1. Introduction
The South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) plays an important role in the South American monsoon system (SAMS; Zhou and Lau 1998). A wide band of rain clouds extending from the central Amazon region to the southwest of the southern subtropical Atlantic characterizes a SACZ event. SACZ events handle most of the accumulated rainfall (around 400 mm month−1) observed in southeast Brazil (SE) during the austral summer [December–February (DJF)] (Kodama 1992; Carvalho et al. 2002, 2004; Gan et al. 2004; Coelho et al. 2016; Pezzi et al. 2023).
Heat and moisture fluxes at low tropospheric levels from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Amazon regions fuel convective activity where the SACZ is active. Transient and semistationary systems, such as frontal cyclones, Rossby waves trains, and other wave modes (van der Wiel et al. 2015a,b; Grimm and Dias 1995) also contribute to the intensification of deep convection by increasing air dynamic instability in the SACZ southernmost regions of occurrence (van der Wiel et al. 2015a,b; Grimm and Dias 1995; Ambrizzi et al. 1995; Hoskins and Ambrizzi 1993).
SACZ events are associated with strong convective activity and persistent rainfall for various days, but those with strong convection rarely remain for more than 4 days (Carvalho et al. 2004). However, a particular case of the SACZ event (which occurred between 12 and 26 December 2013) draws attention due to its characteristics, which are linked to its duration, amount of rainfall, considerable meridional expansion (north–south) in the cloudiness and rainbands during its evolution, and the intense convective activity remaining for over 10 days (as we will show later).
Examining the daily rainfall rate for this event, we found that this was greater than 20 mm day−1 in some regions of Minas Gerais (MG), Bahia (BA), Espírito Santo (ES), and Rio de Janeiro (RJ) States, i.e., about 5 mm day−1 more than the typical rainfall rate of SACZ events [around 10–15 mm day−1; see, for example, Figs. 1a–c, Rosso et al. (2018), and van der Wiel et al. (2015a,b)]. Still, according to Fig. 1, the accumulated precipitation in some regions exceeded 450 mm throughout the event. In fact, as the observational records both in Aimorés, MG, and in Vitória, ES, the precipitation amounts exceeded 650 mm in 15 days. As observed by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and by the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies of the National Research Institute Spaces (CPTEC/INPE) cited by Rosso et al. (2018), the observed rainfall during the episode in Aimorés and Vitória was about 300–400 mm above the monthly climatological precipitation amount for December. Those facts (and others that we will see later) make it possible for this event to be considered an atypical case of SACZ. Furthermore, because of the rainfall, this event caused serious social damage and economic impacts in the aforementioned regions, such as flooding (streets, roads, and homes), bridge destruction, landslides, displacement of people, and deaths.
The December 2013 SACZ episode is an unusual case for another relevant reason: it precedes an uncommon drought in SE Brazil (Coelho et al. 2016). Simultaneously with the episode, other major weather events were reported in different parts of the world, such as impressive bursts of convective activity over the Indian Ocean and an intense heat wave over central-southern South America (around the central Argentina region and Uruguay) in mid-December (Blunden and Arndt 2014).
Despite the facts and the particularities mentioned above, the dynamic and thermodynamic processes that led to the evolution of this event were not investigated before. Therefore, we will use Lorenz’s energy cycle (LEC) model (Lorenz 1955; Oort 1964; Oort and Peixóto 1974; Peixoto and Oort 1992) to understand these processes and the characteristics of the atmospheric circulation connected to the evolution of this event. The method used will be detailed in the next section.
The LEC model has been used to study several atmospheric phenomena in South America (SA), including SACZ (Mendonça and Bonatti 2008a,b), subtropical thunderstorm transition (Hurricane Catarina) (Veiga et al. 2008), and high-frequency disturbances in SA (Gan and Rao 1999). LEC will be useful in this study to understand how energy transfer/conversion processes in the atmosphere acted to maintain convective activity in the SACZ region during the event. The LEC can objectively reveal which processes (baroclinic, barotropic, or latent heat release and moisture supply via diabatic heat) had important contributions at different stages of the event’s evolution.
The following sections describe the methodology and the results and discussion. In section 3, we start with the synoptic analysis to understand the atmospheric circulation pattern. Then, we analyze and discuss the heating effects on the event evolution and their impact on the energy generation terms. Finally, we evaluate Lorenz’s energy cycle terms.
2. Methodology
This study uses the temperature, geopotential, horizontal wind component (U and V), and vertical velocity (omega, ω) data from version 5 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) retrospective analysis (ERA5) to compute the LEC for the SACZ event that occurred between 12 and 26 December 2013. The ERA5 dataset is available with 137 hybrid sigma–pressure (model) levels in the vertical and 31 km horizontal resolution. Atmospheric data are also interpolated to 37 vertical pressure levels and spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° latitude–longitude for every hour of the day (Hersbach and Dee 2016; Hersbach et al. 2020). However, for this study, we used 32 vertical levels (from 1000 to 10 hPa) interpolated to 0.5° × 0.5° horizontal resolution using bilinear interpolation and four synoptic times, which are 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from the Physical Sciences Division (PSD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, Colorado (Liebmann and Smith 1996), were used to identify the events.
