A Simple Yes-No Hail Forecasting Technique

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Abstract

An objective method of hail forecasting is developed, employing as predictors (1) the ratio of cloud depth below the freezing level to the cloud's estimated vertical development and (2) the height of the freezing level. Based on dependent data for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, the method showed common and Appleman skill scores of +0.65 and +0.66, respectively.

Abstract

An objective method of hail forecasting is developed, employing as predictors (1) the ratio of cloud depth below the freezing level to the cloud's estimated vertical development and (2) the height of the freezing level. Based on dependent data for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, the method showed common and Appleman skill scores of +0.65 and +0.66, respectively.

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