1. Introduction
Reliable predictions of storm intensity are vital for improving human safety. These predictions require a robust account of the major physical factors that determine the maximum wind speed that can be developed by the storm. Tropical cyclones do not just generate kinetic energy; they also lift water that subsequently precipitates. This lifting can diminish the power available for winds. Nonetheless, available estimates of this impact are inconsistent (Makarieva et al. 2020; Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi 2020).
Table 1 summarizes the situation. In steady-state large-scale circulations, the water lifting power WP (W m−2) is within 20%–50% of total wind power. By analogy to hydropower, this lifting power is estimated from the known precipitation rate P and precipitation pathlength HP (the mean height from which the hydrometeors are falling) (Gorshkov 1982, 1995; Pauluis et al. 2000; Pauluis and Dias 2012; Makarieva et al. 2013, 2017c).
Relative estimates of the contribution of water lifting to atmospheric energetics, by different authors, in chronological order.
For tropical cyclones, Emanuel (1988) estimated that water lifting reduces the central pressure drop in intense storms by about 5% and 20% for pseudoadiabatic and reversible ascent, respectively, and concluded that “the importance of water loading in limiting the hurricane intensity in the reversible case” is “very substantial.” Without referring to this prior work, Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) recently agreed with Makarieva et al. (2020) that in real cyclones the reduction of the squared maximum velocity due to water lifting should not exceed 10%.
In contrast, Sabuwala et al. (2015)—quoted by Emanuel (2018) but neglected by Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) and by Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020)—used satellite-derived precipitation data and Emanuel’s potential intensity framework to report an approximately 50% reduction in the squared maximum velocity due to water lifting for pseudoadiabatic ascent. Unlike Sabuwala et al. (2015), who did not quote Emanuel (1988), Wang and Lin (2020) used the approach of Emanuel (1988) to account for the total water mixing ratio qt in the pseudoadiabatic model of Emanuel and Rotunno (2011) and found that this reduces air velocity at the radius of maximum wind in a hurricane with reversible adiabats by about 10% (or squared velocity by 20%). At the same time, Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) indicated that the impact of the water lifting on storm intensity depends on the integral of dqt/dt over a closed contour. For a reversible cycle, which conserves the total water content, this integral is exactly zero (Table 1).
The preceding issues raise several questions. First, is the impact of water lifting on storm intensity large or small, and if it is small, why is this different from the power budget of larger-scale circulations? Second, what is the reason for the high observation-derived estimates of Sabuwala et al. (2015)? Third, why is the impact of the water lifting maximized in reversible compared with pseudoadiabatic hurricanes?
Assessing the influence of water lifting on a storm’s steady-state intensity requires a consideration of the storm’s thermodynamic cycle. The original derivation of a storm’s maximum velocity by Emanuel (1986) was based on a scaling relation between velocity and temperature along a surface of constant moist saturated entropy and angular momentum [Emanuel 1986, his Eq. (13); Emanuel and Rotunno 2011, their Eq. (11)]. The derivation assumed the free troposphere to be in gradient-wind balance. Makarieva et al. [2018, their Fig. 1 and Eqs. (p5) and (p6)] showed that this assumption can be relaxed in the assessment of storm-integrated energy fluxes. Kerry Emanuel suggested1 that Makarieva et al.’s (2018) approach could be used locally to describe an infinitely narrow cycle in the vicinity of maximum wind. Without referring to Makarieva et al. (2018), Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) applied this suggestion but, as noted by Montgomery and Smith (2020) and Makarieva et al. (2020), their derivations were based on an incorrect configuration of air streamlines.
Here we consider an infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle in the vicinity of maximum wind that comprises two streamlines connecting the top of the boundary layer to some arbitrary level in the free troposphere (Fig. 1). Our analysis assumes the atmosphere to be inviscid above the boundary layer, but does not require the gradient-wind balance at the radius of maximum wind. We show that the expression for work of this cycle is equivalent to the scaling relation in Emanuel’s (1986) original derivation (section 2). The new, more general formulation of Emanuel’s maximum potential intensity (E-PI) framework is useful in the following three aspects.
