The author profited from beneficial discussions with A. Fournier, A. Hense, A. Majda, M. Newman, C. Penland, C. Perez, P. Sardeshmukh, R. Saravanan, J. Tribbia, and E. Vanden-Eijnden. In particular I wish to thank G. Branstator for numerous enlightening discussions and for his invaluable input. G. Branstator and A. Fournier helped greatly improve earlier versions of this manuscript. In addition, I thank P. Sura and an anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments. A. Mai aided in processing the GCM data. During this study, the author was supported by NCAR’s Advanced Study Program.
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