This work was supported by NASA Earth Science Program (NNG04GL65G), by NSF Climate Dynamics Program (ATM03-29531), and by the Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of the IPRC. The third author was supported by the Human Resources Development Fund at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), as well as the NSF (ATM-0094416), and the National Atmospheric and Aeronautics Administration (NAG5- 11033). The research at JPL, California Institute of Technology was performed under contracts with the NASA. Comments from two anonymous reviewers greatly help improve the manuscript.
Arakawa, O., , and A. Kitoh, 2004: Comparison of local precipitation-SST relationship between the observation and a reanalysis dataset. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 .L12206, doi:10.1029/2004GL020283.
Chen, T-C., , and J. C. Alpert, 1990: Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118 , 2607–2623.
Dumenil, L., , and E. Todini, 1992: A rainfall-runoff scheme for use in the Hamburg climate model. Advances in Theoretical Hydrology, A Tribute to James Dooge, European Geophysical Society Series on Hydrological Sciences, Vol. 1, Elsevier Press, 129–157.
Flatau, M., , P. Flatau, , P. Phoebus, , and P. Niller, 1997: The feedback between equatorial convection and local radiative and evaporative processes: The implications for intraseasonal oscillations. J. Atmos. Sci., 54 , 2373–2386.
Fu, X., , and B. Wang, 2001: A coupled modeling study of the seasonal cycle of the Pacific cold tongue. Part I: Simulation and sensitivity experiments. J. Climate, 14 , 765–779.
Fu, X., , and B. Wang, 2004a: Differences of boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in an atmosphere–ocean coupled model and an atmosphere-only model. J. Climate, 17 , 1263–1271.
Fu, X., , and B. Wang, 2004b: The boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in a hybrid coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 2628–2649.
Fu, X., , B. Wang, , T. Li, , and J. P. McCreary, 2003: Coupling between northward-propagating, intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., 60 , 1733–1753.
Fu, X., , B. Wang, , and L. Tao, 2006: Satellite data reveal the 3-D moisture structure of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation and its coupling with underlying ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 .L03705, doi:10.1029/2005GL025074.
Goswami, B. N., , and R. S. Ajayamohan, 2001: Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 14 , 1180–1198.
Goswami, B. N., , and P. K. Xavier, 2003: Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .1966, doi:10.1029/2003GL017810.
Goswami, B. N., , R. S. Ajayamohan, , P. K. Xavier, , and D. Sengupta, 2003: Clustering of low pressure systems during the Indian summer monsoon by intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .1431, doi:10.1029/2002GL016734.
Hendon, H. H., 2000: Impact of air–sea coupling on the Madden–Julian oscillation in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 3939–3952.
Hendon, H. H., , B. Liebmann, , M. Newman, , J. D. Glick, , and J. E. Schemm, 2000: Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 69–86.
Hollingsworth, A., , K. Arpe, , M. Tiedtke, , M. Capaldo, , and H. Savijarvi, 1980: The performance of a medium-range forecast model in winter—Impact of physical parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108 , 1736–1773.
Inness, P. M., , and J. M. Slingo, 2003: Simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation in a coupled general circulation model. Part I: Comparison with observations and an atmosphere-only GCM. J. Climate, 16 , 345–364.
Jiang, X., , T. Li, , and B. Wang, 2004: Structures and mechanisms of the northward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations. J. Climate, 17 , 1022–1039.
Jones, C., , D. E. Waliser, , J-K. E. Schemm, , and W. K. M. Lau, 2000: Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts. Climate Dyn., 16 , 273–289.
Jones, C., , D. E. Waliser, , K. M. Lau, , and W. Stern, 2004: Global occurrences of extreme precipitation events and the Madden–Julian oscillation: Observations and predictability. J. Climate, 17 , 4575–4589.
Kemball-Cook, S., , B. Wang, , and X. Fu, 2002: Simulation of the ISO in the ECHAM4 model: The impact of coupling with an ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 59 , 1433–1453.
Krishnamurti, T. N., , M. Subramaniam, , D. K. Oosterhof, , and G. Daughenbaugh, 1990: Predictability of low-frequency modes. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 44 , 63–83.
Krishnamurti, T. N., , M. Subramaniam, , G. Daughenbaugh, , D. Oosterhof, , and J. H. Xue, 1992: One-month forecasts of wet and dry spells of the monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120 , 1191–1223.
