1. Introduction
Analytical methods and models have been widely used to simplify and explain complex atmospheric equations. Even in recent years, there have been a number of studies that have developed and reported on simple expressions that can be derived from the equations of motion (e.g., Du and Rotunno 2014; Davies-Jones 2022) as well as from the kinetic equation for the growth of precipitation particles (e.g., Garrett 2019; Wu and McFarquhar 2018). The appeal of such simplified, analytic formulas stems from multiple factors. For example, analytical models can provide efficient results compared to computationally expensive numerical weather prediction models and provide benchmark formulas to validate these numerical models. Simple analytic models and theoretical frameworks can also be invaluable for providing insight and understanding of physical phenomena itself through explicit mathematical relationships among various variables.
After nearly half a century of research, there are still a number of unanswered questions regarding how these steady-state models can potentially aid in understanding precipitation processes as well as their practical utility. Previous studies regarding the development and use of snow growth models (Lo and Passarelli 1982; Mitchell 1988; Mitchell et al. 2006) have noted that plots of logN0 versus logΛ are roughly linear during regions of pronounced aggregation from in situ measurements. These studies have qualitatively described this behavior yet none of these studies have shown quantitatively why this behavior manifests. Furthermore, there is still much work to be done regarding the use of such steady-state models. Perhaps the most promising utility of such simple models is the potential to use radar measurements to project microphysical retrievals into regions that are below what radars are able to remotely sense. For example, the snow growth model of Mitchell et al. (2006) was able to show good agreement between measured snow precipitation rates from surface gauges and from a snow growth model that was initialized from radar reflectivity aloft.
This study simplifies the snow growth model approach and its associated equations as much as possible such that its use is more accessible to a wider audience. Such a simplification also promotes a better physical understanding of such steady-state conditions since the solutions we derive are in the form of simple exponential and generalized power-law functions. As we will show, using the number-, mass-, and reflectivity-related moments in Eq. (4) allows for Nt and Dm (which are directly related to Λ and N0) to be solved for a number of various assumptions and approximations. Moreover, these solutions are functions of height z and depend only upon four factors: the combined collision–coalescence efficiency
2. The general steady-state moment equation
Equations used throughout this study. Units are as follows: z, meters; Nt,top, per cubic meter; Dm,top, millimeters.
Simplified equations that can be derived from Table 1 for snow: μ = 0, βm = 2.0, and bυ = 0.2; and rain: μ = 0, βm = 3.0, and bυ = 0.65. Units are as follows: Nt, per liter; z, kilometers.
Parameters and constants used in this study.
3. Reflectivity-based solutions
a. Collision–coalescence only
b. Vapor deposition only
4. General height solution for vapor deposition and collision–coalescence
Figure 3 shows the behavior of Eqs. (41) and (44) for different values of βm, μ, and bυ. As in Figs. 1 and 2, C(μ, bυ, βm) is largest when βm = 3 and smallest when βm = 2. C(μ, bυ, 3) varies from approximately 0.71 to 4.16 when βm = 2 and from approximately 2.44 to 6.0 when βm = 3. This range is even smaller if μ = 0 where C(μ, bυ, 2) varies between approximately 1.62 and 2.85 and C(μ, bυ, 3) varies between approximately 4.22 and 5.28. In general, for a given βm value, C(μ, bυ, βm) is approximately constant for linear changes in μ and bυ. For lower (more negative) values of μ, the slope of constant C(μ, bυ, βm) values becomes steeper.
For easy reference, Table 1 presents all derived equations in this paper, Table 2 presents all simplified versions of the derived equations, and Table 3 presents all associated constants and parameters.
5. Comparison with observations
a. Lagrangian spiral descent aircraft profiles
Two spiral descent aircraft legs from the 26 July 2002 CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign case were used to evaluate the Eq. (43) solutions for snow particles. This particular dataset was used by Field et al. (2006) alongside a spectral bin microphysical model to study the effects of self-collection of ice particles and more details about the data can be found in that study. For the current study, we only use data from the second and third Lagrangian spiral descents, which were within stratiform conditions.
Figure 4 displays scatterplots of log(Nt) versus log(Dm) from the Lagrangian spiral descent measurements for both spirals 2 and 3. Each set of measurements is fitted with a line where the slope theoretically corresponds to −C(μ, bυ, βm) as suggested by Eq. (40). While there is an inconsistency in that the measured Nt is calculated from a truncated size range (i.e., D = 0.1 to 27 mm), both spirals do show a roughly linear relationship between logNt and logDm. This linear relationship is most apparent for spiral 2 where r2 = 0.9244 whereas r2 = 0.6558 for spiral 3.
