credible interval temperature forecasts

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  • 1 Department of Psychology, University of Ann Arbor, Mich. 48105
  • 2 Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, Colo. 80302
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An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of intervals of variable width and fixed probability. The use of such intervals, called credible intervals, permits forecasters to describe the uncertainty inherent in their temperature forecasts in a meaningful, quantitative way. The results of the experiment indicate that forecasters can use credible intervals to quantify this information, information which may be important to potential users of these forecasts. Several recommendations are made regarding credible interval temperature forecasting on an operational basis.

1 This research was supported by the Institute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan, under IST Project 149, provided to the Engineering Psychology Laboratory.

2 The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of intervals of variable width and fixed probability. The use of such intervals, called credible intervals, permits forecasters to describe the uncertainty inherent in their temperature forecasts in a meaningful, quantitative way. The results of the experiment indicate that forecasters can use credible intervals to quantify this information, information which may be important to potential users of these forecasts. Several recommendations are made regarding credible interval temperature forecasting on an operational basis.

1 This research was supported by the Institute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan, under IST Project 149, provided to the Engineering Psychology Laboratory.

2 The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

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