Air streamlines (solid and dotted black arrows) and the infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle (thick pink lines) considered in the text (cf. Fig. 1b of Makarieva et al. 2020). The z and r axes correspond to the altitude above the sea level and the distance from hurricane center, respectively; rb′ = rB′, rc = rC′. Points B and B′ are infinitely close and chosen in the vicinity of maximum wind. The atmosphere is inviscid for z > zb = zB′.
Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 80, 8; 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0172.1
First, by allowing an explicit evaluation of the water lifting term that we perform in section 3, it responds to the above three questions concerning the contribution of water lifting to storm’s energetics.
Second, it allows the estimation of the gain of kinetic energy and angular momentum in the outflow region of the storm. Regarding this term, it has long been held that it can be large only when the outflow radius is very large (Emanuel 1986, p. 602; Emanuel 2004, p. 190). Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) noted that the outflow term “will be small if the radius at which this occurs is not too large.” However, Makarieva et al. (2019), see also Makarieva et al. (2020), showed that, conversely, this term “is significant when the outflow radius … is close to the radius of maximum wind,” i.e., when the outflow radius is small. Omitting to quote Makarieva et al. (2019) or to discuss their own previous opposing view, Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) made an effort to rederive the result of Makarieva et al. (2019) about the (in)significance of the outflow term at (large) small outflow radii. Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi’s (2020) derivations were not conclusive, however, as they were based on their Eq. (6), where the dimensions of the right-hand and left-hand sides do not match. As Makarieva et al. (2020) argued, this is due to an incorrect transition from volume to surface power fluxes. Here a consistent derivation of the outflow term is presented (section 3).
Third, the new formulation demonstrates that E-PI at the point of maximum wind corresponds to a thermodynamic cycle with zero work in the free troposphere (section 4). This strong constraint, together with the recently revealed relation between the inner core and outflow parameters in E-PI, is essential for evaluating “superintensity” (hurricane wind speeds exceeding their E-PI limits) (Makarieva and Nefiodov 2021).
2. An infinitely narrow thermodynamic cycle
a. Combining dynamics and thermodynamics
We consider two closed air streamlines, ABCDA and A′B′C′D′A′ (Fig. 1), in an axisymmetric atmosphere. Our goal is to find the relation between turbulent dissipation and heat input at the top of the boundary layer. From this relation, the maximum wind speed in E-PI can be estimated.
The connection between the dynamics and thermodynamics will be found through the common term αdp. The logic of our derivations is schematized in Fig. 2.
Key steps of deriving the relation between turbulent dissipation and heat input in the lower atmosphere. The integrals over a closed contour refer to B′bcC′B′ in Fig. 1. The heat input δQd is normalized per unit dry air mass.
Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 80, 8; 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0172.1
Applying Eqs. (1) and (2) to b′Bb results in Eq. (3) (Fig. 2), which relates work of the friction force to the sum of the horizontal differences in pressure and kinetic energy per unit moist air mass (halved squared velocity). In Eq. (3), we have additionally assumed that Vb′ = VB′. This implies two possibilities. One is that ∂V/∂z = 0, which holds by definition at the point of maximum wind and is otherwise a plausible assumption at the top of the boundary layer, where turbulent viscosity becomes negligible (Bryan and Rotunno 2009a, p. 3045). Another possibility is that points b′ and B′ (and, respectively, B and b) coincide, such that path b′b is horizontal. This second case with zb = 0 was considered by Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019, their Fig. 1), who assumed that |F| = 0 for z > 0 but |F| ≠ 0 at B′b. For a derivation of Eq. (3) from the equations of motion, see appendix A.
Our next step is to consider the inviscid atmosphere above z = zb. Applying the Bernoulli Eq. (2) with |F| = 0 to streamlines bc and B′C′ and assuming hydrostatic equilibrium at path cC′ (which is not a streamline) yields Eq. (4). It relates the horizontal change of αdp at B′b to the sum of the integral of αdp over the closed contour B′bcC′B′ and the changes of kinetic energy at B′b and in the outflow region cC′ (Figs. 1 and 2). [When these changes are zero, the first equality of Eq. (8) follows.]
