A Solution to the Problem of Evaluating Forecast Techniques

View More View Less
  • 1 USAF, Chanute Air Force Base, Illinois
© Get Permissions
Full access

The evaluation of the operational utility of new forecast techniques has presented meteorologists with a difficult problem for many years. Both the per cent correct score and the commonly used skill score possess rather serious limitations which are discussed in this paper. Finally, a new evaluation score is proposed which retains most of the good features of the other two scores but does not retain their primary limitations.

The evaluation of the operational utility of new forecast techniques has presented meteorologists with a difficult problem for many years. Both the per cent correct score and the commonly used skill score possess rather serious limitations which are discussed in this paper. Finally, a new evaluation score is proposed which retains most of the good features of the other two scores but does not retain their primary limitations.

Save