Corrections and Additions to Verification Study of Performance of 1976 University of Wisconsin Model

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  • 1 Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Cook College-New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station, Rutgers-The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, N.J. 08903
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Revised and complete verification statistics for mainland United States long-range forecasts made for the period 1976–80 by the 1976 version of the University of Wisconsin model are presented. Corrections to earlier published values are given, as well as skill scores obtained using a much more complete set of stations for which forecasts were made.

The overall skill score for the pentad temperature forecasts made for January, April, July, and October is negative (−0.14), while those for pentad precipitation and individual year July precipitation forecasts are positive (0.12 and 0.04, respectively). The individual year January temperature forecast skill score was unchanged at −0.08 overall.

1 Authors should submit manuscripts for this section directly to Dr. Robert W. Burpee, Editor, Focus on Forecasting, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, Fla. 33149. Four copies of each manuscript (text and illustrations) are required. Manuscripts should be prepared in accordance with “Information for Contributors” on the inside covers of a recent issue of an AMS research journal or with the Authors' Guide to the Journals of the American Meteorological Society (1983).

2Editor's Note: For comments on this paper and the previous verification study by Harnack and Sammler (1982), see Letter to the Editor by Bryson, beginning on p. 651.

Revised and complete verification statistics for mainland United States long-range forecasts made for the period 1976–80 by the 1976 version of the University of Wisconsin model are presented. Corrections to earlier published values are given, as well as skill scores obtained using a much more complete set of stations for which forecasts were made.

The overall skill score for the pentad temperature forecasts made for January, April, July, and October is negative (−0.14), while those for pentad precipitation and individual year July precipitation forecasts are positive (0.12 and 0.04, respectively). The individual year January temperature forecast skill score was unchanged at −0.08 overall.

1 Authors should submit manuscripts for this section directly to Dr. Robert W. Burpee, Editor, Focus on Forecasting, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, Fla. 33149. Four copies of each manuscript (text and illustrations) are required. Manuscripts should be prepared in accordance with “Information for Contributors” on the inside covers of a recent issue of an AMS research journal or with the Authors' Guide to the Journals of the American Meteorological Society (1983).

2Editor's Note: For comments on this paper and the previous verification study by Harnack and Sammler (1982), see Letter to the Editor by Bryson, beginning on p. 651.

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