At this point, we invoke the relation between the specific volumes of moist and dry air, αd = (1 + qt)α, where αd ≡ 1/ρd is the specific volume of dry air, and qt ≡ (ρυ + ρl)/ρd is the total water mixing ratio. This relation allows us to link the integrals of αdp and αddp over the closed contour B′bcC′B′; see Eq. (5).
On the other hand, the integral of αddp over a closed contour represents work done per unit dry air mass in the corresponding thermodynamic cycle. This work is converted from the heat input with the cycle’s efficiency ε in Eq. (6). By summing Eqs. (3)–(6) we combine the dynamic and thermodynamic constraints to obtain a relation between turbulent dissipation and heat input in the lower atmosphere; see Eq. (7).
In the particular case of qt = constant, one can divide the functions under the integral signs in Eq. (6) by a constant factor 1 + qt. Then we obtain the second equality in Eq. (8).
In the derivation, the hydrostatic equilibrium approximation (1) was applied at b′Bb and cC′, but it was not used at bc and B′C′. The thermodynamic processes in the cycle were not specified, so Eq. (6) can be viewed as defining the value of ε. The choice of the outflow point c along the streamline in Eqs. (4) and (7) was arbitrary. The assumption that the cycle is infinitely narrow was used in Eqs. (3) and (7), but not in Eqs. (4)–(6). Equation (8) describes an infinitely narrow cycle B′bcC′B′ with ∂V2/∂z = 0 at cC′ and ∂V2/∂r = 0 at B′b. It is also valid for a special case of B′bcC′B′ being a closed streamline with Vb = VB′ (Emanuel 1988).
b. Conventional E-PI estimate
We will now demonstrate the equivalence of the framework depicted in Fig. 2 to E-PI in two ways: in terms of turbulent dissipation and in terms of angular momentum.
The ratio of the surface fluxes of turbulent dissipation and ocean-to-atmosphere heat is proportional to squared velocity [e.g., Bister and Emanuel 1998, their Eqs. (15) and (16)]. An independent estimate of this ratio would yield a constraint on velocity. Such an estimate can be deduced from Eq. (7) with some assumptions.
Emanuel (1986) did not discriminate between α and αd (and accordingly between δQ and δQd) and thus neglected the second term on the right-hand side of Eq. (7). The third term on the right-hand side of Eq. (7), which is the change of kinetic energy in the outflow, was also neglected. That was because Emanuel (1986) assumed gradient-wind balance and, hence, V = υ, where υ is tangential velocity, and then chose point c in the outflow where V = υ = 0 and, hence, ∂V2/∂z = 0. Finally, Emanuel (1986) considered the thermodynamic cycle to be reversible, such that its efficiency ε equals Carnot efficiency εC ≡ (Tb − Tc)/Tb.
Here Ck ≃ CD are surface exchange coefficients for enthalpy and momentum, respectively;
Here we have assumed, as did Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020), that the change of velocity V over path cC′ is dominated by the change in tangential velocity υ,
Assuming, finally, that
Equation (11) relates local fluxes and is intended to estimate storm’s maximum potential intensity. However, neither Eq. (9) nor Eq. (19), from which the maximum potential intensity (11) can be derived, require ∂V2/∂r = 0 (the condition of maximum wind). This peculiarity of E-PI was noted by Montgomery and Smith (2017). Equation (9) requires ∂V2/∂z = 0 at z = zb, while Eq. (19) does not.
As we will discuss in section 4, ∂V2/∂r = 0 is an important constraint on E-PI. Here we note that, according to Eq. (8), in the E-PI framework work in the free troposphere (along the path bcC′B′) is zero. The total work of the cycle, i.e., heat input at B′b multiplied by efficiency εC, equals work on B′b. Since εC depends on the outflow temperature Tc, the specification of the thermodynamic process at B′b and the choice of Tc cannot be independent (Makarieva and Nefiodov 2021).
3. Estimating the water lifting and outflow terms
a. Reversible and pseudoadiabatic hurricanes
For the considered thermodynamic cycle B′bcC′B′ to have Carnot efficiency, it should be reversible. This requires that the air is saturated (relative humidity
Comparison of Eqs. (7) and (22) shows that the latter lacks the water lifting term. Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) similarly found that the water lifting term is comprised in the integral of the material derivative dqt/dt over a closed streamline, which is zero when qt = const (Table 1). The physical meaning of this result is that all the water that is lifted in the ascending branch of the cycle taking the energy away, goes down in the descending branch and performs work, with the net effect being zero.
