PREDICTION OF HURRICANE MOTION WITH USE OF ORTHOGONAL POLYNOMIALS

Donald L. Jorgensen U. S. Weather Bureau

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Abstract

The Wadsworth-Bryan method of specifying atmospheric circulation patterns is used as a basis for developing a hurricane forecasting procedure. Regression equations have been calculated using persistency and circulation parameters to give 24-hr components of motion for hurricanes threatening the middle and north Atlantic coast regions. The final forecast is expressed in terms of probability areas.

Abstract

The Wadsworth-Bryan method of specifying atmospheric circulation patterns is used as a basis for developing a hurricane forecasting procedure. Regression equations have been calculated using persistency and circulation parameters to give 24-hr components of motion for hurricanes threatening the middle and north Atlantic coast regions. The final forecast is expressed in terms of probability areas.

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