SOI and NINO3 SST data from 1950–96 were courtesy of Don Garrett, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA. Data from 1896–1949 were courtesy of Chris Torrence, PAOS, University of Colorado. Thanks to Sue Haupt, Cécile Penland, Chris Torrence, and Peter Webster for discussions. Computations were performed at the PAOS computing facility. This work was funded by NOAA Grant DOC NA56GP0230.
Balmaseda, M. A., M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill. J. Climate,8, 2705–2715.
Battisti, D. S., and A. C. Hirst, 1989: Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere–ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J. Atmos. Sci.,46, 1687–1712.
Bjerknes, J., 1966: A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus,18, 820–829.
——, 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev.,97, 163–172.
Cane, M., and S. E. Zebiak, 1985: A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science,228, 1085–1086.
Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability. Science,269, 1699–1702.
Gardiner, C. W., 1990: Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and the Natural Sciences. 2d ed. Springer-Verlag, 442 pp.
Goldberg, D. E., 1989: Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and Machine Learning. Addison-Wesley, 412 pp.
Haupt, R. L., and S. E. Haupt, 1998: Practical Genetic Algorithms. John Wiley and Sons, 192 pp.
Huang, J.-P., and G. R. North, 1996: Cyclic spectral analysis of fluctuations in a GCM simulation. J. Atmos. Sci.,53, 370–379.
Kvålseth, T. O., 1985: Cautionary note about R2. Amer. Stat.,39, 279–285.
Moré, J. J., B. S. Garbow, and K. E. Hillstrom, 1980: User guide for MINPACK-1. Rep. ANL-80-74, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 261 pp. [Available from Argonne National Library, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439.].
Oort, A. H., Y. H. Pan, R. W. Reynolds, and C. F. Ropelewski, 1987:Historical trend in the surface temperature over the oceans based on the COADS. Climate Dyn.,2, 29–38.
Philander, S. G., 1990: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 293 pp.
Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery, 1992: Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 994 pp.
Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 354–384.
Ryan, T. P., 1997: Modern Regression Methods. John Wiley and Sons, 515 pp.
Torrence, C., and P. Webster, 1998: The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,124, 1985–2004.
Troup, A. J., 1965: The “southern oscillation.” Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,91, 490–506.
Vallis, G. K., 1988: Conceptual models of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res.,93 (C), 13 979–13 991.
Wang, B., 1995: Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. J. Climate,8, 267–285.
——, and Y. Wang, 1996: Temporal structure of the Southern Oscillation as revealed by waveform and wavelet analysis. J. Climate,9, 1586–1598.
Webster, P. J., 1995: The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,56, 33–55.
——, and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meter. Soc.,118, 877–926.
Wright, P. B., 1979: Persistence of rainfall anomalies in the central Pacific. Nature,277, 371–374.
——, 1985: The Southern Oscillation: An ocean–atmosphere feedback system? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,66, 398–412.
Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus,46A, 512–528.
Zebiak, S., and M. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 2262–2278.