However, if the storm circulation is composed of streamlines representing reversible processes (saturated isotherms and adiabats conserving qt), but qt differs between streamlines, the thermodynamic cycle B′bcC′B′ will not be reversible due to the change of qt on paths B′b and cC′ that connect different streamlines, ABCDA and A′B′C′D′A′. The efficiency of such a cycle will be lower than Carnot efficiency.
b. Extra heat input to warm precipitating water
While in finite differences Eq. (23) is valid only when B′b and cC′ are isotherms, in the limit of an infinitely narrow cycle B′bcC′B′, when B′b and cC′ degenerate each to a point, Eq. (23) becomes valid even if the temperature along B′b and cC′ is not constant (see appendix B). As one of our reviewers pointed out, this is due to the small change of temperature along these paths compared to the finite difference Tb − Tc (see also Carnot 1890, p. 59). This explains how Emanuel (1986) obtained a Carnot efficiency multiplier at the radial heat input
The last term in Eq. (23), see also Eq. (B11), corresponds to term “(c)” in Eq. (19) of Emanuel (1988), who described it as “the increase of entropy due to addition of water mass” and “the contribution of water substance to the heat capacity.” Without referring to Emanuel (1988), Pauluis (2011) rederived this term in his Eq. (B2) and interpreted it as “additional work,”3 accounting for which elevates the cycle’s efficiency above Carnot efficiency. Pauluis (2011) explained that this elevation does not violate the second law of thermodynamics because the cycle is open (moisture is added and removed), while Carnot efficiency limits the efficiencies of closed cycles only. On the other hand, according to Pauluis (2011), it is not accidental that the same cycle has Carnot efficiency when cl = 0: it is because this open cycle is thermodynamically equivalent to a closed cycle where the moisture removed at the colder isotherm is kept within the heat engine and added back to the cycle at the warmer isotherm. This interpretation raises the question of why with cl ≠ 0 such a cycle is not equivalent to a closed one.
This is resolved by recognizing an additional heat input to the cycle. Warming the water removed at the colder isotherm with temperature Tc and returned at the warmer isotherm with Tb requires extra heat
In a pseudoadiabatic hurricane, all condensed water is immediately removed (precipitates) from the air parcel: ρl = 0 and
c. Water lifting
Equation (27) summarizes the energy budget of the infinitely narrow cycle B′bcC′B′ and thus provides a relation between local variables. The first and second terms in the square brackets represent kinetic and potential energy increments associated with phase transitions. Term
The water lifting term g(zP − zb) accounts for the net energy expended to lift water. In a real cycle, where there is no precipitation in the descending branch C′B′ and qt does not change, zP equals the mean precipitation height HP in the ascending branch bc. In an infinitely narrow cycle with reversible adiabats, qt is also constant in the “descending branch,” and zP = zc = HP has the same meaning.
However, in an infinitely narrow cycle with qt varying along bc and C′B′, moisture disappears along bc. It then arises anew along C′B′ with its own nonzero gravitational energy. In this hypothetical cycle, moisture performs work as it descends along C′B′ and consumes energy when it is raised along bc. Thus, the net energy
This net energy is equal to the energy
The third term in the square brackets represents the warming of the precipitating water, Eq. (24). It is of the opposite sign to the water lifting term. For reversible adiabats, TP = Tc; with Tb = 300 K, Tb − TP ≃ 100 K and zP − zb ≃ 17 km (which corresponds to mean lapse rate Γ = (Tb − TP)/(HP − zb) ≃ 6 K km−1), the water warming term constitutes about 40% of the water lifting term. Accounting for water warming somewhat, but not fully, compensates the impact of water lifting, and the more so, the larger the difference Tb − TP. For pseudoadiabats, TP is equal to the mean temperature of precipitating water [Eq. (C6)], the difference Tb − TP is relatively small, and the impact of water warming is also smaller. With Tb = 300 K, Tb − TP = 25 K and zP − zb = 10 km (Table C1), it constitutes 30% of the water lifting term.
