A Method for Determining Probabilities of Surface Temperature Extremes

Paul I. Tattelman Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, Mass. 01731

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Arthur J. Kantor Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, Mass. 01731

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Abstract

An objective method for determining probabilities of surface temperature extremes is described herein. Least-squares linear regression equations have been developed to estimate temperatures that would be equaled or surpassed 1, 5 and 10% of the hours at any given location during the warmest and coldest months of the year. These equations are based on an index calculated from three generally available parameters: 1) mean monthly temperature (usually July and January), 2) mean daily maximum temperature for the month and 3) mean daily minimum temperature for the month.

Abstract

An objective method for determining probabilities of surface temperature extremes is described herein. Least-squares linear regression equations have been developed to estimate temperatures that would be equaled or surpassed 1, 5 and 10% of the hours at any given location during the warmest and coldest months of the year. These equations are based on an index calculated from three generally available parameters: 1) mean monthly temperature (usually July and January), 2) mean daily maximum temperature for the month and 3) mean daily minimum temperature for the month.

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