Operational Forecasting Using Automated Guidance

Leonard W. Snellman Scientific Services Division, National Weather Service Western Region, NOAA, Salt Lake City, Utah 84147

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The impact of increasing automation of meteorological guidance on manual preparation of operational weather forecasts is discussed. There appears to be some evidence that forecasters are abdicating their meteorological input into the final forecast as automated guidance increases in quantity and quality. Results of a National Weather Service Western Region program to stimulate more forecaster input into the final forecast are given. Suggestions are made regarding “interactive” forecasting using on-station computers in the upcoming Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) era.

1 Paper presented in the session on Problems in Forecasting at the 57th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, 18 January 1977, Tucson, Ariz.; published with a slight updating.

The impact of increasing automation of meteorological guidance on manual preparation of operational weather forecasts is discussed. There appears to be some evidence that forecasters are abdicating their meteorological input into the final forecast as automated guidance increases in quantity and quality. Results of a National Weather Service Western Region program to stimulate more forecaster input into the final forecast are given. Suggestions are made regarding “interactive” forecasting using on-station computers in the upcoming Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) era.

1 Paper presented in the session on Problems in Forecasting at the 57th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, 18 January 1977, Tucson, Ariz.; published with a slight updating.

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