d. The outflow gain of kinetic energy
For (rb/rc)2 ≪ 1, this term is small and negative. In contrast, Emanuel (1986, p. 602) incorrectly concluded that the outflow term becomes significant if the outflow radius is very large.5 In their reevaluation of this issue, Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) considered the material derivative of angular momentum dM/dt along the path cC′ connecting the two streamlines. Their derivation is not valid, since cC′ is not a streamline and the air does not move along that path. Defending their configuration of streamlines, Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) noted that “the properties of D′ and D, and of A′ and A are identical” but said nothing about the properties of C′ and C (see Fig. 1 of Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel 2019).
e. Estimates of maximum velocity
We will now consider the point where ∂V/∂r = 0 [see Eq. (8) in Fig. 2]. This corresponds to the point of maximum wind if point b is chosen at the top of the boundary layer as in the derivations of Emanuel (1986) and Emanuel and Rotunno (2011) or to the point of maximum surface wind if point b is chosen at the surface as in the derivations of Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019).
Here 0 ≤ β ≤ 1 is the share of latent heat in total heat input into the air parcel along B′b.
From Eq. (36) multiplied by u, Eq. (34), and Eq. (10) we obtain the same expression, but without
For our present purpose of estimating the role of the water lifting and the outflow, this does not matter, since the values of K1 and
As for the outflow term K2, since rb < rc, the factor in square brackets in Eq. (33) is confined between −frb/(2υb) < 0 and unity. For characteristic values of rb = 30 km, υb = 60 m s−1, φ = 15°, and f ≃ 3.77 × 10−5 s−1 we have frb/(2υb) ≃ 10−2. With
On the other hand, if the outflow radius is relatively small, K2 is positive and elevates rather than lowers the maximum velocity estimate. This may happen for many storms with
Compared to (37), the water lifting term gHP/Lυ ∼ K1 in Eq. (39) is multiplied by a large factor PLυ/J ≫ 1 reflecting the ratio of local precipitation to local heat input. For typical Bowen ratios in hurricanes B ≡ JS/JL ≃ 1/3 (e.g., Jaimes et al. 2015) we have J = (1 + B)JL = (1 + B)ELυ and PLυ/J = (P/E)/(1 + B), where JS, JL, and E are the local fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and evaporation, respectively. Ratio P/E between local precipitation and evaporation in the region of maximum winds is variable but on average on the order of 10 (see Makarieva et al. 2017a, their Table 1 and Figs. 2 and 3). For HP ∼ 5 km and εC ∼ 0.3, Sabuwala et al.’s (2015) correction to
4. The physical meaning of E-PI at the point of maximum wind
Equation (34) shows that, at the point of maximum wind, the local volume-specific rate (W m−3) of turbulent dissipation, −ρF ⋅ V, is equal to the local volume-specific rate of sensible heat input into an isothermally and horizontally expanding air parcel, −(∂p/∂r)u. Thus, if all this turbulent dissipative power transforms locally to heat, the external sensible heat input into the air parcel must be zero.
When surface sensible heat JS = ρCkVcp(Ts − T) is negligibly small, such that JL ≫ JS and J = JL + JS ≃ JL [as assumed by Emanuel (1986), who put T = Ts], Eq. (46) coincides with the “dissipative heating” formulation [Bister and Emanuel 1998, Eq. (21)]. Indeed, for
While Eq. (44) relates turbulent dissipation to latent heat input alone, this does not mean that “only surface latent heat fluxes can power tropical cyclones,” which is how Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) apparently misunderstood the isothermal version of Eq. (44) [see Eq. (15) of Makarieva et al. 2020]. Emanuel and Rousseau-Rizzi (2020) interpreted this relation as a contradiction in the reasoning of Makarieva et al. (2020), since it can be concluded that with no latent heat input from the ocean there can be no storms, while dry hurricanes were shown to exist at least in numerical models (Mrowiec et al. 2011; Cronin and Chavas 2019). We note, however, that whatever follows from Eq. (44), be that a contradiction or not, is an inherent feature of E-PI. All the equations that we have so far considered can be derived from E-PI’s key equations, and vice versa, as we demonstrated in section 2.
