El Nino—Southern Oscillation Impact Prediction

Neville Nicholls Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia

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The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon affects the atmosphere and ocean over much of the globe. The resultant atmospheric and oceanic anomalies can produce a variety of biological and societal impacts. Three examples of impacts that may be predictable by monitoring simple indices of ENSO are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of such “direct” prediction of impacts are considered.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon affects the atmosphere and ocean over much of the globe. The resultant atmospheric and oceanic anomalies can produce a variety of biological and societal impacts. Three examples of impacts that may be predictable by monitoring simple indices of ENSO are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of such “direct” prediction of impacts are considered.

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