Clarification of Confirmation in the FACE-2 Experiment

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The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE) is a long-term program to determine the potential of dynamic seeding for increasing convective rainfall over a fixed target area. The first phase of FACE (FACE-1) provided strong indications for increased, seeding induced rainfall. The second phase, FACE-2 (beginning in June 1978 and ending in August 1980), was conducted in an attempt to confirm these indications of a positive seeding effect. The criteria for confirmation in FACE-2 were published in a NOAA Technical Report prior to program commencement. A clarification and sharpening of these confirmatory criteria are discussed in this paper. In addition, a minority position of what is to constitute confirmation in FACE-2 involving the use of linear predictor models also is discussed. This paper was written and accepted for publication before the treatment decisions of FACE-2 were known.

1This paper was submitted and accepted by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society before the treatment decisions of FACE-2 were disclosed. (Editor's Note: Paper was accepted 20 November 1981.)

2Office of Weather Research and Modification, ERL/NOAA, Boulder, Colo. 80303.

3Department of Statistics, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pa. 19122.

4217 Park St., Ft. Collins, Colo. 80521.

5Joseph Oat Corporation, Camden, N.J. 08104.

6Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences, Greenbelt, Md. 20771.

7Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.

The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE) is a long-term program to determine the potential of dynamic seeding for increasing convective rainfall over a fixed target area. The first phase of FACE (FACE-1) provided strong indications for increased, seeding induced rainfall. The second phase, FACE-2 (beginning in June 1978 and ending in August 1980), was conducted in an attempt to confirm these indications of a positive seeding effect. The criteria for confirmation in FACE-2 were published in a NOAA Technical Report prior to program commencement. A clarification and sharpening of these confirmatory criteria are discussed in this paper. In addition, a minority position of what is to constitute confirmation in FACE-2 involving the use of linear predictor models also is discussed. This paper was written and accepted for publication before the treatment decisions of FACE-2 were known.

1This paper was submitted and accepted by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society before the treatment decisions of FACE-2 were disclosed. (Editor's Note: Paper was accepted 20 November 1981.)

2Office of Weather Research and Modification, ERL/NOAA, Boulder, Colo. 80303.

3Department of Statistics, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pa. 19122.

4217 Park St., Ft. Collins, Colo. 80521.

5Joseph Oat Corporation, Camden, N.J. 08104.

6Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences, Greenbelt, Md. 20771.

7Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.

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