In comparison to Eq. (13), in this equation point b is not arbitrary but pertains to the point of maximum wind, while point c remains of an arbitrary choice.
Equations (48) and (49) show that when νc = 0 (no kinetic energy change in the outflow), and the air is horizontally isothermal, E-PI framework presumes
As we already noted, in the E-PI framework, total work of the cycle is equal to the work on the path B′b, where heat input occurs [see Eq. (8) in Fig. 2]. This can only be the case when the adiabat bc is, at least somewhere, warmer than the adiabat B′C′. Then the pressure deficit at b as compared to B′ can be compensated by the pressure surplus in the free troposphere at bc as compared to B′C′. Without this pressure surplus aloft, the work along bcC′B′ will be negative rather than zero (for a more detailed discussion, see Makarieva et al. 2017d, Fig. 1). When the air is horizontally isothermal, the required difference in the temperatures of the two adiabats can only be ensured by a higher water vapor mixing ratio
When the cycle is dry, achieved by putting L = 0, then Eq. (49), and the E-PI framework, lack a nontrivial solution for the isothermal case ∂T/∂r = 0. Otherwise, total work of such a cycle would exceed that of a Carnot cycle, where total work is always lower than work on the warmer isotherm. A dry Carnot cycle where total work is equal to the work at the warmer isotherm—as it is in E-PI at the point of maximum wind—is impossible. A dry E-PI hurricane must have local air temperature increasing toward the center at the point of maximum wind.
5. Conclusions
We considered an infinitely narrow steady-state thermodynamic cycle with the higher temperature corresponding to the point of maximum wind, Figs. 1 and 2, and demonstrated its equivalence to the E-PI framework as presented by Emanuel (1986) and Emanuel and Rotunno (2011). This revealed constraints not obvious in the original E-PI framework and clarified its physical meaning. A summary of our results is given in Fig. 3. Since this analysis required many detailed derivations, we leave a comparably detailed discussion and development of the implications of these results to subsequent studies. Here we outline what we consider most essential.
Main assumptions (green rounded boxes) and results (blue rectangular boxes) of this work with comments (dotted boxes).
Citation: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 80, 8; 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0172.1
The water lifting term g(zP − zb), with zP given by Eq. (28), can be evaluated for any cycle with the known distribution of qt independent of the value of ε (Fig. 3). The E-PI thermodynamic cycle has a higher efficiency than the steady-state atmospheric circulation and tropical convection (e.g., Goody 2003), which explains the less significant impact we estimated for E-PI storms (Table 1). Water lifting constitutes part of the total work of the cycle, which cannot be larger than ε times the heat input. Since latent heat is a major part of heat input, its product with efficiency approximates total work. Both water lifting and latent heat input depend on the amount of evaporated water. Hence the ratio of the water lifting to total work is roughly equal to the potential energy of precipitation gzP divided by the product of latent heat and efficiency, K1/ε ∼ gzP/(εLυ). With K1 ∼ 10−2 and ε ∼ 10−2 the energy needed to lift water can exceed the total work of the cycle.
The infinitely narrow E-PI cycle is not a real steady-state cycle where evaporation equals precipitation, as the air does not descend along the adiabat C′B′ (Fig. 1). Here, instead, the water formally arises anew with its own nonzero gravitational energy. For this reason, the water lifting term in E-PI is proportional to local evaporation
If the hurricane is composed of closed streamlines, each with a constant qt (the reversible case), the total work performed on lifting the water in such a storm is zero (section 3a). However, since the E-PI cycle is not a cycle along which the air moves, the water lifting term here is higher in the reversible case than in the pseudoadiabatic case. This is due to the higher effective precipitation height in the former [zc > aHP, Eq. (C7)]. Accounting for the water warming, which requires information about the cycle’s thermodynamics (Fig. 3), reduces this difference. For Tb ≃ 300 K and the largest observed εC ≃ 0.3 (DeMaria and Kaplan 1994), the magnitudes of βK1/εC ≃ 0.1 for reversible and pseudoadiabatic cases are similar. This corresponds to a 5% reduction of Vmax [Eq. (37)]. This reduction is larger for smaller εC but smaller for lower Tb (Table C1). The developed analytical framework can be used to evaluate corresponding magnitudes for different scenarios in numerical models.
