FORECASTING BY STATISTICAL INFERENCES

Irving I. Gringorten Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories

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Abstract

In recognition of the fact that a weather forecast is rarely 100 per cent accurate, this paper considers the value of figures for the probability of a meteorological event in meeting specified operational requirements. An objective method is presented for deciding between alternative meteorological predictors. It is emphasized that there is no essential qualitative difference between this technique and the methods normally applied in a more subjective manner.

Abstract

In recognition of the fact that a weather forecast is rarely 100 per cent accurate, this paper considers the value of figures for the probability of a meteorological event in meeting specified operational requirements. An objective method is presented for deciding between alternative meteorological predictors. It is emphasized that there is no essential qualitative difference between this technique and the methods normally applied in a more subjective manner.

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