To evaluate Nt and Dm profiles predicted by Eq. (43), the C(μ, bυ, βm) values from Fig. 4 were used as constraints for choosing μ, bυ, and βm values for the steady-state model profiles shown in Fig. 5. To do this, 3D surfaces of μ, bυ, and βm were constructed for each C(μ, bυ, βm) value shown in Fig. 4. Five hundred random points on these surfaces were then used as the chosen parameters for the steady-state model for each spiral. For each of these 500 points,
Figure 5 shows 50 of the 500 Nt(z) and Dm profiles with the lowest errors compared to the mean observed profiles. Figure 5 also shows boxplots of the associated steady-state model parameters for all 50 profiles. Both the profiles and boxplots indicate an overall higher sensitivity of these solutions for spiral 2 than for spiral 3. The reason for this is due to the higher values of Nt during spiral 2. This is because the aggregation process scales as
b. Parsivel disdrometer measurements with quasi-vertical polarimetric radar profiles
The Stony Brook University KASPR research radar was used to generate quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs; Ryzhkov et al. 2016) for the 1 February 2021 snowstorm. QVPs are azimuthally averaged radar measurements that are plotted in a time–height format. KASPR QVPs were calculated for reflectivity Z and specific differential phase Kdp and the simplified steady-state height profiles from Table 2 were calculated using the Z/Kdp Dunnavan et al. (2022, their Table 1) retrievals of Dm,top and Nt,top assuming α = 0.2 g cm−3 mm, σ = 20°, and
Figure 6 surface measurements of Nt and Dm show a slow, steady increase in the presence of snow throughout the day from 0200 to 1400 UTC. This can be best seen in Nt which slowly increases during this period. Snowfall rapidly increases from 1400 to 1800 UTC which can be seen from all four time series plots. The simplified, exponential steady-state model from Table 2 based on Eq. (48) with
6. Discussion and conclusions
The equations derived in this paper as shown in Tables 1–3 can be used to easily estimate PSD and bulk parameters such as precipitation rates in regions where radar retrievals are either difficult to perform due to instrumental uncertainties or in regions where radar variables are unavailable. One such application example would be the use of the height-based solutions of Nt(z) and Dm(z) for regions below the lowest radar tilt available from WSR-88Ds where there are no available data to infer precipitation properties. Figure 6 shows that Nt and Dm at the surface can be estimated from QVP profiles initialized aloft and, with appropriate parameters, can produce representative profiles of each microphysical variable. Remarkably, the simplified, exponential version of Eq. (43) in Table 2 is capable of accurately capturing the rapid onset of surface snowfall and the associated increases in microphysical variables. This rapid increase in surface variables is not captured by the lowest level radar retrievals due to the muted and variable Kdp signature.
The equations shown in Table 1 and throughout this paper also explain common observations of the relationship between Nt and Dm from previous studies. For example, Figs. 5 and 7 from Lo and Passarelli (1982) show that N0/Λ phase-space trajectories of snow from Lagrangian spiral data during the aggregation stage are quasi linear in log–log space. Lo and Passarelli (1982) explain in their study that the quasi-linear behavior (in log–log space) of N0 and Λ indicate constant moments Mr of an exponential distribution (i.e., μ = 0) if the slope equals r + 1. However, Lo and Passarelli (1982) do not explain the quantitative or theoretical reasons as to why aggregation produces the quasi-linear behavior. Since Nt = N0Λ−(μ+1) and Dm = (μ + 4)/Λ for gamma PSDs, the steady-state model [Eq. (42)] phase space for Nt and Dm would be exactly linear in log–log space where −C(μ, bυ, βm) corresponds to the observed slope (Fig. 4). As a result, it may be possible to determine approximate steady-state conditions from Lagrangian spiral descent data through linear fits of logNt and logDm or logN0 and logΛ as indicated in plots like Fig. 4. These linear fits could then be used to catalog the associated C(μ, bυ, βm) values and gamma distribution fits to the in situ PSDs can be used to constrain μ. Indeed, as suggested by the scatterplot measurements of logDm versus logNt, observations do indicate a linear relationship with a constant slope. This is most apparent for spiral 2 where data points are close to the linear fit (r2 = 0.9244) but also for spiral 3, albeit with a worse overall fit (r2 = 0.6558).
While the equations derived in this work are promising, they rely upon a number of important assumptions and limitations. First, it is assumed that
Acknowledgments.
The authors thank Mariko Oue (Stony Brook University) for the KASPR and Parsivel disdrometer data used in this study and Petar Bukovčić for his comments and suggestions. Funding was provided by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA–University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement NA21OAR4320204, U.S. Department of Commerce, and by National Science Foundation Grant AGS-1841246.
Data availability statement.
Aircraft data from the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign are available from https://data.eol.ucar.edu/project/127. The KASPR and Parsivel disdrometer data are not publicly available and must be requested directly from the Stony Brook University Radar Science Group.
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