Our analysis clarifies that ε in E-PI is not the actual efficiency of the cycle but the ratio of total work to heat input at B′b (Figs. 2 and 3). With additional heat inputs elsewhere in the cycle, ε in Eq. (7) can be higher than Carnot efficiency [cf. Eq. (24)]. This helps understand the phenomenon of “superintensity.” When the adiabaticity is violated near the tropopause due to an extra heat input, E-PI’s Eqs. (27) and (37) can significantly underestimate α∂p/∂r and the squared maximum velocity (for details, see Makarieva and Nefiodov 2021). Since at the tropopause qt is approximately zero, this extra heat input will not affect the qt distribution and, hence, will make the relative water lifting impact even smaller (same absolute magnitude of K1 related to greater total work).
Our derivations exposed the sensitivity of
The choice of the outflow point c as a point where υc = 0, i.e., putting K2 = 0, is equivalent to postulating that, for a cycle including the point of maximum wind, net work in the free troposphere is zero [see Eq. (8) in Fig. 2]. Since generally in the free troposphere the outflowing air has to move against the inward-pulling horizontal pressure gradient, compensating for this negative work requires extra warming at bc compared to C′B′. This extra warming is provided either by a higher mixing ratio at b compared to B′, or by a higher temperature, or by both. This constraint takes the form of the dependence between the outflow temperature, the mixing ratio, and the ratio of the horizontal gradients of temperature and pressure, see Eqs. (48) and (49). It follows that attempts to retrieve total pressure fall from E-PI by assuming ∂T/∂r = 0 cannot yield correct results under the conventional assumption of K2 = 0 (cf. Emanuel 1986, p. 588).
When the horizontal gradient of air temperature is moist adiabatic (which corresponds to zero heat input), Eq. (48) reduces to υb/rb = υc/rc. This constancy of angular velocity combined with angular momentum conservation along bc gives two solutions [see Eq. (33)]. One is trivial, rb = rc. Another one is νb = νc = −f/2; it describes an atmosphere at rest in the inertial frame of reference. In either case, there is no storm. However, we now know that, at least in models, it is possible to have a tropical cyclone with zero heat input from the ocean (Kieu et al. 2020), although further tapering with the conventional model parameters might be required to make such a cyclone more stable. This prompts reconsidering the relevance of the local approach for the determination of maximum potential intensity.
A nonlocal constraint on the work in the free troposphere resulting from E-PI can be applied to the integral cycle ABCDA. In this case, we cannot put ∂V2/∂r = 0 in Eq. (8). The work in the free troposphere is equal to the nonzero increment of the kinetic energy in the boundary layer. Having reached the eyewall, the air must then have sufficient energy to flow away from the hurricane. If not generated in the boundary layer, this energy could derive from a pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere: if at the expense of the hurricane’s extra warmth the air pressure in the column above the area of maximum wind is higher than in the ambient environment, this pressure gradient will accelerate the air outward. However, a significant pressure deficit at the surface precludes the formation of a significant pressure surplus aloft (e.g., Makarieva et al. 2017d, Fig. 1d).
Moreover, this pressure deficit is what accelerates air in the boundary layer. If the pressure gradient is sufficiently steep and the radial motion sufficiently rapid, air expansion will be accompanied by a drop of temperature. The process is closer to an adiabat than to an isotherm, as it was, for example, in Hurricane Isabel 2003 (Montgomery et al. 2006; Aberson et al. 2006; Makarieva and Nefiodov 2021). As the warm air creates a pressure surplus aloft facilitating the outflow, cold air creates a pressure deficit. This enhances the pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere against which the air must work to leave the hurricane. Consequently, the storm cannot deepen indefinitely. Eventually, the kinetic energy acquired in the boundary layer becomes insufficient for the rising and adiabatically cooling air to overcome the pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere, and the outflow must weaken. This condition could provide distinct constraints on storm intensity. Further research is needed to see whether such processes are relevant in real storms.