The daily precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), provided by NOAA (available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-precipitation-climatology-project-gpcp-daily/access) between October 1996 and December 2018, were used to create the rain maps in Fig. 1, considering 137 SACZ events. We got all the dates of the SACZ episodes from the historical Climate Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin of the CPTEC/INPE, which we confirmed using OLR (the dates are available on the GitHub page: https://github.com/JFA-Mbule/Dates-of-SACZ).
In this work, the study area covers all of SA and parts of adjacent oceans, within 15°N–64.5°S, 90°–18.5°W, but we focused the analysis and discussion mainly on the regions where the event occurred (Fig. 1). We subdivided the SACZ area to get only the atmospheric circulation effects over the region where the event occurred; the rectangles 1–5 in Figs. 1 and 3 are the subdivisions (subareas 1–5) of the event acting area. The subareas are defined in Table C1. Note that the eddies in subareas 3, 4, and/or 5 may differ from those in 1 or 2 because the atmospheric processes can be different. So, this division is a great strategy to know which processes are more important in the southernmost and/or northernmost areas and quantify them.
The spatial structure location of the SACZ event convection pattern and its expansion throughout its evolution were identified through the OLR area with values below 230 W m−2. According to this, the most convective area associated with the event was in the most central region of its acting [from the central-south Amazon region to the Atlantic Ocean, passing around SE, near São Paulo (SP), MG, and RJ (Fig. 1)] on 12–15 December, in the northernmost position (from Amazon central passing between the north of SE and BA State) between 16 and 22 December and finally having slight confinement near initial position, during 23–26 December.
We compute the LEC components following the approach of Oort (1964) for a mixed domain of space and time, as organized by Peixóto and Oort (1974) (see equations in appendix C). This approach takes into account interactions between both transient and permanent (quasi-stationary) vortices simultaneously and has been widely used to study energetic climate aspects of the global atmosphere in annual, seasonal, and monthly analyses (Marques et al. 2009; Kim and Kim 2013; Pan et al. 2017). However, here we apply it to describe the energetic characteristics connected to the evolution of the phenomenon (SACZ) on a time scale of days and in a limited area domain. Therefore, the flow energy components [denoted by B(PM), B(PE), B(KM), and B(KE)] and the work of pressure force dynamic mechanism on the boundaries [BΦ(M) and BΦ(E)] should be considered (Muench 1965; Veiga et al. 2008; Gutierrez et al. 2009).
The equation set for the energy, conversion, and flow rates used in this study differs slightly from those used in previous studies of this nature (see, e.g., Muench 1965; Wahab et al. 2002; Veiga et al. 2008; Gutierrez et al. 2009; Da Silva and Satyamurty 2013). For instance, in the approach used here, B(PM) and B(PE) include the pressure work terms, and these are interpreted as inflows of potential energies and not as source or sink terms that directly favor the KM and KE increase or destruction (Peixóto and Oort 1974). However, as those terms [BΦ(M) and BΦ(E)] may present inconsistent and unrealistic values associated with initial errors in the geopotential reanalysis data (Wahab et al. 2002; Gutierrez et al. 2009), we do not consider them.
The equation set above [Eqs. (1)–(4)] represents the exact balance between the input and output energy reservoir components, and their interpretation is relatively simple and should reflect the evolution characteristics of the event. For instance, the increase in the potential energies of the two forms with time (
Appendix C presents the energetic equations [Eqs. (C1)–(C14)] and the symbol’s description of the associated parameters (Table C2). We used a mask based on surface pressure data to exclude subsurface data before computing the equations.
The diabatic heat rate (Q) which is needed in the equations of energy generation terms [G(PM) and G(PE)] is calculated as a residual from the thermodynamics equation (see Holton and Hakim 2012, chapter 3, p. 69). The volume integrals for the acting SACZ region, which was subdivided into 5 subareas, as in Figs. 1 and 3, are computed using 32 vertical levels.
In the results and discussion section, we make a detailed analysis of the heating/cooling effects on energy generation in the SA region (focusing on SACZ), analyzing the 2D vertical structure (pressure–latitude) and the horizontal pattern (latitude–longitude, where the 3D structure is integrated into the pressure column). The LEC results are then analyzed.
We also analyze the total mechanical energy (TME) for the event, which is given by the sum of the four energy components: potential (PM and PE) and kinetic energy (KM and KE). TME has the effects of potential and kinetic energy.
As the event presented slight changes in its convection area, the volume integral calculations, and vertical structure analysis followed these changes (see Fig. 3). It also should be noted that, besides computing the LEC for this event, we also compute the LEC for the SACZ climatology using 67 episodes that occurred in the most central SACZ activity area (Fig. 3a).
3. Results and discussion
In this section, we discuss the impact of the diabatic heat rate effects on the energy generation processes and how the energetic analysis helps us to understand the event’s development. This event occurred at the beginning of a critical period, compared to the recent history of the SACZ occurrence frequency [2006–18, which we confirmed in the frequency analyzes of occurrence and duration of SACZ events (results not shown)], and as result, there was a shortage of rain over SE Brazil, marking the beginning of a drought period and water crisis over SE (Coelho et al. 2016). However, before this, we will discuss the synoptic aspects associated with the event evolution.
a. Synoptic analysis of event
The synoptic analysis results show that the anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the lower troposphere (indicated with H and L in Fig. 3) favor the intense airflow convergence, rising or sinking in the troposphere over SA. The anticyclonic circulation associated with the Bolivian high and upper-level cyclonic vortices near the Brazilian northeast coast at 200 hPa (Kousky and Gan 1981; Kodama 1992; Lenters and Cook 1997; Zhou and Lau 1998) is consistent with the strongest atmosphere updrafts at 500 hPa in the SACZ region and, thus, with the extreme convection observed. In addition, the anticyclonic circulations at the low levels, which show the compensation subsidence regions for the upward movement in the mainland and ocean SACZ area, contributed to the severe heat wave in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and the central Argentina region (see, for example, Blunden and Arndt 2014, p. S173).
