We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for the comments on an earlier version of the present paper. This work was supported by NSF Grant ATM-0852459.
Berner, J., 2003: Detection and Stochastic Modeling of Nonlinear Signatures in the Geopotential Height Field of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Asgard-Verlag, 156 pp.
Berner, J., 2005: Linking nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity of planetary wave behavior by the Fokker–Planck equation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2098–2117.
Branstator, G., , and J. Berner, 2005: Linear and nonlinear signatures in the planetary wave dynamics of an AGCM: Phase space tendencies. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1792–1811.
D’Andrea, F., 2002: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem. II: Stationarity and stability of large-scale equilibria. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1059–1073.
D’Andrea, F., , and R. Vautard, 2001: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem. I: A simplified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1357–1374.
Gardiner, C. W., 1985: Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry, and the Natural Sciences. 2nd ed. Springer, 442 pp.
Ghil, M., , and A. W. Robertson, 2002: “Waves” vs. “particles” in the atmosphere’s phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99 (Suppl. 1), 2493–2500.
Kondrashov, D., , K. Ide, , and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred transition paths in a three-level quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 568–587.
Kondrashov, D., , S. Kravtsov, , and M. Ghil, 2006: Empirical mode reduction in a model of extratropical low-frequency variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1859–1877.
Kondrashov, D., , S. Kravtsov, , and M. Ghil, 2010: Signatures of nonlinear dynamics in an idealized atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 3–12.
Kravtsov, S., , J. E. Ten Hoeve, , S. B. Feldstein, , S. Lee, , and S.-W. Son, 2009: The relationship between statistically linear and nonlinear feedbacks and zonal-mean flow variability in an idealized climate model. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 353–372.
Legras, B., , and M. Ghil, 1985: Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 433–471.
Lorenz, D. J., , and D. L. Hartmann, 2003: Eddy–zonal flow feedback in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 16, 1212–1227.
Marshall, J., , and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of atmospheric weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1792–1818.
Penland, C., , and M. Ghil, 1993: Forecasting Northern Hemisphere 700-mb geopotential height anomalies using empirical normal modes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2355–2372.
Penland, C., , and L. Matrosova, 1994: A balance condition for stochastic numerical models with application to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 7, 1352–1372.
Peters, J. M., , S. K. Kravtsov, , and N. T. Schwartz, 2012: Predictability associated with nonlinear regimes in an atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 1137–1154.
Rennert, K. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 2009: Cross-frequency coupling, skewness, and blocking in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. J. Climate, 22, 5650–5666.
Selten, F. M., , and G. Branstator, 2004: Preferred regime transition routes and evidence for an unstable periodic orbit in a baroclinic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2267–2282.
Sura, P., , and J. Barsugli, 2002: A note on estimating drift and diffusion parameters from time series. Phys. Lett., 305A, 304–311.
Sura, P., , M. Newman, , C. Penland, , and P. Sardeshmukh, 2005: Multiplicative noise and non-Gaussianity: A paradigm for atmospheric regimes? J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1391–1409.