• Baggett, C., and S. Lee, 2015: Arctic warming induced by tropically forced tapping of available potential energy and the role of the planetary-scale waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 15621568, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0334.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bao, J., B. Stevens, L. Kluft, and D. Jiménez‐de‐la‐Cuesta, 2021: Changes in the tropical lapse rate due to entrainment and their impact on climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL094969, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094969.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnes, E. A., and L. M. Polvani, 2015: CMIP5 projections of Arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship. J. Climate, 28, 52545271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00589.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barpanda, P., and T. Shaw, 2017: Using the moist static energy budget to understand storm-track shifts across a range of time scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 24272446, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0022.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Butler, A. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and R. Heikes, 2010: The steady-state atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J. Climate, 23, 34743496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3228.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cattiaux, J., and C. Cassou, 2013: Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime northern annular mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 36823687, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50643.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chemke, R., and L. M. Polvani, 2019: Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses. Nat. Geosci., 12, 528532, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0383-x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chemke, R., and L. M. Polvani, 2020: Linking midlatitudes eddy heat flux trends and polar amplification. npj Climate Atmos. Sci., 3, 8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0111-7.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, E.-S., A. Timmermann, B. J. Soden, K.-J. Ha, L. Shi, and V. O. John, 2019: Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections. Nat. Climate Change, 9, 405412, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Clark, J. P., and S. Lee, 2019: The role of the tropically excited Arctic warming mechanism on the warm Arctic cold continent surface air temperature trend pattern. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 84908499, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082714.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Clark, J. P., and S. B. Feldstein, 2020: What drives the North Atlantic Oscillation’s temperature anomaly pattern? Part II: A decomposition of the surface downward longwave radiation anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 199216, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0028.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J., and Coauthors, 2020: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nat. Climate Change, 10, 2029, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Franchito, S. H., and V. B. Rao, 2003: The correlation between temperature gradient and eddy heat flux in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81, 163168, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.81.163.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fu, Q., S. Manabe, and C. M. Johanson, 2011: On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048101.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gong, T., S. B. Feldstein, and S. Lee, 2020: Rossby wave propagation from the Arctic into the midlatitudes: Does it arise from in situ latent heating or a trans-Arctic wave train? J. Climate, 33, 36193633, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0780.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goss, M., S. B. Feldstein, and S. Lee, 2016: Stationary wave interference and its relation to tropical convection and Arctic warming. J. Climate, 29, 13691389, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0267.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Graversen, R. G., and M. Burtu, 2016: Arctic amplification enhanced by latent energy transport of atmospheric planetary waves. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 20462054, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2802.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Green, J. S. A., 1970: Transfer properties of the large-scale eddies and the general circulation of the atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 96, 157185, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709640802.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, and T. J. Woollings, 2014: Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dyn., 43, 11711182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., and A. Y. Hou, 1980: Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a nearly inviscid atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 515533, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0515:NASCIA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., and E. O’Brien, 1992: Quasigeostrophic turbulence in a three-layer model: Effects of vertical structure in the mean shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 18611870, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<1861:QTIATL>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., S. W. Lyons, and S. Nigam, 1989: Transients and the extratropical response to El Niño. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 163174, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0163:TATERT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., M. Ting, and H. Wang, 2002: Northern winter stationary waves: Theory and modeling. J. Climate, 15, 21252144, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2125:NWSWTA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hersbach, H., and Coauthors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 19992049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.

  • Hoskins, B., and D. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 11791196, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huffman, G. J., and Coauthors, 2001: Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations. J. Hydrometeor., 2, 3650, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0036:GPAODD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johnson, N. C., L. Krishnamurthy, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Xiang, G. A. Vecchi, S. B. Kapnick, and S. Pascale, 2020: The impact of sea surface temperature biases on North American precipitation in a high-resolution climate model. J. Climate, 33, 24272447, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0417.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaspi, Y., and T. Schneider, 2013: The role of stationary eddies in shaping midlatitude storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 25962613, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-082.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kobayashi, S., and Coauthors, 2015: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 548, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kushner, P. J., and I. M. Held, 1998: A test, using atmospheric data, of a method for estimating oceanic eddy diffusivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 42134216, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900142.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, S., and C. Yoo, 2014: On the causal relationship between poleward heat flux and the equator-to-pole temperature gradient: A cautionary tale. J. Climate, 27, 65196525, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00236.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, S., T. Gong, N. Johnson, S. B. Feldstein, and D. Pollard, 2011: On the possible link between tropical convection and the Northern Hemisphere Arctic surface air temperature change between 1958 and 2001. J. Climate, 24, 43504367, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4003.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lorenz, E. N., 1979: Forced and free variations of weather and climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 13671376, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1367:FAFVOW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lunkeit, F., K. Fraedrich, and S. E. Bauer, 1998: Storm tracks in a warmer climate: Sensitivity studies with a simplified global circulation model. Climate Dyn., 14, 813826, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050257.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702708, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0702:DOADOI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mann, H., 1945: Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187.