A geopotential eddy (Φ*) analysis at 200 hPa, revealed that the different SACZ patterns observed in Fig. 3 were favored by the influence of wave train configurations established at midlatitudes (see appendix B, Fig. B1). We find that during 12–15 December, the location of the anticyclonic circulations at 850 hPa around southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina (Fig. 3a) were largely influenced by the alternating positions of high and low centers from the wave train (see, for example, Fig. B1). Furthermore, this wave train favored the lowering of the height near 27°S, 38°W, which consequently led to a surface pressure drop there. This increased the extent of surface mass convergence and convection over the ocean area.
At the beginning of the period from 16 to 22 December, the wave train configuration led to the anticyclonic circulation expanding at 850 hPa on the mainland and the 200 hPa height lowering over the ocean near the SE and south of BA (see Φ* in Figs. B1b,d). This likely led to the confinement, expansion, and intensification of the convection to the north, which results in strong rains around the southern part of northeast Brazil (NEB) and the northern part of SE (Fig. 1). Finally, at the end of this period, the displacement of the anticyclonic circulation toward the southwest Atlantic Ocean, combined with the height center displacement near SE toward the mainland, forced the cyclogenesis at the surface around 28°S, 44°W. During 23–26 December, the cyclogenesis favored the low pressure extension at the surface to the south and a slight southward convection shift (Figs. B1c,e). Cyclone activity in this region seems to be a predominant characteristic of the SACZ events and has an important role in the heat flow at low levels in the ocean SACZ area due to the sea surface temperature changes (Pezzi et al. 2022). Thus, the midlatitudes wave train plays an important role in the SACZ event evolution through cyclogenesis processes in the southernmost areas.
At the end of the period of 23–26 December, the wave train configuration seems to favor anticyclonic circulation expansion on the surface over the SA central region, which led to the event decay (Fig. B1f). Thus, different wave train positioning configurations acted to favor the establishment, expansion/retraction, and decay of the SACZ event.
b. Structure of the diabatic heat rate and energy generation
The vertical structures and horizontal distribution of the diabatic heat rate (Q/Cp) and energy generation components [G(PM) and G(PE)] calculated by thermodynamic energy and Oort’s equations are in Figs. 4 and 5, respectively. We examine the vertical structures of the Q/Cp for each subarea (Figs. 4a–d) and discuss their effects on the energy generation terms [G(PM) (Figs. 4a′–d′) and G(PE) (Figs. 4a″–d″)].
The diabatic heat rate (Q/Cp) generally reaches its peak in the middle troposphere (around 500 hPa, Figs. 4a–d). This suggests that most of the latent heat released during the event occurred at these levels. Our analysis revealed that the heating estimated as the residual of the thermodynamic equation was larger in subareas 2 and 3 (located in the tropics/subtropics), where the latent heat release effect in convective clouds was most pronounced. Previous research has also documented higher latent heat release in these levels and regions during the austral summer (Hantel and Baader 1978; Seo and Son 2012; Ling and Zhang 2013; van der Wiel et al. 2015a).
Analyses of the Q/Cp vertical structure in each of the five SACZ’s acting subareas show that the heating increased by a factor of 3 at middle levels in subarea 1 from the first (12–15 December) to the second period (16–22 December) and decreased to a quarter at the end of the event in subarea 5 (Figs. 4a–d). The intense airflow convergence in the SACZ area, influenced by wave train configurations established in midlatitude, provided this heating increase. As previously discussed, the wave trains favored the band convection expansion to the north and convergence enhancement near the SE and NEB coasts between 16 and 22 December (Figs. 3b and B1d). Another key finding from the Q/Cp analysis was the heating increase in the middle troposphere levels during 23–26 December in subarea 4, located slightly to the south in the subtropics (Fig. 4c). During this period, the SACZ convection moved slightly to the south, considering its most northerly position. In synoptic analysis, we found that this was influenced by transient waves passing on the south of the SACZ’s acting region, which led to the cyclone’s development near 28°S and 44°W (Fig. 3c). The cyclone, in its turn, intensified the convection over this region, supporting the findings of Grimm and Dias (1995), Ambrizzi et al. (1995), and Grimm (2019). For more information about the cyclogenesis process in SA, see Reboita et al. (2018) and de Jesus et al. (2021).
On average, the diabatic heat rate was greater during 16–22 December when the event reached its northernmost position, which we call SACZ-NP, in subareas 2 and 3 (Fig. 4). The analysis of the storm’s latent heat release structure is important to understanding the energy generation structure. Thus, now we will look at the impact of this on energy generation for the event.
