Abstract
Coherent baroclinic wave packets are present in the Southern Hemisphere, most clearly in the summer season. These coherent packets are also found in a hierarchy of models of nonlinear baroclinic instability-a two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model on a β-plane, a two-level primitive equation (PE) model, and a general circulation model. The flows are chaotic, but the packet itself can remain remarkably coherent, despite the complex evolution of the flow within the packet. In both QG and PE models, the packets become more robust as the supercriticality of the flow is reduced. In both models and the observations, the packets move with a group velocity that is greater than the phase speed of the individual disturbances, so that these disturbances exhibit downstream development. The structure of the baroclinic waves in the packet as a function of longitude resembles the life cycles of sinusoidal baroclinic waves as a function of time. More than one packet can exist in the domain at the same time. In the QG model, the number of packets increases in a systematic way as the length of the channel increases.