Acknowledgments.
We are grateful to three anonymous referees for their useful comments. Work of A. M. Makarieva is partially funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Free State of Bavaria under the Excellence Strategy of the Federal Government and the Länder, as well as by the Technical University of Munich–Institute for Advanced Study.
Data availability statement.
There were no raw data utilized in this study.
APPENDIX A
Deriving Eq. (3) from the Equations of Motion
Here, V is the total velocity of air motion, relative to rotating Earth; α ≡ 1/ρ is the specific volume; p is air pressure. On the right-hand side of Eq. (A1), the first term is the pressure-gradient force acting on an air parcel of unit mass from the side of its surrounding air; the second term describes the Coriolis acceleration; F is frictional force per unit mass. The geopotential Φ is defined such that g = −∇Φ, where g is the effective gravity, which in addition to the acceleration due to gravity also takes into account the centrifugal acceleration.
The geopotential is given by Φ = gz, so that g = −∇Φ = −gez. It is usual to assume that the contribution of the Coriolis force to the vertical (z) component of the equations of motion is small with respect to the contribution of the centrifugal force and can be neglected. Then ω ≃ [∇ × V] + fez, where f = 2Ω sinφ is the Coriolis parameter (Ω = 2π/T is the rotation rate of Earth, T = 24 h is the rotation period of Earth and φ is latitude).
APPENDIX B
Extra Work due to Warming Precipitating Water: Deriving Eq. (23)
Here, Lυ = Lυ0 + (cpυ − cl)(T − T0) is the latent heat of vaporization (J kg−1);
Choosing T0 = Tb ensures that
For an infinitely narrow cycle, with B′ → b, Eqs. (B8)–(B11) are valid even if B′b and cC′ are not isotherms, due to the smallness of temperature change on these paths as compared to the finite difference Tb − Tc.
APPENDIX C
Water Lifting: Deriving Eq. (27)
Here it is assumed that ql = 0 at the isotherm B′b. In Eq. (C1a), we have used the Bernoulli equation for the two streamlines, bc and B′C′, and the hydrostatic equilibrium Eq. (1) for the vertical path cC′. The unclosed contour bcC′B′ is denoted by symbol
Here
In the limit rB′ → rb and zC′ → zc we can lift the integral signs in Eq. (C4) and divide both parts of the equation by dr to obtain Eq. (27). Note that by chain rule
Due to the Clausius–Clapeyron law (B4), the relative change of temperature is about ξ−1 ∼ 0.05 of the relative change of
with a ∼ 2. For more accurate estimates, we evaluated hydrostatic saturated reversible adiabatic and pseudoadiabatic profiles with surface pressure ps = 950 hPa, zb = 1 km and variable Tb and zc (Table C1). For the same zc, the values of Tc are different, since the reversible moist adiabatic lapse rate is smaller than the pseudoadiabatic one (e.g., Mapes 2001, Fig. 1a). The dependence of HP on
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K. Emanuel made this suggestion in his signed review of (subsequently rejected) submission of Makarieva et al. (2018) to J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
In the literature one can sometimes find a loose definition of a reversible process that only assumes qt = const but allows the relative humidity to vary [e.g., Bryan and Rotunno 2009b, Eq. (23)].
Equation (B3) of Pauluis (2011) should have Tin instead of Tout in the denominator of the right-hand part; otherwise, it contradicts Eq. (B2) from which supposedly derives.
Term
This conclusion stemmed from Emanuel’s (1986) Eq. (18), where an outflow term proportional to a large squared radius first appeared. While deriving this equation for a cycle with finite B′b, Emanuel (1986, p. 588), on the one hand, used the conservation of angular momentum along streamlines bc and B′C′ and, on the other hand, assumed rB′ (interpreted as “the radial extent of the storm near the sea level”) to be large enough for ∂p/∂r to vanish and, at the same time, small enough for r∂p/∂r|b ≫ r∂p/∂r|B′ (for details, see Makarieva et al. 2019, their appendix A). With r∂p/∂r ∼ ρυ2, ignoring this term at B′ means that
Note the following differences in notations between Sabuwala et al. (2015) and the present work: Ts → Tb,