The G(PM) [G(PE)] terms depend on the covariance of the meridional (zonal and temporal) deviations of Q and T. Therefore, G(PM) and G(PE) act as sources (sinks) of the respective energy terms, PM and PE, when this covariance is positive (negative). Figures 4a′–d′ show that the G(PM) was greater from middle to upper troposphere levels (between 600 and 250 hPa) such as in Q structures, except for the maxima, which were in subareas 4 and 5, where the horizontal thermal gradient is larger, resulting in a strong positive correlation between Q and T. Although Q was small at low levels in subarea 5, G(PM) exhibits some positive (negative) values at 850 hPa (975 hPa), indicating a large T deviation caused by transient processes near the surface.
For the different periods, we found that during 12–15 December, the largest G(PM) values were found in subareas 4 and 5, and the maximum peak in subarea 5 coincides with the Q maximum there, indicating a large contribution of the Q meridional deviations in G(PM) and on the SACZ ocean area extension. Between 16 and 22 December, we observe the subarea 3 dominance both in Q and on the generation components, and a strong reduction in subareas 4 and 5, corroborated with synoptic analysis. As discussed before, the lowering of height seen around subarea 3 improves the convection and so increases Q in this subarea. The large negative G(PM) values observed around 250 hPa in subarea 5 during this period were favored by the strong influence of wave trains that drove a sharp change in the trends of meridional temperature deviations from negative (−0.06°K, at 1200 UTC 21 December) to positive (0.10°K, at 1200 UTC 22 December), leading to a strong negative covariance between Q and T deviations (Fig. 4b′). In the tropics and subtropics, G(PM) was larger during this period, which is consistent with the convection expansion and the increased meridional temperature gradient in those areas. Finally, during 23–26 December, G(PM) became large again in subarea 4, indicating strong activities related to transient wave processes in the southernmost areas. In general, Q values in subareas 1, 2, and 3 had less impact in G(PM) mainly during 12–15 and 23–26 December, because the meridional temperature gradient in those areas was weaker.
The G(PE) profiles also had large positive values between middle to upper levels (maxima peaks around 400 hPa), mainly when the event had been northernmost. Considerable contributions at low troposphere levels (below 850 hPa) are also observed in the tropics and subtropics (Fig. 4″), revealing the low-level heating and cumulus clouds presence in those SACZ areas. By analyzing each period, it was observed that during 12–15 December, the large G(PE) values were found above 500 hPa in 2, 4, and 5 subareas (Fig. 4a″). On the other hand, during 16–22 December, the largest contributions were found in subarea 3 (Fig. 4b″) where the wave train favored the convection and increased the covariance between Q and T deviations. In the last period, the wave train led to increasing G(PE) subarea 4 (Fig. 4c″). These results show the regions where the positive (negative) covariance between the zonal and temporal deviations of Q and T is larger (smaller).
It should be noted that in the tropics, the G(PE) values had maxima peaks above 300 hPa, indicating that the potential energy is also generated in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere region, and this can be reflecting the deep convection from large cumulonimbus clouds that throw a lot of energy over the low stratosphere.
In general, potential energy from both forms was generated at low and upper levels (below 800 hPa and above 400 hPa) in the tropics/subtropics and between 600 and 300 hPa in the southernmost subareas (3, 4, and 5) but was destroyed below 850 hPa in higher latitudes of the SACZ (subareas 4 and 5). This shows the important role played by boundary layer diabatic heating in the tropics, as happens in the Bolivian Altiplano (Fig. 3) and the diabatic heating effects from the convective disturbance in higher latitudes. These results are confirmed in its spatial structure (Fig. 5), where it is observed that on the tropics and subtropics, G(PE) is positive in the SACZ and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) activity areas and near the Andes Mountains on its east side. The value of G(PE) is also positive at high latitudes over the regions of storm tracks (Trenberth 1991; Hoskins and Hodges 2005; Graff and Lacasce 2012), where the positive covariance between temporal and zonal variations of T and Q is larger. During the final period, G(PE) was negative in parts of the subareas 3 and 4 (Fig. 5c′), which indicates the break-event pattern. G(PE) results also reveal that the SACZ ocean extension was mainly maintained by transient processes on 16–22 December (Figs. 5b″,b′″) and by quasi-stationary processes between 23 and 26 December (Figs. 5c″,c′″), showing the importance of those types of atmospheric processes on the energy generation for the SACZ events.
Briefly, until here we showed that the release of latent heat through diabatic heat has a significant impact on energy generation for SACZ events, and this happens mainly from middle to upper levels. Significant contributions were also observed at low levels in the tropics, subtropics, and the last subarea. The next step consists of investigating the energy cycle and analyzing how the observed patterns in the synoptic analysis are reflected in the LEC.
c. Analysis of the LEC components
In this section, we analyze all LEC components and the vertical structures of the energy components (PM, PE, KM, and KE) for the SACZ event that occurred from 12 to 26 December 2013.
Figure 6 displays the volume integral results for the energy cycle during the event in the five subareas. We also computed the LEC using a larger domain, but the differences were not significant for many LEC terms, so their results will not be shown. The analysis was based on the average of the subareas that were arranged over the SACZ location pattern and followed the convection area changes during the event (see Fig. 3). Thus, Fig. 6 refers to the averages when the event’s most convective area was in its most central position (SACZ-CP) on 12–15 December, the northernmost pattern (SACZ-NP) from 16 to 22 December, and finally when the convection was again slightly confined near SACZ-CP, which we also denote as SACZ-CP, between 23 and 26 December 2013.
