The 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (2022 SFE) was held 2 May–3 June 2022, marking the third consecutive year of virtual SFEs. We expect this to be the last year of fully virtual experiments with a transition to hybrid formats (in person and virtual) in the future. SFEs are co-led by the NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and aim to accelerate research-to-operations (R2O) by testing new prediction capabilities, studying how end users apply and interpret severe weather guidance, and conducting numerous model evaluation activities. The virtual environment allowed for over 165 forecasters, researchers, and students to participate from around the world, and the wide range of backgrounds provided many unique perspectives and opportunities for participants to learn from one another.
SFE 2022 forecasting activities emphasized using experimental calibrated and machine learning (ML)-based products, with two “data denial” experiments withholding this guidance from control groups. Model evaluations used the 61-member Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE; Clark et al. 2018) and included examinations of deterministic and ensemble prototypes for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), evaluating data assimilation methodologies, comparing different Finite Volume Cubed Sphere model (FV3) physics packages, and analyzing resolution sensitivities in 1- and 3-km grid-spacing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Other model evaluations studied machine learning applications for severe weather, mesoscale analyses, NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), and calibrated severe weather guidance from operational global and regional ensembles.
This work comprised regular duties at federally funded NOAA/NSSL for Clark, Potvin, Burke, and Imy, and NOAA/SPC for Jirak and Karstens. Gallo, Roberts, Knopfmeier, Vancil, Jahn, Krocak, Loken, Dahl, Harrison, Wade, Milne, Hoogewind, Flora, Martin, Matilla, Picca, and Skinner were funded by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA–University of Oklahoma (OU) Cooperative Agreement NA21OAR4320204, U.S. Department of Commerce. OU’s Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis also funded Krocak.
Clark, A. J., and Coauthors, 2018: The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in the 2016 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1433–1448, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0309.1.