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A Note on Predictability

Stanley J. JacobsDept. of Meteorology and Oceanography, and Dept. of Engineering Mechanics, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104

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Abstract

It is assumed that in making a forecast the initial state of the system is known subject to an initial error of measurement. Given an upper bound for the initial error, rigorous bounds are determined for the error of the forecast and for the time interval in which the current error in the forecast is less than a pre-assigned values.

Abstract

It is assumed that in making a forecast the initial state of the system is known subject to an initial error of measurement. Given an upper bound for the initial error, rigorous bounds are determined for the error of the forecast and for the time interval in which the current error in the forecast is less than a pre-assigned values.

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