  • McKitrick, R., and J. Christy, 2020: Pervasive warming bias in CMIP6 tropospheric layers. Earth Space Sci., 7, e2020EA001281, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001281.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Merlis, T. M., and M. Henry, 2018: Simple estimates of polar amplification in moist diffusive energy balance models. J. Climate, 31, 58115824, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0578.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mitchell, D. M., P. W. Thorne, P. A. Stott, and L. J. Gray, 2013: Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 28012806, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50465.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • North, G. R., 1975: Theory of energy-balance climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 20332043, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<2033:TOEBCM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • O’Gorman, P. A., 2010: Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19 17619 180, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Park, M., and S. Lee, 2019: Relationship between tropical and extratropical diabatic heating and their impact on stationary–transient wave interference. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 26172633, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0371.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Park, M., and S. Lee, 2020: A mechanism for the midwinter minimum in North Pacific storm‐track intensity from a global perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086052, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086052.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Park, M., and S. Lee, 2021: The role of planetary-scale eddies on the recent isentropic slope trend during boreal winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 28792894, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0348.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pavan, V., 1996: Sensitivity of a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic β-channel to the vertical structure of the equilibrium meridional temperature gradient. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 5572, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712252904.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Santer, B. D., and Coauthors, 2017: Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. J. Climate, 30, 373392, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0333.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., T. J. Bracegirdle, and I. Simmonds, 2018: Polar climate change as manifest in atmospheric circulation. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 4, 383395, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., M. Cane, N. Henderson, D.-E. Lee, R. Abernathey, and H. Zhang, 2019: Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases. Nat. Climate Change, 9, 517522, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shaw, T. A., and R. J. Graham, 2020: Hydrological cycle changes explain weak snowball Earth storm track despite increased surface baroclinicity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089866, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089866.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shaw, T. A., and Coauthors, 2016: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change. Nat. Geosci., 9, 656664, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shaw, T. A., P. Barpanda, and A. Donohoe, 2018: A moist static energy framework for zonal-mean storm-track intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 19791994, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0183.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simmons, A. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 1978: The life cycles of some nonlinear baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 414432, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<0414:TLCOSN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Suárez-Gutiérrez, L., C. Li, P. W. Thorne, and J. Marotzke, 2017: Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 57095719, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073798.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thompson, D. W. J., and T. Birner, 2012: On the linkages between the tropospheric isentropic slope and eddy fluxes of heat during Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 18111823, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0187.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thorncroft, C. D., B. J. Hoskins, and M. E. McIntyre, 1993: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 1755, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711950903.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2003: Covariability of components of poleward atmospheric energy transports on seasonal and interannual timescales. J. Climate, 16, 36913705, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3691:COCOPA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vallis, G. K., P. Zurita-Gotor, C. Cairns, and J. Kidston, 2015: Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 14791501, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2456.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 19171932, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:Aarmmi>2.0.Co;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilks, D. S., 2011: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 3rd ed. Elsevier, 676 pp.

  • Yoo, C., S. Lee, and S. B. Feldstein, 2012: Arctic response to an MJO-like tropical heating in an idealized GCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 23792393, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0261.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yuval, J., and Y. Kaspi, 2016: Eddy activity sensitivity to changes in the vertical structure of baroclinicity. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 17091726, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0128.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yuval, J., and Y. Kaspi, 2020: Eddy activity response to global warming–like temperature changes. J. Climate, 33, 13811404, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0190.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 157 155 0
Full Text Views 54 52 4
PDF Downloads 61 58 5

Which Is the More Effective Driver of the Poleward Eddy Heat Flux Variability: Zonal Gradient of Tropical Convective Heating or Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradient?

View More View Less
  • 1 aDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
Restricted access

Abstract

Future projections of the poleward eddy heat flux by the atmosphere are often regarded as being uncertain because of the competing effect between surface and upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradients. Previous idealized modeling studies showed that eddy heat flux response is more sensitive to the variability of lower-tropospheric temperature gradient. However, observational evidence is lacking. In this study, observational data analyses are performed to examine the relationships between eddy heat fluxes and temperature gradients during boreal winter by constructing daily indices. On the intraseasonal time scale, the surface temperature gradient is found to be more effective at regulating the synoptic-scale eddy heat flux (SF) than is the upper-tropospheric temperature gradient. Enhancements in surface temperature gradient, however, are subject to an inactive planetary-scale eddy heat flux (PF). The PF in turn is dependent on the zonal gradient in tropical convective heating. Consistent with these interactions, over the past 40 winters, the zonal gradient in tropical heating and PF have been trending upward, while the surface temperature gradient and SF have been trending downward. These results indicate that for a better understanding of eddy heat fluxes, attention should be given to zonal convective heating gradients in the tropics as much as to meridional temperature gradients.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Mingyu Park, mup65@psu.edu

Abstract

Future projections of the poleward eddy heat flux by the atmosphere are often regarded as being uncertain because of the competing effect between surface and upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradients. Previous idealized modeling studies showed that eddy heat flux response is more sensitive to the variability of lower-tropospheric temperature gradient. However, observational evidence is lacking. In this study, observational data analyses are performed to examine the relationships between eddy heat fluxes and temperature gradients during boreal winter by constructing daily indices. On the intraseasonal time scale, the surface temperature gradient is found to be more effective at regulating the synoptic-scale eddy heat flux (SF) than is the upper-tropospheric temperature gradient. Enhancements in surface temperature gradient, however, are subject to an inactive planetary-scale eddy heat flux (PF). The PF in turn is dependent on the zonal gradient in tropical convective heating. Consistent with these interactions, over the past 40 winters, the zonal gradient in tropical heating and PF have been trending upward, while the surface temperature gradient and SF have been trending downward. These results indicate that for a better understanding of eddy heat fluxes, attention should be given to zonal convective heating gradients in the tropics as much as to meridional temperature gradients.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Mingyu Park, mup65@psu.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 2.52 MB)
Save