A Technique for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Hurricane Modification Experiments

Richard W. Knight National Hurricane and Experimental Meteorology Laboratory, NOAA, Coral Gables, Fla. 33124

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Glenn W. Brier Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523

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Abstract

Plans are underway to attempt to reduce the destructive force of hurricanes by artificially modifying their structure by means of cloud seeding. Since the natural variability of meteorological elements observed in hurricanes is high, the success of the project depends upon establishing a cause and effect relationship between the seeding and the hurricane's response. The small sample of mature hurricanes coupled with rigorous selection criteria make a randomized experiment impractical. Therefore, an evaluation technique based on the concept of randomization in time is developed.

Abstract

Plans are underway to attempt to reduce the destructive force of hurricanes by artificially modifying their structure by means of cloud seeding. Since the natural variability of meteorological elements observed in hurricanes is high, the success of the project depends upon establishing a cause and effect relationship between the seeding and the hurricane's response. The small sample of mature hurricanes coupled with rigorous selection criteria make a randomized experiment impractical. Therefore, an evaluation technique based on the concept of randomization in time is developed.

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