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AN EXPERIMENT IN PROGNOSTICATION

Sverre PetterssenUniversity of Chicago

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M. A. EstoqueUniversity of Chicago

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Lawrence A. HughesU. S. Weather Bureau

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Abstract

An experiment was conducted during the period 11 January to 21 February 1956, for the purpose of determining the manner in which graphical integrations can best be used in providing prognostic charts for sea level and for the 500-millibar level. While the graphical integrations were used as a first approximation, supplementary techniques were applied to obtain final forecasts of the pressure distribution at sea level. The results of the verification are discussed and compared with those pertaining to other forecasting procedures. The geographical distribution of errors is discussed and interpreted.

Abstract

An experiment was conducted during the period 11 January to 21 February 1956, for the purpose of determining the manner in which graphical integrations can best be used in providing prognostic charts for sea level and for the 500-millibar level. While the graphical integrations were used as a first approximation, supplementary techniques were applied to obtain final forecasts of the pressure distribution at sea level. The results of the verification are discussed and compared with those pertaining to other forecasting procedures. The geographical distribution of errors is discussed and interpreted.

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