According to Fig. 6, in the first period, 12–15 December, the net heat balance (heating/cooling) in low and high latitudes over the SACZ region resulted in a notably high G(PM) of 40.21 W m−2. The PM is converted to PE at an average rate of 1.79 W m−2, through baroclinic processes. Similarly, due to the heat supply (heating/cooling between continent/ocean and clouds), PE was generated with a mean rate of 2.23 W m−2. The C(PE, KE) term reveals that PE was the primary source of KE, accounting for 3.47 W m−2, which is more than 3 times the absolute value of the conversion component from KE to KM [C(KE, KM) = −1.02 W m−2, barotropic instability]. Another notable result is found in the dissipation D(KM) at a mean rate of 37.77 W m−2, indicating that a significant energy rate has been transferred to aspects of the mean flow that are not represented on the data grid resolution and to other processes such as cooling and dissipative friction.
The contributions of energy transport terms in the first period were dominated by B(KM), with −4.34 W m−2 mean, acting as a component that reduces the KM trends,
For reservoir components, we observe that during this period the temporal and horizontal temperature variation in the SACZ area resulted in PM and PE of 1.17 × 105 and 1.23 × 105 J m−2, respectively. KM is by far the largest reservoir component, with 10.76 × 105 J m−2 mean, showing the significant influence of the subtropical jet in the event region. The KE is 2.72 × 105 J m−2 (more than the sum of PM and PE), indicating that there are significant eddy wind activities in the area.
During 12–15 December, the negative tendencies for
It can be seen from Fig. 6 that the kinetic energy dissipation components, D(KM) and D(KE), have large values, 37.77 and 3.08 W m−2, respectively. Those terms are defined in Eqs. (3) and (4) as residuals from the balance of the tendency, the conversions, and the boundary terms. In fact, the dissipation terms are related to the scale of events that are not represented in the resolution of the data. They include not only the energy dissipated by friction and cooling but also the direct energy cascade to the smaller eddies that are not represented by the data grid (0.5° × 0.5°) used in this analysis. This large residual (dissipation) rate helps to account for the large conversion rate C(PM, KM) (40.79 W m−2) that does not affect the growth rate of KM (
During the established period, 16–22 December, SACZ convective area expanded to the north and was extremely intense in the subareas 1, 2, and 3, resulting in a 25% increase in the KE (3.39 × 105 J m−2) compared to the previous period. PE was greater than in the initial period, indicating that the continent-ocean thermal contrast was greater throughout this period. This was primarily the result of the greatest zonal temperature gradient maintained by horizontal and vertical sensible heat transport [C(PM, PE) > 0 and G(PE) > 0] in the subareas 3, 4, and 5. These results were confirmed from a more detailed analysis of the PE mean values for each subarea which were 11.25% and 38.08% higher on average in subareas 3 and 5 compared to other periods (12–15 and 23–26 December, SACZ-CP). Still, during 16–22 December, PM was about 30% less in subarea 5 compared to the other periods, evidencing the wave train influence. According to Gutierrez et al. (2009), the thermal circulations induced by very strong baroclinic eddies are predominant in these areas, therefore acting to destabilize the atmosphere as seen in previous discussions.
The generation of PM, G(PM), the KM dissipation, D(KM), and the conversion rate from PM to KM, C(PM, KM), with mean of 19.68, 16.22, and 19.84 W m−2, respectively, were reduced to about half of the values of the first period. This decrease was not observed in the dissipation of eddy kinetic energy, D(KE), which grew by almost 6%, reaching 3.27 W m−2 in this period.
In the last period, between 23 and 26 December 2013, generation terms reveal that, due to the negative correlation between heating and temperature deviation, PM was destroyed [G(PM)= −16.22 W m−2]. The G(PE) decreased below half of its value in the initial period (with negative values in the last 18 h). This shows a break of the SACZ pattern at the finish of this period (Figs. 5 and B1f). As observed in the onset and mature stages, the barotropic conversion favored the increase of KE in the SACZ regions by draining energy from KM [C(KE, KM) < 0, barotropic instability], with a stronger rate of −1.24 W m−2, indicating the domain of barotropic instability during this period. In addition, during this period, KM transfers energy to PM [C(PM, KM) < 0], resulting in a liquid cooling in the southernmost regions and higher energy consumption by the indirect local zonal mean circulation (Kim and Kim 2013). During the final period, the boundary flow terms acted as sources for PM, PE, KM, and KE, draining energy from out of the domain at mean rates of 0.26, 0.18, 6.03, and 0.38 W m−2, respectively. These results, besides showing that these terms can be comparable to those found for the SAMS by Gutierrez et al. (2009), also provide evidence that sensible heat and momentum transport are important to the event evolution.
Also corroborating the weakening of the event, the dissipative term D(KM) has a negative value (−13.47 W m−2), showing a reverse cascade of energy and helping to account for the conversion rate [C(PM, KM) = −17.11 W m−2] from KM to PM. The negative dissipation, D(KM), can serve as an indicator of the event’s end. Further studies could examine this hypothesis in other events, along with an analysis of higher-resolution data.
