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  • View in gallery
    Fig. 1.

    Operational cloud-seeding project target areas for enhancement of winter snowpack in the mountains of the western United States in 2015 (colored green). No projects occurred in the states that are colored blue. (Source: North American Weather Modification Council.)

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    Fig. 2.

    Locations of major research projects in the western United States that were designed to evaluate the feasibility of orographic enhancement of snowpack through cloud seeding over the period 1960–2019.

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 3.

    Examples of (left) WRF-simulated and (right) HYSPLIT-simulated AgI number concentrations using a logarithmic scale [log(m−3)] at three vertical levels: (a) 2500, (b) 3000, and (c) 3500 m MSL. The ground-based AgI generators are at the southern edge of the plume indicated by the stars on the HYSPLIT maps. The WRF maps include terrain contours (1500 and 2500 m) and state lines for Idaho.

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 4.

    Three-dimensional depictions of the topography of the Medicine Bow Range in Wyoming, AgI aerosol number concentration (>100 L−1 for visible plumes), and wind vectors at three levels [~2800 (yellow), ~3600 m (blue), and ~4400 (purple) m MSL] at three times separated by 90 min, shown as a (left) bird’s-eye view from the south and (right) side views from the southeast. (Adapted from Xue et al. (2014).]

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 5.

    Example of seeding lines observed during the 2017 SNOWIE campaign. Shown, from a single pass by the Wyoming King Air, are in situ measured (a) hydrometeor concentration for liquid droplets (blue; from Cloud Droplet Probe) and ice particles (red; only particles >50 μm in diameter, from 2DS probe) and (b) bulk condensed water content for liquid (blue) and ice (red), both from the deep-cone Nevzorov probe. (c) The vertical cross-section of W-band reflectivity during the same pass. The horizontal dotted line is the flight track. The locations of echoes resulting from seeding plumes are highlighted (green line). (d) A time-coincident 0.5° plan-position indicator scan using a ground-based X-band Doppler on Wheels, with the horizontal extent of the echo resulting from the seeding plume also highlighted. Also shown are 2DS probe particle size distributions (e) measured inside the plumes (black) and just upwind of the plumes (blue) and (f) corresponding two-dimensional hydrometeor shadows (left) outside the plumes and (right) inside the plumes.

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 6.

    Monthly time series of accumulative precipitation (mm) for (a) 2001–02, (b) 2003–04, (c) 2005–06, and (d) 2007–08. Solid line is simulated precipitation with the WRF Model at SNOTEL mountain site locations. Dashed lines are SNOTEL measurements, with gray shades representing 1 standard deviation from the average daily precipitation totals at SNOTEL sites. The dots are Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) monthly averaged snowfall estimates. [From Rasmussen et al. (2011).]

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 7.

    Schematic of the AgI–cloud interactions that are simulated in the seeding parameterization. [Adapted from Xue et al. (2013a), with additional parameterizations now included in the scheme.]

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Wintertime Orographic Cloud Seeding—A Review

Robert M. Rauber Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

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Bart Geerts Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming

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Lulin Xue Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Jeffrey French Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming

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Katja Friedrich Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado

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Roy M. Rasmussen Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Sarah A. Tessendorf Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Derek R. Blestrud Idaho Power Company, Boise, Idaho

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Melvin L. Kunkel Idaho Power Company, Boise, Idaho

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Shaun Parkinson Idaho Power Company, Boise, Idaho

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Abstract

This paper reviews research conducted over the last six decades to understand and quantify the efficacy of wintertime orographic cloud seeding to increase winter snowpack and water supplies within a mountain basin. The fundamental hypothesis underlying cloud seeding as a method to enhance precipitation from wintertime orographic cloud systems is that a cloud’s natural precipitation efficiency can be enhanced by converting supercooled water to ice upstream and over a mountain range in such a manner that newly created ice particles can grow and fall to the ground as additional snow on a specified target area. The review summarizes the results of physical, statistical, and modeling studies aimed at evaluating this underlying hypothesis, with a focus on results from more recent experiments that take advantage of modern instrumentation and advanced computation capabilities. Recent advances in assessment and operations are also reviewed, and recommendations for future experiments, based on the successes and failures of experiments of the past, are given.