the uncertainty of linkages between the Arctic and the middle and low latitudes. The Arctic SATs
of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies and showed that cold winters across East Asia are associated with warm anomalies in the Barents–Kara Seas, whereas severe winters in North America are linked to warm anomalies in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. On the other hand, thermal conditions in the middle and low latitudes also play a role in resulting thermal gradients, which is one of reasons for the uncertainty of linkages between the Arctic and the middle and low latitudes. The Arctic SATs
Govekar 2014 ). This potential midlatitude–Arctic linkage deserves further investigation to understand the combined influence of both local ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes in the BK area and remote influences on sea ice extent by atmospheric heat advection. This synthesis of recent publications and new results, performed independently with differing analysis approaches and based on both observations and model experiments, provides a consistent suite of evidence for a linkage between regional
Govekar 2014 ). This potential midlatitude–Arctic linkage deserves further investigation to understand the combined influence of both local ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes in the BK area and remote influences on sea ice extent by atmospheric heat advection. This synthesis of recent publications and new results, performed independently with differing analysis approaches and based on both observations and model experiments, provides a consistent suite of evidence for a linkage between regional
continent. All of these events have been linked to Arctic warming in both the scientific literature and popular media. Given the short observational record, large internal atmospheric variability, and questions surrounding the underpinning theoretical arguments, the robustness of these Arctic–midlatitude linkages is under question ( Screen and Simmonds 2013 ; Barnes 2013 ; Screen et al. 2014a ; Wallace et al. 2014 ; Barnes and Screen 2015 ; Hoskins and Woollings 2015 ). A better understanding of
continent. All of these events have been linked to Arctic warming in both the scientific literature and popular media. Given the short observational record, large internal atmospheric variability, and questions surrounding the underpinning theoretical arguments, the robustness of these Arctic–midlatitude linkages is under question ( Screen and Simmonds 2013 ; Barnes 2013 ; Screen et al. 2014a ; Wallace et al. 2014 ; Barnes and Screen 2015 ; Hoskins and Woollings 2015 ). A better understanding of