The mean energy trends (
On average, G(PM) was 14.54 W m−2, indicating a strong correlation between latent heat release and meridional temperature deviations during the event. PM was converted to PE at a mean rate of 1.27 W m−2, through baroclinic processes. Similarly, due to the covariance temporal and zonal deviation between heating and temperature, PE was generated at a rate of 1.78 W m−2. The PE was converted to KE at a mean rate of 2.76 W m−2, implying the rising (sinking) of relatively warm (cold) air in the SACZ area. A portion of KE was dissipated by friction and turbulence at a mean rate of 3.17 W m−2. However, the barotropic instability [C(KE, KM) < 0 (done at a mean of −0.91 W m−2)] acted throughout the event which favored the eddy jet intensification in the SACZ regions. The contributions of flow terms were dominated by B(PM) with a 1.23 W m−2 mean. Although the contributions of the other terms [B(PE), B(KM), and B(KE)] were small on the event average (12–26 December), they present nonnegligible values.
In the reservoir components, PM in the SACZ (0.91 × 105 J m−2 on average) tends to be smaller than the global averages found by Li et al. (2007, 2011), Marques et al. (2009), Kim and Kim (2013), and Pan et al. (2017), which is consistent with the low temperature gradient in these regions (Mendonça and Bonatti 2008a; Da Silva and Satyamurty 2013). KM is dominant with an average of 10.21 × 105 J m−2, showing the large influence of subtropical jets during the event. The temporal and zonal deviations of winds and temperature also had great importance, resulting in PE and KE of 1.35 × 105 and 3.28 × 105 J m−2, respectively.
The positive potential energy trends suggest a large contribution from these energy generation forms. On the other hand, the positive kinetic energy trends indicate less dissipation; that is, the intensification of the winds reflected the decrease in dissipation. Those components present a negative tendency for the zonal mean state and a positive for the eddy energies.
Although the mean trends of potential energies are positive (
When looking at the climatology mean results of LEC (considering 67 events) obtained based on the subareas in Fig. 3a, we observed that the mean values of energy terms in this event were not significantly large when compared to the SACZ events climatology mean values. For instance, the mean potential energies represent only 30.94% and 25.77% of the PM and PE climatologies, respectively. In the kinetic energies, those were 95.79% for KM and 76.29% for KE. Furthermore, the C(PM, PE) for the event represents only 12.27% of the climatic average.
Despite these facts, some interesting aspects highlight the characteristics of this event: 1) the LEC climatology shows that the PE is mainly maintained by the average state of the potential energy (PM), which was not observed in the present event; 2) while dry baroclinic instability [G(PE) < 0, C(PM, PE) > 0 and C(PE, KE) > 0] dominate in the climatology, in the present event the moist baroclinic instability [G(PE) > 0, C(PM, PE) > 0, and C(PE, KE) > 0] dominated during almost the entire event (93.33% of the time, except for the last 24 h); 3) the results of C(KE, KM) suggest a most intense barotropic instability in this event compared to the climatology; and finally, 4) while the B(KM) and B(KE) contribute to decrease KM and KE on the climatic mean, in this event these transport components acted to amplify/increase KM and KE, which was important to keep jet activity active and the convection in the domain during the last period analyzed.
Figure 7 shows the time mean state during 12–26 December 2023 for the vertical structures of PM, KM, PE, and KE in the SACZ region. The profiles for the periods of 12–15 (SACZ-CP), 16–22 (SACZ-NP), and 23–26 December 2013 (SACZ-CP) are not shown. These results represent the zonal averages of each subarea of SACZ activity at each pressure–latitude point.
In general, larger contributions of PM were observed in the subtropics at low levels and to the south 35°S in the troposphere column. PM centers are also observed at upper levels between 600 and 100 hPa in the tropics/subtropics (Fig. 7), reflecting the strong latent heating release at midlevels (see Fig. 4). The PE structure exhibits the maxima in low troposphere levels at 20°S (Fig. 7c), which coincides with the regions of largest eddy potential energy generation [G(PE), in subarea 3 (see Figs. 4 and 5)]. Large contributions of PE are also found in higher latitudes than 35°S, where the low-level maxima are associated with growing extratropical cyclones (Li et al. 2007; Kim and Kim 2013). In the tropics, the centers are weaker and located in the lower troposphere between 2° and 5°S. These results indicate the low continental thermal gradient in the equatorial regions and land–sea contrast in subarea 3 (near the subtropics) which increases the zonal temperature gradient in this SACZ region and, thus, PE values there.
The influences of tropospheric and stratospheric jets during the event are highlighted in the KM and KE pressure–latitude structures (Figs. 7b,d). The KM maxima are located in jet stream regions at 200 hPa to the south of 32°S. It was observed that the maxima associated with jets were stronger/more intense and slightly displaced to the north during 12–15 and 23–26 December 2013. KE is associated with jet perturbations and it is affected by KM and PE since synoptic cyclonic vortices are controlled by temperature disturbances (Li et al. 2007). The KE maxima are also found at upper levels close to the subtropical jet regions. We find that during 12–15 December, KE presents maximum center values (around 35 × 105 J m−2 bar−1) when compared to 16–22 (25 × 105 J m−2 bar−1), meaning more intense eddies wind activities in the first period. On average, KE cores were located between KM and PE, which is interesting, since this shows the connection/influence of these two components in the structures and KE maxima locations.
In Fig. 7, shading represents the TME mean for the periods analyzed. TME is given by the sum of four energy components, thus showing the effects of the winds (KM and KE) and temperature variation (PM and PE). These structures highlight the regions with the larger contributions of each type of energy. The contributions of potential energies are larger at low levels, where the zonal and meridional temperature gradients are large, and kinetic energies at high levels over the jet regions, highlighting the importance of these components and how they are connected to contribute to the event evolution.
