Area-averaged BSS (relative to climatology) for POAMA median and tercile hindcasts for forecasts initialized on 1 Sep, 1 Aug, 1 Jul, and 1 Jun. For the tercile hindcasts, the full Brier scores are calculated by summing over all three categories according to the definition of Brier (1950). Comparative skill for the Lo et al. (2007, Table 3) statistical forecasts are also shown (based on hindcasts for 1948–2004). The P2-S skill is based on 50 yr of hindcasts over 1960–2009, and for P2-M is based on the 31 yr covering 1981–2011. All available grid points north of 28°S are averaged.