This work was initiated while Craig Bishop was employed by the Universities Space Research Association in the Mesoscale Processes Branch of the Goddard Space Flight Facility. The authors would like to thank Robert Adler and Michael Kalb for their support during this period. Since August of 1996, Craig Bishop’s research efforts have been supported by NSF Grant ATM 96-12502. The authors would also like to thank Eugenia Kalnay for her encouragement and enthusiasm and for making a 2-month work sojourn at NCEP possible for Craig Bishop. Thanks also to Pierre Dubreuil of the Division de Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN) for granting us permission to use the RPN ensemble and to Peter Houtekamer and Louis Lefaivre for making it happen. The development of the ideas in this paper was assisted and inspired by conversations with Tim DelSole, Martin Ehrendorfer, Kerry Emanuel, Peter Houtekamer, Eugenia Kalnay, Sharanya Majumdar, James Purser, Chris Snyder, Istvan Szunyogh, Milja Zupanski, and two anonymous referees.
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