The time series of the energy terms PM, PE, KM, KE, and TME (at the four synoptic times) are presented in Fig. 8. Temporal variation analysis of the LEC components is important to understanding the evolution of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the event. These indicate the changes related to the jets, cyclones, and anticyclones in the SACZ regions during the event.
Throughout the event evolution, PM and PE terms varied between 0.25 and 1.60 × 105 J m−2. Both PM and PE had large contributions during the beginning and/or the end of each period analyzed. For instance, while PM major values that contributed a lot to the event evolution were during 12–13, 20–21, 23–24, and 25 December after 1800 UTC, PE contribution was mainly during 16–19 December (values directly reflected in Fig. 6). These alternations, beyond indicating warming/cooling and an increase in the temperature gradient in zonal and meridional directions during these periods, can also be seen as important to support the convective activities and episode duration. Likewise, the energy components associated with air mass movements ranged from 2.5 to 5 × 105 J m−2 for KE and between 7.5 and 15 × 105 J m−2 for KM. These results, as well as those already analyzed (in previous items), show that KM predominates over other components in the SACZ regions, which is important to maintain the jet activities and consequently the convection in the most southern areas. It is interesting to note that the energy components time series plot shows strong energy growth in the initial times (between 0000 UTC 12 December and 0600 UTC 13 December, mainly on the PM, KM, and KE where this is most evident). This indicates that the environment presented favorable conditions for the event’s evolution hours before its onset. Satellite image analysis corroborates this, showing a cloud band with the SACZ orientation one day before the event establishment.
The evolution of energy component results show that the most significant trends (highest in absolute values), observed in Fig. 6 during 12–15 December in PM and KM and from 23 to 26 December in the rest of the components, are reflecting the PM and KM strong drop observed from 0600 UTC 13 December and their increasing after 1200 UTC 25 December (Fig. 8). The time series analyses of the conversion terms (figures not shown) indicate that the KM drop was a consequence of a drop in the conversion from PM to KM [C(PM, KM)]. This is also supported by successive PM falls, observed from 0600 UTC 13 December forward. On the other hand, the trends during 23–26 December in PE and KE components are also related to the PE trends growth and conversion component time series from PM to PE [C(PM, PE)] and C(PE, KE). In addition, the peaks observed in the power generations throughout the event evolution (figures also not shown) agree with the main peaks observed in potential energies (PM and PE), showing the agreement between generation terms and their respective energy components. Similarly, G(PM) and G(PE) terms calculated by Oort’s formulation [Eqs. (C5) and (C6)], reflect the main PM and PE peaks in the time series and represent well the heating effects for the event evolution. However, they present some discrepancies with the values found using the balance between input and output components of the energy reservoirs [Eqs. (1) and (2)]. On mean, G(PE) calculated by Eq. (C6), is similar to the value obtained from Eq. (2) (1.78 and 1.98 W m−2), but G(PM) had about 90% differences [that is, 14.54 W m−2 in Eq. (1) and 0.93 W m−2 by Eq. (C5)], which can be due to the energy generated in the small scale that are not represented on the data grid used and by large geopotential meridional deviation in higher latitudes that resulted in large C(PM, KM) values and consequently, on G(PM) values.
Besides showing the large predominance and influence of jet streams to boost the generation of vortexes associated with the mass lifting (convection) over the SACZ southern region and evidence of the strong connection between LEC components, the results obtained give strong indications that atmospheric instability of the SACZ episodes can be explained with the LEC model.
4. Conclusions
In this study, we used the LEC model to analyze the particularly persistent SACZ event of 12–26 December 2013 that precedes an extreme drought in southeast Brazil (Coelho et al. 2016).
The analysis of diabatic heat (Q/Cp), reveals that the latent heat release at middle levels plays an important role in maintaining the circulation of these weather events. The Q/Cp vertical structure presents a broad bell shape with a peak around 500 hPa. Q/Cp maximum values in the ITCZ and SACZ regions are reflected in the vertical and spatial structures of G(PM) and G(PE).
The G(PM) and G(PE) vertical structures present maximum values between 500 and 200 hPa. On G(PE) a secondary peak appears in the tropics and subtropics (subareas 1, 2, and 3) at lower levels (below 850 hPa); however, another peak is found around 600 hPa in subarea 3. These patterns indicate that subarea 3 may have relevant energy contributions for SACZ from different cloud depths (shallow, medium, and deep), which were largely influenced by wave trains from midlatitudes. The wave trains favored lowering the height along the coasts of Sergipe and Bahia States from 16 to 22 December, causing a slight expansion of convection northward. During 23–26 December, the wave train favored cyclogenesis at the surface near 28°S, 44°W, resulting in the highest values of G(PM) and G(PE) generation in subarea 4. This emphasizes the importance of diabatic heating and the impact of midlatitude wave train configurations on SACZ energy generation.
