The authors have benefited from discussions with Kerry Emanuel, Chris Snyder, John Nielsen-Gammon, Scott Braun, Tim Dunkerton, Shuyi Chen, Russ Elsberry, Kevin Tory, and Mike Montgomery. Thanks are also due to Yonghui Weng and Zhiyong Meng for help on the ensemble simulations. The authors have also benefited greatly from review comments by Braun and an anonymous reviewer. This research is sponsored by the U.S. Office of Naval Research under Young Investigator Program Grant N000140410471.
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