This work was supported by a grant for the NOAA/Office of Global Programs to the Stanley P. Hayes Center for the University of Washington. Many thanks for the long-term support of Ed Sarachik, David Battisti, and Margaret Blacklab. Thanks also to Ying-Quei Chen and Nate Mantua for explanations of the intricacies of the Zebiak–Cane model and the Battisti model. Many useful comments came from Yan Xue and two anonymous reviewers.
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