The balance between the input and output components of the energy reservoirs reveals that, on average, the energy for the SACZ event was generated at a rate of 14.54 W m−2 for G(PM) and 1.78 W m−2 in G(PE) (Fig. 6). The energy generation rates in the initial periods (12–15 December) were more than 50% higher than the average of other periods. Furthermore, between 23 and 26 December G(PM) became negative and G(PE) decreased by half, meaning a predominance of negative covariance between Q and T deviations and the destruction of PM and PE. KM loses energy to PM during this period [C(PM, KM) negative, −16.28 W m−2 (Fig. 6)], suggesting a higher energy consumption by the zonal mean circulation in the southernmost SACZ region, as seen on the Ferrel cell (Kim and Kim 2013). KM was an order of magnitude greater than PM, but PE is the same order as KE, indicating that the disturbances had some zonal temperature variation. Despite the fact that the flow contributions at the boundaries are two orders of magnitude less than the generation and conversion rates, their importance cannot be ignored because they transport heat and momentum across the domain boundaries. In the last period, D(KM) was negative (−13.47 W m−2), which indicates that KM had contribution from some process not modeled by the LEC, perhaps from energy conversion from scales not solved in the data grid resolution used. In addition, the large difference between G(PM) calculated from Eq. (1) and by Eq. (C5) can be another indication of this.
The barotropic and baroclinic processes exhibit some particularities that make this event an atypical case when compared with the LEC climatology for SACZ events. This event was primarily driven by moist baroclinic instability, which dominated approximately 93% of the time, whereas in the climatology mean, the events are driven by dry baroclinic instability. Likewise, the barotropic instability was more intense during this event.
The results allow us to conclude that the heating obtained from energy generation rates [G(PM) and G(PE)] can explain the event’s history, including the onset, development, and convection expansion/retraction. Likewise, dissipation can be explained by cooling via negative covariance between Q and T, which transformed the moist baroclinic instability [G(PE), C(PM, PE) and C(PE, KE) positive] associated with clouds and rainfalls in the early stages, into dry baroclinic instability [G(PE) negative, and C(PM, PE) and C(PE, KE) positive] in the later periods. Therefore, as the barotropic instability [C(KE, KM) < 0] favored the KE increase, intensifying the turbulent jets and the dissipation through friction (which decreases KM and KE) did not favor the event decay, the energy destruction processes caused by the partial decrease of clouds in the SACZ region were the mechanism responsible for the event decay. This result is also reflecting the influence of the anticyclonic circulation at the surface which broke the SACZ pattern in the final periods.
Thus, it is clear that different modes of wave trains can act to enhance, establish, and/or disrupt the SACZ pattern. The above-mentioned interesting energetic aspects, the intense convection, the wide variation in the position, and the amount of rain are strong indicators that this event can be an atypical case. However, a study of the LEC for other SACZ events may help to identify typical energy cycle characteristics for medium events and perhaps identify additional environmental patterns (Fialho et al. 2023) that may determine long-lasting SACZ events.
Acknowledgments.
This work was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Process Number 131725/2018-1, and, in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior–Brasil (CAPES)–Code 001, which we thank. We thank the reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions for this paper. We also extend our thanks to Dr. José Paulo Bonatti for the valuable discussions about energetics and to Gilvani Gomes de Carvalho for her suggestions and help with the English text revision.
Data availability statement.
All data used in this study are freely available at the following repositories: ERA5: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?type=dataset; NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/.
APPENDIX A
Author’s Note
Diabatic heating is well correlated with regions of convective rain and indirectly linked to the general circulation of the atmosphere in the tropics/subtropics. This relation has long been established in the scientific community (Hantel and Baader 1978; Aravequia et al. 1995; Seo and Son 2012; Ling and Zhang 2013). However, a good understanding of the heating effects that drive tropical convection is still a subject of particular scientific interest because it is important to improve the representation and prediction of atmospheric phenomena that cause rain in these regions. In our study using Lorenz energetics, we noticed that an excellent representation of these effects is particularly useful to represent the intensification and changes of the SACZ convection area. It was evident that the warming obtained from the energy generation rates is an important factor and represents well the mechanisms responsible for the beginning, intensification, and weakening of the SACZ, which is indispensable to improving the prediction of these events on the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and, thus, to avoid losses of material goods and safeguard human life.
APPENDIX B
Vertical Velocity and Geopotential Eddy Patterns
We noted that the results discussed in this study were largely influenced by wave spectrum configuration established at midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These waves acted to change the upper-level circulation pattern over regions where SACZ operates and led to convection enhancement and consequently large rainfall amounts (Grimm 2019; Reboita et al. 2018; Grimm and Dias 1995). As we can see in Fig. B1 which shows the vertical velocity and geopotential eddy spatial patterns during the event, the spectrum was a combination of different wave types such as Rossby waves and wavenumbers 3 and 5, evidencing the large importance of these waves to improve the convection in the SACZ, mainly in ocean areas.
APPENDIX C
Symbol Descriptions and Energetics Equations
-
PM: Zonal mean available potential energy:
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PE: Eddy (transient + stationary) available potential energy:
-
KM: Zonal mean kinetic energy:
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KE: Eddy (transient + stationary) kinetic energy:
-
G(PM): Generation rate of PM:
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G(PE): Generation (transient + stationary) rate of PE:
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C(PM, PE): Conversion from PM to PE:
-
C(PE, KE): Conversion from PE to KE:
-
C(KE, KM): Conversion from KE to KM:
-
C(PM, KM): Conversion from PM to KM:
-
The four energy transport terms are given bywhere
, ϕS and ϕN are the more south and north latitudes, λW and λE are the more west and east longitudes, and pb (=1000 hPa) and pt (=10 hPa) are the pressures on the base and top boundaries in each subarea (see Table C1). Table C2 provides descriptions for the symbols used in these equations.
Definition vertices for the subareas during the SACZ event.
Description of the symbols.
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