All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 124 8 2
PDF Downloads 7 0 0

ON THE COMPARISON OF ONE OR MORE SETS OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS

Irving I. GringortenGeophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center

Search for other papers by Irving I. Gringorten in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Full access

Abstract

General expressions for the expected score for accuracy, score for skill and for operational value of the forecasts are developed and discussed. The expressions are then applied to the special case of two-class predictors and predictand, and an example is given to illustate how one set of probability forecasts can meet the operational requirements better than another set, even though both sets of forecasts are equally accurate and equally skillful.

Abstract

General expressions for the expected score for accuracy, score for skill and for operational value of the forecasts are developed and discussed. The expressions are then applied to the special case of two-class predictors and predictand, and an example is given to illustate how one set of probability forecasts can meet the operational requirements better than another set, even though both sets of forecasts are equally accurate and equally skillful.

Save