An Example of Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting with a Global Analysis-Forecasting System

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The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental version of the model. A strong sensitivity to the parameterization of deep cumulus convection is found.

1 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U.K.

2 West Pawlet, VT 05775.

The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental version of the model. A strong sensitivity to the parameterization of deep cumulus convection is found.

1 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U.K.

2 West Pawlet, VT 05775.

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