Prediction of Upper-Air Winds over Cape Canaveral

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  • 1 Lockheed Missiles and Space Division
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The prediction-error variance has been obtained by linear-regression methods for various 12-hr and 24-hr predictions of winter-season winds over Cape Canaveral, Florida. The prediction schemes employed include the most sophisticated which utilizes all of the wind measurements at all of the altitude levels as well as the simplest which utilizes only the measurements at the same altitude level. The results show that very little is gained by considering the most sophisticated or “Best Linear Prediction” as opposed to the simplest. Also, very little is gained by taking more than one sounding in advance of the prediction. An appreciable decrease in the error variance, especially in the region just below the jet-stream altitude, is realized for the 12-hr as compared to the 24-hr prediction.

1 Work carried out under Air Force Contract AF 04 (647)-558.

The prediction-error variance has been obtained by linear-regression methods for various 12-hr and 24-hr predictions of winter-season winds over Cape Canaveral, Florida. The prediction schemes employed include the most sophisticated which utilizes all of the wind measurements at all of the altitude levels as well as the simplest which utilizes only the measurements at the same altitude level. The results show that very little is gained by considering the most sophisticated or “Best Linear Prediction” as opposed to the simplest. Also, very little is gained by taking more than one sounding in advance of the prediction. An appreciable decrease in the error variance, especially in the region just below the jet-stream altitude, is realized for the 12-hr as compared to the 24-hr prediction.

1 Work carried out under Air Force Contract AF 04 (647)-558.

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