The author is grateful to John Cortinas for providing the dataset employed for illustrating the methodology in the example section, and to Kim Elmore and Jeanne Schneider for a discussion of various aspects of the dataset.
Brooks, H., and C. A. Doswell III, 1995: A comparison of measures- oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting,11, 288–303.
Donaldson, R. J., R. M. Dyer, and M. J. Krauss, 1975: An objective evaluator of techniques for predicting severe weather events. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Severe Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 321–326.
Doswell, C. A., III, R. Davies-Jones, and D. Keller, 1990: On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Wea. Forecasting,5, 576–585.
Gandin, L. S., and A. Murphy, 1992: Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev.,120, 361–370.
Hamill, T. M., 1997: Reliability diagrams for multi-category probabilistic forecasts, Wea. Forecasting,12, in press.
Kendall, M. G., and A. Stuart, 1969: The Advanced Theory of Statistics. Vol. 1. Hafner Publishing, 439 pp.
Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag.,30, 291–303.
Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting,8, 281–293.
——, 1996: The Finley affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting,11, 3–20.
——, and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification, Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 1330–1338.
——, and ——, 1992: Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting,7, 435–455.
——, B. G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen, 1989: Diagnostic verification of temperature forecasts. Wea. Forecasting,4, 485–501.
O’Hagan, A., 1994: Kendall’s Advanced Theory of Statistics. Vol. 2B, Bayesian Inference, Halsted Press, 330 pp.
Schaefer, J. T., 1990: The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill, Wea. Forecasting,5, 570–575.
Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, 467 pp.