Lau, K. H., , and N. C. Lau, 1990: Observed structure and propagation characteristics of tropical summertime synoptic scale disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118 , 1888–1913.
Lau, K. M., , and P. H. Chan, 1986: Aspects of the 40–50-day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 1354–1367.
Lau, K. M., , and F. C. Chang, 1992: Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model. J. Climate, 5 , 1365–1378.
Lau, K. M., , and C-H. Sui, 1997: Mechanisms of short-term sea surface temperature regulation: Observations during TOGA COARE. J. Climate, 10 , 465–472.
Liess, S., , D. E. Waliser, , and S. D. Schubert, 2005: Predictability studies of the intraseasonal oscillation in ECHAM5 GCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 62 , 3320–3336.
Lo, F., , and H. H. Hendon, 2000: Empirical extended-range prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 2528–2543.
Matthews, A. J., 2004: Atmospheric response to observed intraseasonal tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 .L14107, doi:10.1029/2004GL020474.
Miyakoda, K., , G. D. Hembree, , R. F. Strickler, , and I. Shulman, 1972: Cumulative results of extended forecast experiment. I. Model performance for winter cases. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100 , 836–855.
McCreary, J. P., , and Z. J. Yu, 1992: Equatorial dynamics in a 2.5-layer model. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 29, Pergamon. 61–132.
Nordeng, T. E., 1994: Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. ECMWF Research Dept. Tech. Memo. 206, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, 41 pp.
Reichler, T., , and J. O. Roads, 2005: Long-range predictability in the tropics. Part II: 30–60-day variability. J. Climate, 18 , 634–650.
Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Tech. Rep., Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology, Rep. 218, 90 pp.
Sengupta, D., , and M. Ravichandran, 2001: Oscillations of Bay of Bengal sea surface temperature during the 1998 summer monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 2033–2036.
Seo, K-H., , J-K. Schemm, , and C. Jones, 2005: Forecast skill of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts. Climate Dyn., 25 , 265–284.
Shinoda, T., , H. H. Hendon, , and J. Glick, 1998: Intraseasonal variability of surface fluxes and sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans. J. Climate, 11 , 1685–1702.
Stephens, G. L., , P. J. Webster, , R. H. Johnson, , R. Engelen, , and T. L’Ecuyer, 2004: Observational evidence for the mutual regulation of the tropical hydrological cycle and tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Climate, 17 , 2213–2224.
Tam, C. Y., , and T. Li, 2006: The origin and dispersion characteristics of the observed summertime synoptic-scale waves over the western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134 , 1630–1646.
Taylor, K. E., , D. Williamson, , and F. Zwiers, 2000: The sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary condition for AMIP II simulations. PCMDI Rep. 60, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 25 pp.
Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117 , 1779–1800.
Waliser, D. E., , K. M. Lau, , and J. H. Kim, 1999a: A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 12 , 1918–1939.
Waliser, D. E., , K. M. Lau, , and J. H. Kim, 1999b: The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden–Julian oscillation: A model perturbation experiment. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 333–358.
Waliser, D. E., and Coauthors, 2003a: AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., 21 , 423–446.
Waliser, D. E., , W. Stern, , S. Schubert, , and K. M. Lau, 2003b: Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129 , 2897–2925.
Waliser, D. E., , K. M. Lau, , W. Stern, , and C. Jones, 2003c: Potential predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84 , 33–50.
Wang, B., , and H. Rui, 1990: Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975–1985. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 44 , 43–61.
Wang, B., , and X. Xie, 1998: Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system. Part I: The role of air–sea interaction in maintaining Madden–Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 11 , 2116–2135.
Webster, P. J., , and C. Hoyos, 2004: Forecasting monsoon rainfall and river discharge variability on 15–30-day time scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85 , 1745–1765.
Webster, P. J., , V. O. Magana, , T. N. Palmer, , J. Shukla, , R. A. Tomas, , M. Yanai, , and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , (C7) (TOGA special issue). 14451–14510.
Yasunari, T., 1980: A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 58 , 225–229.
Zheng, Y., , D. E. Waliser, , W. F. Stern, , and C. Jones, 2004: The role of coupled sea surface temperatures in the simulation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 17 , 4109–4134.