Verification of Prognostic Charts

View More View Less
  • 1 U. S. Weather Bureau, Washington 25, D. C.
  • 2 Bureau of Aeronautics, Project AROW A, Bldg. R-48, U. S. Naval Air Station, Norfolk, Va.
© Get Permissions
Full access

Desirable characteristics of a system for scoring prognostic charts are discussed. A successful system now in use at the WBAN Analysis Center is described in detail. The preliminary score produced is a function of the pressure difference between pairs of stations over the area of the chart. A secondary score, the deviation from a running mean of daily scores adjusted by handicaps assigned to the individual forecasters, is a measure of forecasting skill relatively independent of many spurious effects. The slowly varying handicap is a useful means of ranking the ability of the forecasters.

* On leave from U. S. Weather Bureau, with Foreign Operations Administration, Ankara, Turkey.

Desirable characteristics of a system for scoring prognostic charts are discussed. A successful system now in use at the WBAN Analysis Center is described in detail. The preliminary score produced is a function of the pressure difference between pairs of stations over the area of the chart. A secondary score, the deviation from a running mean of daily scores adjusted by handicaps assigned to the individual forecasters, is a measure of forecasting skill relatively independent of many spurious effects. The slowly varying handicap is a useful means of ranking the ability of the forecasters.

* On leave from U. S. Weather Bureau, with Foreign Operations Administration, Ankara, Turkey.

Save